Australian Open 2012: Rafael Nadal Will Stop Roger Federer's Hot Streak

If we've learned one thing so far at the Australian Open, it's that the rumors of Roger Federer's demise were greatly exaggerated.

If you haven't been following, all you really need to know is that Federer has made it to the semifinals and that he hasn't even dropped a set yet. Some sets have been harder than others, to be sure, but Federer has yet to drop one. It's also clear that he knows that he's not as young as he once was, as he's playing smart more than he's playing hard.

I have to admit, I underestimated Federer, and I have been forced to eat some words I wrote about him at the outset of the tournament and during the early rounds. I didn't think he was going to last. I was wrong.

Sorry, Federer.

However, as easy as it's been for Federer to this point, it's about to get a whole lot harder. He's breezed through the competition to this point, but now he has to get past his ultimate nemesis.

Rafael Nadal.

We've seen Federer and Nadal go at it before, and they never fail to entertain. They're a perfect match for one another, and it's certainly not uncommon for them to play a marathon match.

Will we see them play another marathon match in the Australian Open semifinals? 

Yes, I believe we will, and here's a spoiler: Nadal is going to win.

I don't want to say something stupid like Nadal always wins when he plays Federer, but he does win most of the time. Nadal has won 17 of their 26 matches, including nine of the last 12.

Moreover, Federer hasn't beaten Nadal at a Grand Slam since 2007. That was at Wimbledon, nearly a full five years ago.

Since then, Federer has gotten older and Nadal has gotten more and more banged-up. Because of that, the nature of this rivalry is still changing, which is awesome.

Nadal still has the edge, though. He still moves well and he can still make all the shots, and it's plenty clear that his right knee isn't hurt as bad as it looks. It looks like it should be hindering Nadal, but it's not. 

Yes, Nadal has been tested more than Federer has at Melbourne. This is especially true of Nadal's match against Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinals, which lasted four sets and more than four hours. But after he dropped the first set, Nadal gave Berdych everything he had and ultimately proved to be too much.

You just have to worry about how Federer is going to hold up when Nadal turns on the jets like he did against Berdych. Federer has made it look a little too easy at Melbourne, but he will do no such thing against his greatest rival. Nadal will make him work, and he will make Federer play even better than he has all tournament.

Like most Nadal-Federer matches, this one will not be over quickly. I'm expecting to watch at least a four-hour match that will test the resolve of both players.

In the end, Nadal will simply outlast his 30-year-old counterpart. It won't be the first time he's done so, nor will it be the last. These two still have a few great matches left in them.

This one will go the same way as most of the others they've already had: Nadal's way.

Prediction: Nadal in five.