Rafael Nadal: Rafa Won't Advance Any Further Than Semis at Australian Open

Most would probably agree that the top-four seeds in men's tennis will reach the semifinals of the Australian Open. That puts No. 2 Rafael Nadal firmly in the mix, but that's as far as he can go.

At this point there are really only four legitimate contenders in every Grand Slam tournament, namely Nadal, No. 1 Novak Djokovic, No. 3 Roger Federer and No. 4 Andy Murray. Because of that, Nadal should basically be able to waltz to the semis, but I don't like his chances after that.

Last year Nadal was the only one of the "big four" who failed to reach the semis in Melbourne, as he was upset by David Ferrer. I don't anticipate that happening again, but I would be surprised to see him win an inevitable matchup with Federer to make it to the finals.

Over the past few years, Nadal has gotten the better of Fed more often than not, but Rafa is currently dealing with a nagging tendon twist in his knee. It hasn't seemed to have affected his play thus far, but once he has to face elite competition like Federer, that is likely to change.

There is no question that Nadal acquits himself well on hard courts as evidenced by winning the Aussie Open and US Open one time each, but Federer is on another level. He has won four Australian Opens and five US Opens, making him one of the most prolific hard-court players of all time.

On top of that, I think Federer believes he has something to prove. Because he hasn't won a Grand Slam since the 2010 Australian Open, there is a sentiment that he is on the decline at the age of 30. A decisive win over Nadal in the semis and a possible title would silence his critics, however.

Nadal is still the best clay-court player in the world by a long shot, even when he isn't 100-percent healthy, but when it comes to the Aussie Open surface, he likely lags a bit behind Federer, Djokovic and even Murray.

I have to believe that Federer is a man on a mission right now, so Nadal is likely going to run into a buzz saw. In most other eras Nadal would possibly be the best player on every surface, but he is playing in a golden age in terms of elite players, so I think his potential is capped a bit in this year's Australian Open.