NFC Championship Game 2012: 49ers' Run Defense Will Guide Team to Super Bowl

When the Giants and 49ers square off on a soggy, Candlestick Park field, the team best able to win ugly will win the day. Over the course of the regular season, the 49ers have shown that they win ugly better than any team in the league. For the 49ers, winning ugly starts and ends with their run defense. 

With 77.3 rushing yards per game, the 49ers were far and away the best run defense in the NFL. The Ravens, who allowed 92.6, were second. That number looks even better when you look at the success they have enjoyed against some of the game's best backs. 

Running Back	Rushing Yards	Rushing Touchdowns
Marshawn Lynch (twice)	140	1
LeSean McCoy	18	0
Beanie Wells (twice)	60	0
Steven Jackson (twice)	95	0
Rashard Mendenhall	64	0

This is a team that didn't allow a 100-yard game (to a player or team) until Week 16, the same game they allowed their first rushing touchdown. 

The 49ers are not the same kind of defense that the Giants faced when they beat the Falcons or Packers. As we saw against the Saints, this defense punishes the man with the ball, even after allowing a big play. 

That assault will be too much for the Giants to overcome. With rain in San Francisco this week, the field is going to be wet. Weather.com calls for rain in San Francisco on game day, but even in ideal conditions, Candlestick Park's field is always slippery. 

If it doesn't rain on Sunday, it's going to rain during the week. That will keep the Giants' receivers from making fluid cuts. It will also hurt Eli Manning and the Giants' vertical passing game. 

On the other side of the ball San Francisco averaged nearly 128 yards a game on the ground, which is eighth in the league. The 121.3 yards a game that the Giants allowed was good for 19th in the NFL during the regular season. 

When the 49ers beat the Giants earlier in the season, they did so despite Frank Gore getting only six carries and netting zero yards. If they can beat the Giants without a big game from Gore, an average game on Sunday will be enough for the victory. 

The 49ers' ability to run and stop the game gives them a big advantage here. In a dome or in nice weather, the Giants would be much better suited to win this game. But on a wet field in San Francisco, the home team has the tremendous edge. As a result, they will be making a trip to Indianapolis. 

Prediction: 49ers 24, Giants 20

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