Predicting the Results of the 15 Biggest MLB Arbitration Cases

Salary figures have been exchanged and filed for MLB players and teams that may need 2012 salaries determined by arbitration panels.

More than a dozen All-Stars are potentially headed towards hearings this spring.

Arbiters in these cases consider old-school baseball statistics in their decision-making. Plate appearances, home runs and RBI totals are used when evaluating hitters, while batting average and stolen bases are of little importance. Pitchers need to accumulate innings pitched and wins, plus maintain a low earned run average. Relievers can help themselves with saves and holds.

Playing time is weighted very heavily in arbitration.

Ultimately, the panels will have to side with either the player or team in each instance where an agreement cannot be reached.

The following list includes a mix of outstanding first-time eligible players and consistent veterans. 

Asdrubal Cabrera (Cleveland Indians)

Player Amount: $5.2 million

Team Amount: $3.75 million

Midpoint: $4.475 million

The arbitration process was not kind to Cleveland Indians shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera his first time through.

He settled for $2.025 million, knowing full well that the panels wouldn't reward him for the three home runs and 425 plate appearances he compiled in 2010.

He surprisingly—and conveniently—discovered his power stroke this past season and stayed healthy. He even posted a solid .273 batting average with 17 stolen bases.

Cabrera will get his way if a long-term deal is not completed between the two parties.

Likely result: $5.2 million (Player Amount)

Alex Gordon (Kansas City Royals)

Player Amount: $5.45 million

Team Amount: $4.15 million

Midpoint: $4.8 million

Alex Gordon's 2011 stats mirror Asdrubal Cabrera's in the areas that are relevant in arbitration. Considering everything else, he actually had a better year.

Nonetheless, he is less likely to come away with his requested salary.

Performance dictates the raise a player receives over his previous season's pay, and Gordon earned only $1.4 million last summer.

Even if the team amount prevails in this case, he will have tripled his salary.

Likely result: $4.15 million (Team Amount)

John Lannan (Washington Nationals)

Player Amount: $5.7 million

Team Amount: $5 million

Midpoint: $5.35 million

On the mound, John Lannan can be rough to watch.

He has underwhelming velocity and registers very few strikeouts. He induces a lot of foul balls, which runs up his pitch count and often forces him out of the game after six innings (if not sooner).

Although he didn't miss a start last season, he mustered only 10 wins and 184.2 innings pitched.

It is tough to pick sides in this situation because he and the Washington Nationals are so close with their proposals, but I'd expect the club's to be accepted.

Likely result: $5 million (Team Amount)

Miguel Montero (Arizona Diamondbacks)

Player Amount: $6.8 million

Team Amount: $5.4 million

Midpoint: $6.1 million

Arbitration certainly isn't fair to catchers, who could never match the number of plate appearances that their teammates total.

Miguel Montero will be short-changed by $1.4 million this year due to this reality.

Despite being third-year arbitration eligible, Montero will come away with a measly raise of $2.2 million because his 553 plate appearances limited him to 18 home runs.

I'm sure he wishes the Arizona Diamondbacks would join the American League. A handful of games at designated hitter on days when he wasn't behind the plate may have made the difference.

Likely result: $5.4 million (Team Amount)

Adam Jones (Baltimore Orioles)

Player Amount: $7.4 million

Team Amount: $5 million

Midpoint: $6.2 million

Adam Jones did well for himself at this time last year.

His $7.4 million suggestion this time around is a bit steep, but it's far more reasonable than the Baltimore Orioles' counter offer.

Jones was healthy and more productive than ever in 2011. He stole 12 bases and batted .280 to further bolster his case.

Likely result: $7.4 million (Player Amount)

Nelson Cruz (Texas Rangers)

Player Amount: $7.5 million

Team Amount: $5.5 million

Midpoint: $6.5 million

31-year-old Nelson Cruz has yet to physically hold up through an entire MLB season.

His talent alone is deserving of his camp's $7.5 million salary request, but to the arbitration panels, he is basically Adam Jones with 100 fewer plate appearances.

He needs to take better care of his hamstrings if he expects to be a top-dollar player a few seasons from now.

Likely result: $5.5 million (Team Amount)

Russell Martin (New York Yankees)

Player Amount: $8.2 million

Team Amount: $7 million

Midpoint: $7.6 million

This decision is a no-brainer.

Russell Martin came to bat fewer than 500 times and wasn't consistent in the power categories. His batting average was mediocre too.

His defensive value will unfortunately not be considered.

