Every MLB Team's Aging Player Due for a Huge Regression This Year

Almost every team in MLB has that one player on the wrong side of 30 years old who is due for a regression year in 2012. 

We saw it with Derek Lee a couple of years ago when he completely fell off the map in 2010 after his fantastic season one year prior with the Chicago Cubs.

Here's a list of every team's player on the cusp of regressing next season.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Ryan Roberts

The Arizona Diamondbacks have the luxury of not having a lot of aging players on their roster. In fact, Ryan Roberts is the only starter who is over 30 years old.

Roberts came out of nowhere in 2011 and made a name for himself in Arizona. He had a decent year at third base and showed that he had some pop by hitting 19 home runs.

Roberts is a very tough player to predict, however. He doesn't have much of a track record, so it's hard to guesstimate if he will progress or regress next year.

But it's always a little skeptical when a player comes into his own on the wrong side of 30.

Atlanta Braves: Tim Hudson

Tim Hudson is 36 years old, and he's still pitching at an extremely high level. He won 16 games last season and pitched over 200 innings. That's a quality year any way you look at it.

His WHIP has also been lower than it was earlier in his career with the Oakland Athletics.

But how much longer is Hudson going to keep this up?

He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2008 from which he recovered quite nicely. But he also had surgery during this offseason to fix a herniated disk that bothered him after every start.

Hudson could pitch pain-free this season, but who knows how much longer his body is going to hold up?

Baltimore Orioles: Mark Reynolds

When you look at Mark Reynolds' stats in 2011 and see 37 home runs and 86 RBI, you might think he's a pretty good player.

But then you notice the .221 batting average and 196 strikeouts, and your perception completely changes. If you then look a little further, you'll notice the 26 errors he committed at third base—most in the MLB—and his UZR rating of -22.8—also the worst in MLB, and by a long shot.

Players like Reynolds who swing for the fences every time are the most overrated players in baseball. I could very easily see him have the type of season that Adam Dunn had in 2011.

Boston Red Sox: Marco Scutaro

Marco Scutaro is 36 years old and played the best baseball of his career in 2011. But how often does a player have a career year when over the age of 35?

With Jed Lowrie off the team, it's officially Scutaro's spot at shortstop this season.

It will be extremely difficult to have back-to-back career years after the age of 36. A regression for Scutaro in 2012 certainly isn't out of the question.

Chicago Cubs: Alfonso Soriano

Alfonso Soriano isn't the caliber of player that he used to be, but he's still not a bad player either. The Chicago Cubs fans gripe about him because he not worth anything close to what they're paying him. 

On top of that, he has poor work ethic and sometimes does not hustle after balls in the outfield.

If you watch a Cubs game every once in a while, chances are you'll see him mess a play up due to a lack of effort.

Soriano is 36 years old right now, and he's certainly not getting any younger. If he wants to be successful in this league when he's that old, he's going to need to show some effort.

I just don't see that when I look at Soriano. I won't be surprised to see his power numbers remain constant, but I fully expect his strikeout totals and on-base percentage to plummet.

Chicago White Sox: A.J. Pierzynski.

Last season, it was Adam Dunn.

Next year, I put my money on A.J. Pierzynski.

He'll be a 35-year-old catcher on a team that is in the beginning stages of the rebuilding process.

Cincinnati Reds: Bronson Arroyo

Bronson Arroyo has been an inconsistent pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds during his six-year tenure with the club.

One year, he'll win 17 games and have an earned run average of 3.88. Then the next year, he'll only win nine games with an earned run average of over five.

Arroyo is 34 years old and will be 35 when the season starts. He also gave up a career-high 46 home runs and 112 earned runs last season.

It's safe to say that Arroyo is on the decline, and he probably won't be able to live up to the $23.5 million he has left on his contract.

Cleveland Indians: Derek Lowe

Derek Lowe has been been on the cusp of crossing below the line of mediocrity for the past few years.

His ERA had been steadily increasing since 2005, but he still managed to be a quality starter in the bottom of the rotation.

But Lowe will be 38 years old at the start of 2012 and will be coming off of his worst season since 2004.

Don't expect to see the sinker-ball pitcher throwing in the majors for much longer.

Colorado Rockies: Todd Helton

At 37 years old, Todd Helton is still putting up some solid numbers for the Colorado Rockies. He hit .302 with 14 home runs and 69 RBI, which isn't bad for a player who is well past his prime.

While his power numbers have descended since 2003, he is still a professional hitter who can work a count and get on base. 

This might not be the year that Helton completely falls off of the table, but it's certainly in the near future.

Detroit Tigers: Octavio Dotel

Octavio Dotel is the definition of a journeyman.

He has been on six different teams in the last three seasons, most recently with the Toronto Blue Jays and the St. Louis Cardinals in 2011.

