Australian Open 2012 Men's Semifinal: Why Rafael Nadal Will Advance to the Final

Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal will play a dream semifinal match at the 2012 Australian Open, starting at 3:30 a.m. (EST) this Thursday.

These two all-time greats dominated the game for the last decade before Novak Djokovic dethroned them last season.

This will be their 27th encounter with the Spaniard leading their head-to-head series with 17 wins against nine losses. The Swiss won the last battle in London, at the ATP World Tour Finals, last November.

Roger Federer is undefeated in official matches since last fall when he took the titles in Basel, Paris and won the World Tour Finals in London. He didn’t play his semifinal match against Tsonga in Doha earlier this year due to a back injury.

Federer is also the fresher of the two, as he had a walkover in the second round and hasn’t lost a set yet in the tournament.

Nadal reached the semifinal after a four-hour marathon match against Tomas Berdych.

Both men arrived in Melbourne with injury issues that don’t seem to bother either one of them up to now.

Since Federer seems to be in a better momentum, is better rested than Nadal and won their last match, one may ask why Nadal is still the favorite to advance to the championship match, on Sunday.

In the game of tennis there is a relentless thing called “matchup.” It dictates how well—or badly—a player’s game matches up against another player's style. It can be more determinant in the outcome of a match than any statistical data, ranking difference or number of titles held by either player.

Roger Federer is an overall better player, more accomplished and definitely more interesting to watch than Rafael Nadal, but his game simply does not match up well against that of the Spaniard.

The Swiss has a hard time adjusting to the high and heavy topspin shots coming out of Nadal’s forehand across the court to his one-handed backhand. He is pushed further and further back to the court until he finally gives Nadal a short ball that he can put away.

Furthermore, if Nadal makes the same adjustment he did against Berdych in the quarterfinal match—returning serves from inside the court—he will be able to take control of the points even on Federer’s service games.

Another fact in favor of Rafa is that the match will be played at night, therefore in slower conditions than if it were played during the day.

It will be a very interesting match to watch. Roger Federer, being as great as he is, obviously can win and advance to the finals. But he will have to overcome not only the toughest opponent there can possibly be on the tour, but also the demons in his head that are product of the only flaw on an otherwise perfect tennis resume.