2012 NFL Free Agents: Most Likely Destinations for Top Players

For 28 teams—those not playing in next week's Conference Championship—it's on to the 2012 season.

And although April's draft will be of tremendous importance for each of those clubs, in terms of improving and filling in holes, free agency is a quicker fix.

This upcoming offseason's crop of free agents has several studs. They'll all be courted by multiple teams, but in the end, someone will wow them with the cash.

Here's a VERY early guess at where those top players will ultimately land. 

No. 20: Vincent Jackson, WR

2012 Stats: 60 catches, 1,106 yards, 9 TD

Old Team: San Diego Chargers

New Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jackson has all the talent in the world. And he has the perfect size. And he has the stats.

But—despite rumors that the Chargers and Jackson are coming closer to a deal—he's probably going to ask for more than they're willing to give.   

The Buccaneers absolutely have to add a wide receiver this offseason in order to get Josh Freeman back on track. They have a young, talented crop but would benefit greatly from veteran leadership.

Assuming Jackson can provide some mentoring, it's the right move...depending on who they hire to coach.

No. 19: Peyton Hillis, RB

2012 Stats: 161 carries, 587 yards, 3 TD

Old Team: Cleveland Browns

New Team: New York Jets

It would be a huge mistake to let Hillis walk—he's so popular in Cleveland—but it's looking like they'll part ways. GMs don't say "We wouldn't be adverse to bringing him back," about players they are desperate to re-sign.

The Jets are clearly in a transitional phase and will be in search of someone to take the place of LaDainian Tomlinson. 

Hillis would bring a new dimension to that offense: He's be a great Plan B for Shonn Greene and can certainly contribute in the passing game. And I bet Rex Ryan likes his hard-nosed facade. 

No. 18: Alex Smith, QB

2012 Stats: 3,144 yards, 17 TD, 5 INT

Old Team: San Francisco 49ers

New Team: San Francisco 49ers

It doesn't matter if Smith goes out and throws five interceptions in next week's NFC Championship Game: After his performance Saturday against the Saints, there's no way that the 49ers can let him walk.

His and the team's rise is a major part of the reason, but now that they've finally validated spending a No. 1 overall choice on him back in 2005, they would be foolish to abandon ship.

They do have Colin Kaepernick sort of waiting in the wings, but he's still too raw to be considered a reliable upgrade at this point. 

No. 17: Cliff Avril, DE

2012 Stats: 6 forced fumbles, 11 sacks

Old Team: Detroit Lions

New Team: Buffalo Bills

The Bills promoted Dave Wannstedt to defensive coordinator, which might suggest they're heading for a return to the 4-3 defense. 

In that case, they really could stand to upgrade at defensive end. Not only would that take some pressure off of Marcell Dareus, but since the Bills were tied for the third fewest sacks in the NFL, they need a pass rusher as well. 

I'm sure the Lions want to re-sign Avril and keep that extremely talented front four together, but when they are investing so much money in Nick Fairley and Ndamukong Suh, it's going to be tough to pay him what he's worth. 

No. 16: Carlos Rogers, CB

2012 Stats: 41 tackles, 6 INT

Old Team: San Francisco 49ers

New Team: Atlanta Falcons

Rogers is probably more valuable to the 49ers than Alex Smith, but if they had to choose one to pay a boatload to, they probably will take the quarterback instead of the cornerback. 

He's said that he wants to return, but if the 49ers continue this run, his price will only increase. 

Now the Falcons are going to have to make a tough decision about Brent Grimes, but if they're going to spend millions on a corner, a bigger, more physical one makes more sense.

Besides, he just proved that he can help shut down the Saints great offense, something that should be the Falcons No. 1 priority. 

No. 15: Mario Williams, OLB/DE

2012 Stats: 5 sacks, 1 forced fumble

Old Team: Houston Texans

New Team: San Diego Chargers

Throughout the bulk of the regular season, Houston's defense showed no limitations, with Williams sidelined by his pectoral injury. And the same was true in the loss to Baltimore.

So as hard as it will be for them to part ways with the player they took first overall in 2006—passing up Reggie Bush and Vince Young—they probably will.

San Diego is a great landing spot for him. 

The Chargers—who will have a new defensive coordinator—will be able to use him in either a 3-4 or 4-3 and rely on him to pressure the passer as well as slow down the oppositions run, something that is critical in the AFC West. 