However, the recent Jesus Montero trade will probably influence the New York Yankees to work out a multi-year arrangement with Martin.

Likely Result: $7 million (Team Amount)

Shaun Marcum (Milwaukee Brewers)

Player Amount: $8.7 million

Team Amount: $6.75 million

Midpoint: $7.725 million

For the first time in his career, Shaun Marcum eclipsed the 200-inning threshold.

On the other hand, his 3.54 ERA does not help him as much as you might suspect.

Starting pitchers collectively stepped up in 2011, and Marcum ranked 40th among qualifiers in that statistic.

A few more wins would have made this more interesting; 13 won't get it done.

Likely Result: $6.75 million (Team Amount)

Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers)

Player Amount: $10 million

Team Amount: $6.5 million

Midpoint: $8.25 million

The arbiters don't give a hoot about Clayton Kershaw's 2011 National League Cy Young Award.

A few things tell me that they'll like him, anyway.

He is in line to settle for a record-breaking, first-time eligible amount because of his 2.28 ERA (first in MLB), 21 wins (tied for second) and 233.1 IP (ninth).

Kershaw banked only $500,000 during that stellar campaign.

Likely Result: $10 million (Player Amount)

Jeremy Guthrie (Baltimore Orioles)

Player Amount: $10.25 million

Team Amount: $7.25 million

Midpoint: $8.75 million

Jeremy Guthrie and the Baltimore Orioles are miles apart on this one.

Duplicating his 2010 totals and then some is the only way Guthrie could have gotten arbitration panels on his side.

Instead, his earned run average was up half a run and he dropped off in the other significant measures.

I bet he can't wait to depart via free agency and find a club that can win with him on the mound.

Likely Result: $7.25 million (Team Amount)

Mike Napoli (Texas Rangers)

Player Amount: $11.5 million

Team Amount: $8.3 million

Midpoint: $9.9 million

Mike Napoli is not unlike his fellow Texas Ranger Nelson Cruz through the eyes of the arbiter. Both are outstanding players who ought to be denied their amounts due to a lack of playing time.

This will be the final time through arbitration for Napoli, who is positioned to be paid a handsome sum beyond 2012. There may not be a better all-around catcher in the American League right now.

Likely Result: $8.3 million (Team Amount)

Matt Garza (Chicago Cubs)

Player Amount: $12.5 million

Team Amount: $7.95 million

Midpoint: $10.225 million

Trade bait Matt Garza is worth more than what the Chicago Cubs are offering. At the same time, there's no way that third-party decision-makers will grant him an eight-figure salary.

He made $5.95 million for the 2011 season coming off a 15-win, 200-plus innings pitched effort.

He regressed in both those departments, though, so this process will not reward him with a hefty raise.

Slight savings like this may give the Cubbies enough available payroll to sign Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes.

Likely Result: $7.95 million (Team Amount)

Hunter Pence (Philadelphia Phillies)

Player Amount: $11.8 million

Team Amount: $9 million

Midpoint: $10.4 million

Hunter Pence is a shoo-in to win his case if the Philadelphia Phillies don't draw up a contract extension for him before the hearing.

The panel sided with him and his $6.9 million figure a year ago. Since then, Pence posted career-highs in plate appearances (668) and runs batted in (97).

His .314 batting average adds an exclamation point!

Likely Result: $11.8 million (Player Amount)

David Ortiz (Boston Red Sox)

Player Amount: $16.5 million

Team Amount: $12.65 million

Midpoint: $14.625 million

It doesn't matter that David Ortiz is a designated hitter—a fact that works against him in other discussions.

His 2011 salary ($12.5 million) is also unimportant, though, because it was from the extension of his 2003 free-agent deal and not a product of arbitration.

He is a nontraditional player to be going through this process, more experienced and consistent than anybody else set for a 2012 hearing.

Still, $16.5 million would exceed the position-player record, and I'm don't believe he's worthy of that.

Likely Result: $12.65 million (Team Amount)

Tim Lincecum (San Francisco Giants)

Player Amount: $21.5 million

Team Amount: $17 million

Midpoint: $19.25 million

Speaking of records, Tim Lincecum is going to make history through arbitration.

His asking price is comparable to the annual pay that superstars Adrian Gonzalez and C.C. Sabathia earn!

Alas, I doubt his 2011 season merits a $7.5 million raise based on the aforementioned criteria.

Lincecum won just 13 of his starts. That largely reflects the lack of run support he received, but who said arbitration was fair?

Likely Result: $17 million (Team Amount)