Australian Open 2012: 5 Bold Predictions for Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray Semi

It's down to the Final Four at the 2012 Australian Open!

The Roger Federer versus Rafael Nadal semifinal is coming first. The two champions' matchup should make for great tennis and provide some great fireworks.  Check out my predictions for that match here.

But Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray's semifinal matchup is equally compelling.  Djokovic is the reigning World No. 1 and defending champion.  Murray is a Top-Five player and the two-time consecutive finalist.

Both players have a lot at stake in the matchup: Djokovic needs to win to keep his outstanding run going and cement his hold on the top ranking for 2012 while Murray stands to be a finalist here for the third time in a row!

Maybe the third time is the charm?

So, what will happen in Djokovic and Murray's semifinal matchup?

Here are five bold predictions!

Murray Will Start the Match Aggressively

Murray needs to come out and hit the ball aggressively to win this match.  My bet is that he knows that and will come out hitting on all cylinders!

Murray is a defensive player.  He always thinks "defense first" and waits for his opponents to make mistakes and dig their own graves.  But as he has learned in recent years, that is a recipe for top-five success and ATP Masters Series titles, not one that can get you over the hump in a Grand Slam.

Murray knows that Djokovic is at the top of his game right now.  He knows that the Serb will come out playing tough, aggressive tennis and try to blow him off the court.

Djokovic knows that if he can get by Murray quickly, then he will be well rested for his Australian Open Final matchup with either Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal.  So, Murray has to know he will need to match or exceed that aggressiveness to have a shot at winning this match.  

The bet here is that Murray desperately wants to make his third final here and will overcome his natural passivity and defensive inclinations....at least in the beginning of the match.  He will come out hitting hard forehands from the baseline and trying to dictate play, which will help him set the right tone. But whether he can keep that up for the whole match is another question entirely.  

The First Set Will Go to a Tiebreaker That Djokovic Wins

I think Murray will start the match aggressively.  But I also think Djokovic will match that intensity because he knows that Murray is only the first obstacle.

To win the title he will need to beat either Federer or Nadal in the next round, so losing the first set and getting bogged down in a tough match with Murray is exactly what he wants to avoid.

So, Djokovic will match Murray's aggressiveness, the fans will be treated to a barrage of grunt-heavy, hard forehands from behind the baseline and the first set will go to a tiebreaker. 

Djokovic will win that tiebreaker because Murray tends to freeze up on big points.  Even knowing he needs to play aggressive tennis to win, Murray will still slip into his own bad habits and play defensive tennis on the critical tiebreaker points.  Djokovic is more of a risk taker and his beautiful shot making will win him the first set.

Djokovic and Murray Will Both Complain to the Umpire

This prediction is an easy one to make: It's going to a tough, adrenaline-filled semifinal match.  So of course there will be some complaining along the way!

As we saw throughout the earlier rounds, players tend to complain to either the lines-people or chair umpires when they are losing or feel that the match is slipping away from them.  

Rafael Nadal's recent outburst in his match with Berdych is the best example; Nadal was in serious danger of losing the match, and the umpire made a bad call so he lambasted him on the court.

You can bet there will be some fireworks in this match as well!

Murray Will Take a Set off Djokovic

Many fans, pundits and writers are predicting an easy straight-sets victory for Djokovic in this semifinal. After all, Djokovic is playing his best tennis ever, he is the better player and this is his favorite tournament.

Is Murray really going to stand in his way?

Although they may be right, I would be wary of underestimating Murray.  He is a two-time defending finalist at the Australian Open, which means he has the chomps to make it through a tough semifinal.  He also knows that he needs to dictate play and use more aggressive shot making to win this match, which should stop him from playing only defensive tennis and getting blown off the court.

Pride will be in play here.

I think Djokovic will win the first set and I am not sure Murray will ever threaten to win the match.  But there is a big difference between a straight-sets defeat and a tough four-set loss. Murray will want to make sure Djokovic has to win a tough match to get through to the final!

Djokovic Will Win the Match and the Australian Open Title

Murray may take a set, but this is Djokovic's match to lose.  He beat Murray in the final here last year in straight sets and has his number in big matches.  I think it would be surprising to many if Murray actually pulled this one out. 

Here is the bottom line: Djokovic is the best shot maker in tennis.  He will keep Murray running sideways along the baseline.  Even if Murray comes out aggressively, which I expect him to do, Djokovic's punishing groundstrokes will keep pushing Murray further and further back as they continue to play.

Murray is naturally averse to the net so when Djokovic finds his rhythm and begins punishing him for playing offensive tennis, Murray  will revert to his natural defensive instincts...and lose the match. 

So expect Novak Djokovic to be holding the Australian Open trophy!