He had a decent year for both of those teams by posting a 3.50 earned run average in 54 innings pitched.

But at 38 years old, who knows how much longer Dotel will be able to keep it up.

Houston Astros: Carlos Lee

You have to respect Carlos Lee for what he's doing. The Houston Astros blew up their entire roster last season, and Lee was practically the only veteran who remained after the complete makeover.

Lee is certainly a class act for not saying a peep about the direction his team is headed.

However, Lee's power numbers have been on the decline since 2006. His 18 home runs last season was the lowest total since his rookie year in 1999.

At this point, I just don't see Lee turning his career around.

Kansas City Royals: Joakim Soria

Joakim Soria has been one of the most underrated closers in baseball for the past few seasons. From 2008-2010, Soria had an earned run average of 1.86 and averaged 38.3 saves per season.

But 2011 was a different story.

He had the worst season of his career after recording 28 saves with a 4.03 earned run average.

There is certainly a chance that Soria will rebound after his tough season last year, but Jonathan Broxton and Aaron Crow will be breathing down his neck for the closer role.

Don't be surprised to see Soria traded at one point in the season if his struggles continue.

Los Angeles Angels: Torii Hunter

Torii Hunter used to be one of the more exciting players to watch in baseball. He was athletic. He could hit for power. He was a regular on the "Web Gems" section on ESPN's Baseball Tonight.

But that was five years ago.

Hunter is now 36 years old and entering the final year of his five-year, $90 million contract he signed in 2008.

Sometimes players step their games up during a contract year, but Hunter is at the point in his career where his productivity will start to steadily decline.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Aaron Harang

Aaron Harang was simply the latest pitcher to experience the home-field advantage that Petco Park brings to its pitchers.

He deserved it, however, since he did spend eight years pitching for the Reds in The Great American Ballpark.

Harang is now in Dodger blue, so his numbers will probably decline after moving to Dodger Stadium.

Miami Marlins: Carlos Zambrano

It was difficult to find a player on the Miami Marlins who was aging, let alone due for a regression in 2012.

Omar Infante and John Buck are the only two players in the starting lineup who are over 30 years old, and they both are barely into their 30s.

But Carlos Zambrano could go either way this season. He has a lot of mileage on that arm, since he's been pitching in the majors since he was 20 years old.

I could see him returning to his old form under the leadership of Ozzie Guillen, the new manager of the Marlins. Or, I could see him turning into a headcase and finding himself off of the team at one point in the season.

Milwaukee Brewers: Randy Wolf

Randy Wolf has been a consistent starting pitcher over the course of the past four years.

At age 35 and with a history of injury problems, however, Wolf is a prime candidate to have a down year in 2012.

Minnesota Twins: Carl Pavano

Carl Pavano's career has been riddled with injuries. He has only made more than 30 starts in a season three times in the past nine years.

He had a fine year in 2010 with the Minnesota Twins, which was his best season since 2004. But Pavano posted another losing record in 2011 and had an earned run average of 4.30.

He just turned 36 years old, so we'll see how much gas he has left in the tank.

New York Mets: R.A. Dickey

It actually wasn't that bad of a season for R.A Dickey in 2011.

Even though the New York Mets knuckleballer had a losing record—8-13—he still had a respectable 3.28 earned run average. He had an even better individual season in 2010, when he posted a 2.84 earned run average.

But Dickey is 37 years old, and that's exactly when Tim Wakefield began to see his numbers decline.

You never know with a knuckleballer, though. It seems like they can pitch for an eternity.

New York Yankees: Derek Jeter

Saying that Derek Jeter is going to regress next season was a challenging thing to do. But let's face it, Yankees fans: He isn't going to be an All-Star for the rest of his career.

He is going to fall off the map at some point in his career. And since he'll be 38 years old at the beginning of next year, chances are it's going to be sooner rather than later.

His numbers haven't been dropping lately because he's a professional hitter. He knows how to work a count and take what the pitcher gives him. This is why he could potentially play at a high level for a couple more years.

I could easily see Jeter being the next Omar Vizquel, but he played for so long because of his defense. Even though Jeter is nifty with the glove, Vizquel had much more range than Jeter does at this point in his career.

It will be very interesting to see how long Jeter can remain at shortstop and be an effective hitter.

Oakland Athletics: Coco Crisp

Coco Crisp might've found a home in Oakland.

However, he's practically the only player on the A's roster who can qualify for this list. He is literally the only player over 30 in the starting lineup.

But Crisp having a down year in 2012 does make sense in some ways. He had a solid year for the A's last season and stole a career-high 49 bases.

He's 32 years old next year, however, and will be batting in a lineup with a ton of unproven prospects. Duplicating his 2011 season next year might be a difficult task.

Philadelphia Phillies: Jimmy Rollins

Jimmy Rollins has been on the decline ever since his MVP season in 2007.

