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NFL Playoff Predictions: 4 Things to Expect in Giants vs. 49ers NFC Championship

John RozumJan 16, 2012

For those that love watching pro football in general, the 2011-12 NFC Championship Game is going to be one awesome contest.

Kicking off at legendary Candlestick Park, the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers have had some memorable playoff games in the Bay Area. That being said, here are four things to expect come championship Sunday.

Tough Defensive Battle

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In 1990 the Giants and 49ers had one of the best postseason games of all time, filled with Hall of Famers both players and coaches alike, New York prevented a three-peat from San Francisco and won 15-13.

It was a tough, hard-fought defensive battle that was not an ugly game by any means. And you can expect the same from their 2011-12 teams this Sunday.

Each team has an excellent front seven that can control the trenches of any game. San Francisco prides itself on shutting down the run while New York is arguably the best at pressuring the quarterback.

Both are vulnerable against the pass more than anything else, but are also capable of locking down coverage early on and throughout the course of the game.

Don't expect more than 34 combined points between the teams, as the offenses are good enough and will find ways to move the ball. San Francisco must stick to its strength of slamming the rock on the ground and New York needs to establish the run against the 49ers' solid rush defense.

Also, the Giants need to exploit the 49ers early against the pass; doing so will create running lanes on the ground, but Eli Manning can't turn the ball over like he did twice in the regular season meeting.

Regardless of how clean or ugly this game turns out to be, it will be more defensively dominated than anticipated.

It's Won on the Ground

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If there's one way to match the 49ers, it's by proving that, no matter how tough it is, abandoning the run is not an option.

For as vulnerable as San Francisco's secondary can be in defending the pass, the 49ers will only succumb to that exploitation by knowing the opponent will continue to try and run the ball. New York may have finished the regular season dead last in rushing, but that's because they dealt with some legitimate injuries.

Against Atlanta in the wild card, the Giants collected 172 rushing yards on 31 carries and the Falcons were ranked No. 6 against the run. Then on Sunday against the Packers, New York drilled Green Bay for 95 yards on 27 carries.

Not what you would expect from a team who lacked on the ground in the regular season. And if the Giants stay true to the trenches, success will come. Otherwise, San Francisco's front seven will takeover the game.

As for the 49ers, it is their due diligence to feed Frank Gore early and often against a team with a solid pass rush. The Packers didn't try to move much on the ground and Aaron Rodgers found himself under much duress throughout.

The only way San Francisco can restrict the New York pass rush is to slam with Gore early. No matter what the success, the 49ers can't abandon the run or Alex Smith will be seeing Big Blue every series.

New York may have a weak pass defense; however, the Giants are very opportunistic when the pass rush gets going. And the only way to avoid any mishaps is by sticking to your strengths.

At Least Five Turnovers

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Sure, each team must run the ball to win but that doesn't mean turnovers won't happen.

Regardless of how much success they have on the ground, the 49ers pass defense is confident in limiting Eli Manning. They picked him off twice in the regular season meeting despite sacking him just once.

And for as much success Manning has had in 2011, he can still be turnover-prone at times. Plus, with the 49ers front seven they'll either force at least one interception and either a fumble or a second pick.

The question is how Eli bounces back against the best defense he'll face all season.

Alex Smith, on the other hand, will need to have success when given the opportunity. We know that Frank Gore is going to do some work on the ground, but New York isn't going to roll over either.

And when Smith drops back, you can bet that the Giants' pass rush will get some pressure.

If anything, Alex Smith fumbles more than once and may throw a pick if the pressure continues. We saw what a true blitz can do to him in the Thanksgiving Day game against Baltimore, and the Giants are just as good as the Ravens, if not better, at pressuring the quarterback.

No matter what Gore's success on the ground, The Big Blue Wrecking Crew will be coming on every snap, so Smith must be aware to rid the rock early otherwise a costly fumble happens.

Provided that San Francisco doesn't go three-and-out on most series, the defense can keep them alive.

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At Least Eight Total Sacks

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In addition to the turnovers, each quarterback is going to feel pressure every time they drop back.

Whether it's a turnover, throw away, completion or intended scramble, both Eli Manning and Alex Smith are going to be sore after this NFC Championship Game.

Last week the Giants sacked Aaron Rodgers four times and hit him an additional five times. San Francisco, on the flip side, sacked Drew Brees three times and hit him an additional 11 times.

For two of the NFL's most prolific quarterbacks with some of the game's best pass protection, New York and San Francisco's pass rush was ridiculously dominant in the divisional round.

As for this game, the coverage will be physical so anticipate the cornerbacks playing a lot of press coverage. That will allow the rush more time to get to the quarterback and, in doing so, will also wear down the receivers for later in the game.

If San Francisco wants to really blanket New York's passing game, it will jam Eli Manning's receivers at the line every snap and let the front seven take care of the line. Same with New York.

The Giants secondary of Kenny Phillips, Corey Webster, Aaron Ross and Antrel Rolle must play physical all game long. Because of Alex Smith's mobility, the pass rush will need that extra 0.5 seconds to get pressure.

Anyway we slice it though, expect at least eight total sacks because each defense's front seven is arguably the best in pro football.

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