No. 14: Robert Mathis, DE

2012 Stats: 9.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles

Old Team: Indianapolis Colts

New Team: Jacksonville Jaguars

Changes are clearly on the horizon in Indianapolis, and as much as ownership is going to want to keep their two prized free agents—and cornerstones of their lone Super Bowl title—it doesn't make much sense.

Mathis will be 31 in February, and unless they can get Dwight Freeney to take a massive paycut for next year ($14 million), they can't pay two defensive ends a ton when there are so many other needs. 

Jacksonville continues to have one of the worst pass rushes in all the NFL, and Mike Mularkey needs to upgrade. And don't think stealing a division rival's star is far from their minds. 

No. 13: Marques Colston, WR

2012 Stats: 80 catches, 1,143 yards, 8 TD

Old Team: New Orleans Saints

New Team: Carolina Panthers

On the surface, leaving Drew Brees would be a terrible decision for Marques Colston: He's a literally made his career. 

But the Saints know they can survive without Colston—given the presence of Lance Moore, Robert Meacham, DeVery Henderson, and especially Jimmy Graham—which will prevent them from breaking the bank to keep him. 

Steve Smith may have had an awesome season in 2011, but he'll be 33 in May and they definitely will want to get Cam Newton another weapon in the passing game. 

No. 12: Stephen Tulloch, LB

2012 Stats: 111 tackles, 2 INT, 3 sacks

Old Team: Detroit Lions

New Team: Detroit Lions

Especially if they let Cliff Avril walk, the Lions will do their best to keep Tulloch, who was one of the few consistent defenders who wasn't along the defensive line. Detroit's defense was far worse that expected and will take an even bigger step backwards if they can't re-sign Tulloch.

Having said that, if the Lions were able to make a play on one of the big free agent running backs on the market—Matt Forte or Ray Rice—they won't have the dough to bring Tulloch back.

But that will be very hard to pull off. To be continued...

No. 11: Jermichael Finley, TE

2012 Stats: 55 catches, 767 yards, 8 TD

Old Team: Green Bay Packers

New Team: Arizona Cardinals

As is the case with the Saints and Marques Colston, the Packers would like to bring back Finley, but he can bail and that offense won't skip a beat in 2012 and beyond. So after a token attempt to re-sign him, they'll pull away from the bargaining table when the numbers get too high. 

In this era, where tight ends seem to be so valuable (Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Jimmy Graham), look for the Cardinals to try and join the trend: Todd Heap isn't in their long terms plans, and Jeff King is not the explosive player they need to take pressure off of Larry Fitzgerald.

No. 10: Dwayne Bowe, WR

2012 Stats: 81 catches, 1,159 yards, 5 TD

Old Team: Kansas City Chiefs

New Team: Minnesota Vikings

I just don't see any way that the Chiefs and Bowe agree on a price. After what Bowe did in 2010, then followed up with a very good campaign in 2011, he's going to want to be paid like what Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson is worth. Kansas City—rightfully so—won't do that. 

The Vikings are going to have to do something to stem the tide of Adrian Peterson's torn ACL and with Percy Harvin and Kyle Rudolph, they will have a nice trio to help Christian Ponder grow into the starter's role.

No. 9: Ben Grubbs, G

Old Team: Baltimore Ravens

New Team: New York Giants

As good as that Giants offense has been, they had the NFL's worst-ranked running game in 2011, and improving that stat will be a huge focus going forward. 

They preserved a lot of cap space by letting Shaun O'Hara and Rich Seubert go, and will probably save money on Osi Umenyiora so they can afford to upgrade.

The Ravens know that Grubbs is one of the reasons why Ray Rice has been so effective, but with that defense aging and the a decision about Joe Flacco and a possible extension on the horizon, Grubbs will be a luxury they probably can't afford. 

No. 8: Matt Forte, RB

2012 Stats: 203 carries, 997 yards, 3 TD; 52 catches, 490 yards, 1 TD

Old Team: Chicago Bears

New Team: Detroit Lions

Can you imagine the Lions offense with a running game? 

Can you imagine the Lions passing game with a tremendous threat out of the backfield?

It would give Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and Detroit the type of offense that can outscore anyone, including Green Bay and New Orleans. 

That has to be what the Lions front office is thinking: Stafford had almost no running game all year and he still threw for 5,000-plus yards. 

