NFL Playoff Picture: Breaking Down Final 4 Teams
College basketball has its Final Four, but I'll take the NFL's version.
Four fantastic teams remain, leading to two awesome games next Sunday with the victors heading to Super Bowl XLVI.
But as good as the Giants, Patriots, 49ers and Ravens looked this weekend, each is flawed—and each fantastic—in certain areas.
Here's a guide to each of the four clubs.
Baltimore Ravens
1 of 4Biggest Strength: Secondary
Biggest Weakness: Quarterback
Key Player: Ray Rice
Opponent's Biggest Threat: Tom Brady
The Ravens finally got a home playoff game this year and they made good, defeating the Texans. Now it's back to the road, where they've had tremendous success in the postseason since 2008.
We saw Ed Reed—for now, let's assume he'll be healthy enough to play Sunday—and even Jimmy Smith dominate at times against the Texans. But things will certainly change on their trip up to Foxborough. And not just because swapping T.J. Yates out for Tom Brady is like upgrading from a 1986 Oldsmobile to a brand new Ferrari.
It is essential that the Ravens' running game, which struggled mightily against Houston, be efficient.
I know the Patriots' pass defense is the worst in the NFL, but their pass rush looked a lot better against Denver and Baltimore really struggled to protect Joe Flacco last week. That will reduce the number of times Flacco airs it out, and every first down Ray Rice produces on the ground, means less plays for Brady.
New York Giants
2 of 4Biggest Strength: Pass rush
Biggest Weakness: Running game
Key Player: Eli Manning
Opponent's Biggest Threat: Vernon Davis
Again, the Giants are peaking at the right time. And it's for virtually the same reasons they won the Super Bowl in 2007: awesome pass rush, awesome quarterback play.
Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs combined for three vital runs in Sunday's victory, but unless the 49ers turn the ball over and drop passes as often as the Packers did, they'll need much more to return to the Super Bowl.
I'm confident that the Giants' pass rush will consistently apply pressure on Alex Smith, but Vernon Davis was a beast last week. Smith doesn't need a ton of time to get him the ball on quick hits. If the Giants don't have an answer for him—or fail to tackle him, like the Saints—they'll have a huge problem on their hand.
New England Patriots
3 of 4Biggest Strength: Passing offense
Biggest Weakness: Pass defense
Key Player: Deion Branch
Opponent's Biggest Threat: Ed Reed
Common sense suggests that the AFC Championship Game will be all about the passing game—the Patriots have a great pass game, and a (statistically) terrible pass defense.
But based on what happened last weekend—the Pats repeatedly pressured Tim Tebow, while the Ravens repeatedly allowed Houston to get to Joe Flacco—I think we should expect much more out of that New England pass coverage.
On a side note, as great as Tom Brady, Wes Welker and the two tight ends are, Deion Branch will be essential for victory. Ed Reed will be more concerned with Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski over the middle, or Wes Welker underneath, possibly opening Branch up down the sideline.
San Francisco 49ers
4 of 4Biggest Strength: Run defense
Biggest Weakness: Wide receivers
Key Player: Alex Smith
Opponent's Biggest Threat: Eli Manning
With the regular seasons that Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers had, it's fairly stunning that this year's NFC Championship Game will feature two of the NFL's most-maligned quarterbacks in recent years. Especially since both will be depended upon to continue carrying their teams.
The Giants don't have much hope for running the ball, but since the 49ers didn't exactly shut down the Saints' pass game—turnovers is what cost them—San Fran is vulnerable.
And as good as Alex Smith looked on Saturday, I doubt he can count on another seven catches for 180 yards and two touchdowns from Vernon Davis. He'll need Michael Crabtree and the others to step up and not drop passes.
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