His batting average and slugging percentage have gone down every year since, with the exception of 2010-2011.

He recently signed a new three-year contract worth $33 million, which is a lot of money for a player putting up pedestrian numbers like he is.

When a shortstop is showing signs of slowing down at 32 years old, it is certainly a red flag. I don't expect Rollins to reverse this downward trend anytime soon.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Clint Barmes

It was either between Clint Barmes or Rod Barajas for the player on the Pittsburgh Pirates who is due for a regression this year.

As you can see, it's slim picking.

However, the Pirates did pay Barmes a lot of money for the caliber of player he is. I don't know if he is truly worth $5.25 million a year.

He had one good season in 2009 with the Colorado Rockies, and that's about it.

San Diego Padres: Carlos Quentin

Carlos Quentin is one of those players who can have any type of season, and I wouldn't be surprised.

We know he can hit for power. We also saw that he can be a well-rounded hitter after his impressive season in 2008, when he hit .288 with 36 home runs and 100 runs batted in.

However, he hasn't been able to hit above .255 in his other five seasons in the majors.

Now he'll be playing with the San Diego Padres and batting in a lineup with absolutely no protection around him. He'll also be hitting in a pitcher-friendly park, so that will bring his power numbers down as well.

It could be a rough season for Quentin, or he could go off since he's back home in San Diego.

San Francisco Giants: Ryan Vogelsong

Out of all the players on this list, Ryan Vogelsong could be the one to watch most closely.

Good things happen to those who wait, and that statement holds true for Vogelsong and his Cinderella story in 2011.

Many thought his MLB career was over after 2006, after he left to pitch in Japan. But the San Francisco Giants gave him a chance, and he ran with it.

He finished with a 2.64 earned run average and went 13-7. He also earned a spot on the 2011 All-Star team.

But did Vogelsong catch lightning in a bottle last year, or was 2011 not a fluke? He did slow down in the second half of the season, with a 3.26 earned run average after the All-Star break.

It will be extremely hard for Vogelsong to repeat his success from last season, since it truly was a fantastic season. I fully expect him to be a solid starting pitcher, but he will somewhat regress in 2012.

Seattle Mariners: Ichiro Suzuki

It was the first time in Ichiro Suzuki's 11-year MLB career that he batted under .300. In fact, he batted .272, which was 31 points lower than his previous career low.

But then you look at his stat page and suddenly realize that he's 38 years old. He certainly hasn't been playing like his age for the majority of his career until 2011 came along.

His BABIP was .295, which was by far the worst in his career. A BABIP of .295 isn't bad at all for a 38-year-old, but Ichiro's career average is .351.

If Ichiro doesn't show any signs of improvement next year, we might be witnessing the demise of one of the greatest Japanese players to ever play in MLB.

St. Louis Cardinals: Rafael Furcal

There was a day when Rafael Furcal was considered to be a top-five shortstop in MLB.

However, he is 34 years old now, and it's safe so say that he has lost a step or two since then. Due to lingering injuries, Furcal hasn't consistently played at a high level since 2006.

Lance Berkman would've been an intriguing selection for the St. Louis Cardinals since it's going to be difficult to repeat his success from 2011.

However, don't be surprised to see Furcal's numbers continue to slide next year.

Tampa Bay Rays: Kyle Farnsworth

Kyle Farnsworth had a solid year acting as the Tampa Bay Rays' closer in 2011.

He had 25 saves and a 2.18 earned run average. However, it was the first time that Farnsworth took the ball in the ninth inning on a regular basis since 2005.

Farnsworth is 35 years old and will be 36 by the time the season starts. He isn't getting any younger and hasn't had much experience closing out games.

If Farnsworth struggles at the beginning of the year, don't be surprised to see the Rays shop around for a more established closer.

Texas Rangers: Colby Lewis

Colby Lewis has been in and out of baseball since 2002.

However, he has now found a home in Arlington, Texas, and will likely be the No. 1 starter in the Texas Rangers pitching rotation.

His previous two years with the club have been decent, but nothing to really brag about. He won 14 games last year, but his earned run average was a disappointing 4.40.

Lewis is now 32 years old and will have the pressure of being the top-dog of the staff. Don't be surprised to see Derek Holland step up big next year and dethrone Lewis as the team's ace.

Toronto Blue Jays: Darren Oliver

He's 41 years old!

Something's got to give.

Washington Nationals: Jayson Werth

I'm sorry, Washington Nationals fans, but the Jayson Werth signing is going to go down as one of the worst in the history of the game.

There is no way that Werth is worth—no pun intended—anything close to $100 million, and he got $126 million over seven years.

Werth will simply never be able to live up to that contract, and don't expect his productivity to increase either.

His .258 batting average last season was not a result of feeling the pressure from signing that mega-deal, but rather a product of hitting in Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.