Sure they expect to have Jahvid Best and Mikel LeShoure back next season, but they know that these windows don't last forever. If they can add a player like Forte, they'll do it...and stick it to the Bears. 

No. 7: Reggie Wayne, WR

2012 Stats: 75 catches, 960 yards, 4 TD

Old Team: Indianapolis Colts

New Team: Washington Redskins

Stop me if you've heard this before: There are big changes ahead for the Colts. And whether or not they include the departure of Peyton Manning, they shouldn't break the bank to keep Manning's favorite receiver. 

Wayne just finished his 11th season, and even if you factor in the Colts quarterback woes in 2011, he's still not a top-10 receiver. 

That won't stop Washington, who can't be terribly happy with the production of their young receivers...i.e. not Santana Moss. And if anyone is going to overpay for a free agent, it's Daniel Snyder. 

No. 6: Marshawn Lynch, RB

2012 Stats: 285 yards, 1,204 yards, 12 TD

Old Team: Seattle Seahawks

New Team: Seattle Seahawks

Lynch and the Seahawks are in a curious position. He was clearly the best player on the offense and his presence certainly helped Tarvaris Jackson show great improvement. 

But with Matt Forte, Ray Rice, and even Peyton Hillis out there as options, I'm not sure how much leverage he'll have in the negotiations.

The problem with that logic is, he's only 25 years old and doesn't have the type of wear and tear that the others do. The Seahawks would be wise to pay him what he wants. 

No. 5: Carl Nicks, G

Old Team: New Orleans Saints

New Team: Atlanta Falcons

I don't want to suggest that the Falcons (or the Lions, for that matter) are trying to emulate what the Eagles did last offseason. But there is certainly a "going all in" feel to the next step in Atlanta.

They traded a ransom to get Julio Jones—which was the right move—and now they have even bigger holes to fill on defense. 

But even the other side of the ball isn't so stout. They struggled to protect Matt Ryan at times, and if you take away Michael Turner's Week 17 performance against a terrible Bucs defense, the running game tailed off significantly down the stretch. 

Nicks can improve both areas of need and, in the process, take away a key to the Saints offense. 

No. 4: DeSean Jackson, WR

2012 Stats: 58 catches, 961 yards, 4 TD

Old Team: Philadelphia Eagles

New Team: Philadelphia Eagles

There has to be a feel that Jackson is damaged goods at this point. Not only does he have that "personality baggage" that sent him to the bench at times, but he's had some injury issues as well.

That drastically reduces his value on the open market and will scare off potential suitors. 

But he is still a phenomenal game breaker on both offense and special teams, and you wonder if Michael Vick and Andy Reid both think they can reform him in short order. 

No. 3: Wes Welker, WR

2012 Stats: 122 catches, 1,569 yards, 9 TD

Old Team: New England Patriots

New Team: New England Patriots

If it were any other franchise, any other situation, I'd expect Welker to be long gone. But Welker is so popular and has such a good setup with Tom Brady that I think he'll take less to stay in New England. 

I also think that, as good as he is, other suitors won't think he's worth quite as much as those stats seem to indicate.

He'll be 31 in May, he has a surgically repaired ACL, and he's always had the benefit of truly great options beside him: first Randy Moss and now the Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez duo. 

No. 2: Ray Rice, RB

2012 Stats: 291 carries, 1,364 yards, 12 TD

Old Team: Baltimore Ravens

New Team: Baltimore Ravens 

Rice didn't deliver quite as much as the Ravens probably expected in their first playoff game, but he's still the key to that entire offense. 

And if they are going to head up to Foxboro and beat the Patriots, it's going to come on his back. He opens so much up for the rest of that offense because teams feel compelled to stack the box on first and second down. 

The only problem with re-signing Rice is that he'll probably be looking for Chris Johnson-like money, and (at least in 2011) that didn't turn out so great for the Titans. 

No. 1: Drew Brees, QB

2012 Stats: 5,476 yards, 71.2% completion, 46 TD, 11 INT

Old Team: New Orleans Saints

New Team: New Orleans Saints

I really don't need to even bother here, do I?

Barring a Peyton Manning-like injury that springs seemingly out of nowhere, the Saints will pay Brees whatever he wants: And don't be surprised if he takes less than he's worth to try and improve the team to a championship level. 

In this day and age, when quarterbacks rule, franchise quarterbacks—well, healthy, under-the-age-of-40 franchise quarterbacks—don't leave as free agents.