5 Reasons Matt Barkley Should Have Chosen the NFL

Matt Barkley made the wrong decision when he chose to forego the 2012 NFL Draft in favor of another season with the USC Trojans, plain and simple.

Despite some questions about his having the physical tools necessary to be an NFL quarterback, Barkley was projected to be a top-10 pick after his near-perfect season with USC. Like fellow Pac-12 quarterback Andrew Luck before him, Matt Barkley chose another year in college when 20+ million dollars was his for the taking.

Here are five reasons why the USC quarterback will regret this decision a year from now when he's preparing for the draft he should have entered 12 months earlier.

Delaying the Growth Period at the Next Level

There is certainly some valuable experience to be gained from playing college football. But Matt Barkley has been with the USC Trojans for three years now, and there's probably not much more he can learn from that coaching staff or from playing inferior competition (even the elite Pac-12 teams like the Oregon Ducks have bad defenses).

Every new NFL quarterback talks about the difficulty of the adjustment required when moving to the professional level. The opposing coaches are smarter with more complex systems, the defenses they face are faster and more disciplined, and the plays they are running are harder to learn and execute.

Matt Barkley will have to face that demanding transition no matter how much experience he gets at the college level. He's just delaying that, and as I see it, wasting a year in the prime of his career.

The Possibility of Injuries

In this day and age, and also with NCAA and NFL players getting the best medical care, most injuries aren't as serious as they once were. Lawrence Taylor's infamous hit on Joe Theismann probably wouldn't have ended the Washington Redskins quarterback's career if it happened today.

However, a serious injury to Matt Barkley next year which kept him off the field, ended his season with the USC Trojans, or brought about questions of his health the next year once he was in the NFL could tank his draft stock.

Risk/Reward with His NFL Draft Stock

Just about every NFL Draft analyst had Matt Barkley projected as a first-round (and typically top-10) pick for the 2012 NFL Draft a few weeks ago. ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. had him listed No. 6 on the last Big Board published before Barkley announced he was staying.

Best-case scenario for Barkley is that he has a monster season and becomes the top pick for the 2013 NFL Draft. But if he falls apart, the worst-case scenario is his stock plummets and he is subsequently taken in a later round of next year's draft.

Top-10 picks typically get comparable rookie contracts (especially with the new CBA which limits the money elite rookies can get). Last year, top pick Cam Newton signed a four-year deal with the Carolina Panthers with $22 million guaranteed. A.J. Green, who was taken fourth by the Cincinnati Bengals, signed a four-year deal worth $19.6 million guaranteed.

If Barkley had declared this season, he would have almost certainly gotten a similar contract to Andrew Luck. He can't do much better next season. But if somehow things go wrong, he could end up losing millions.

Missing the Year of the Quarterback?

It seems like more than any other year in recent memory, this NFL season was marked by a number of teams showing a desperate need for a quarterback.

The Seattle Seahawks, Washington Redskins, and Miami Dolphins all need a premier passer immediately, while the Kansas City Chiefs, Indianapolis Colts, San Francisco 49ers, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers all have question marks at the position.

With Andrew Luck perhaps the most sought-after quarterback of the decade and Robert Griffin III greatly boosting his stock with his Heisman Trophy-winning season, the presence of Matt Barkley in this draft could have presented the best first round for quarterbacks since the famed 1983 NFL Draft.

While it doesn't particularly matter that Barkley will be eliminating the possibility of three quarterbacks taken in the top 10, he may be missing a prime opportunity this year when a number of teams are ready to go all-in for a quarterback.

He's Already Reached His Ceiling

Matt Barkley had a nearly perfect season with the USC Trojans. He threw for 39 touchdowns with just seven interceptions, while posting a very impressive passing efficiency of 161.2. His numbers were considerably better than his previous two as the USC starting quarterback, when he threw 26 picks and just 41 touchdowns combined.

Moreover, Barkley played phenomenally in the Trojans' three biggest games, accruing 10 touchdowns with just two interceptions in USC's matchups against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Oregon Ducks (both of whom they beat), and Stanford Cardinal (who they lost to in triple-overtime).

With the bar set so high, it's unlikely that Barkley can play that well again next season. Even if he can, the questions about his size and arm strength will likely keep him from being the No. 1 overall pick anyway. And if he plays poorly, it will fuel his critics' fire and those questions about his physical attributes will be raised even more often. He probably can't do any better than he would have done in the 2012 NFL Draft.