Every NBA Team's Biggest 2025 Trade Deadline Fear
The NBA trade deadline is inherently scary.
For starters, it's the last chance for teams to address their weaknesses ahead of the stretch run. Fail to secure help now, and you're stuck dancing with the ones that brung you.
Not every team is looking for upgrades, but even the ones that need to sell off assets or clean up their books will have to wait until the summer (potentially paying tax penalties for their inaction) before sorting things out.
Urgency, deception, cutthroat negotiating tactics—all of them peak as we near Feb. 6.
If your favorite team isn't at least a little spooked, something's wrong.
Atlanta Hawks: Being Stuck in the Middle
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The Atlanta Hawks are just a couple games shy of a top-six position in the East, but a surge by the Philadelphia 76ers could knock them out of the Play-In round. Jalen Johnson's season-ending shoulder injury doesn't exactly help, either.
That middling status makes it difficult to pin down the ideal deadline strategy.
Tanking is out of the question with the San Antonio Spurs controlling the Hawks' 2025, 2026 and 2027 first-round picks, but it's hard to see major postseason upside in a go-for-it scenario.
So should Atlanta try to sell off Clint Capela and Larry Nance Jr.'s expiring contracts, bringing back a $40 million player with more money on the books in the coming seasons?
Or should the Hawks let those salaries expire, an increasingly likely scenario for many teams in the new CBA environment?
Losing control of three years' worth of draft picks has a simplifying effect in that it rules out deliberate losing. But it also feels eerily similar to jogging on the treadmill of mediocrity. Atlanta should be wary of settling into that state.
Boston Celtics: That They Actually Need an Upgrade
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A full month of .500 ball could still merely be a symptom of championship malaise. But the longer the Boston Celtics continue piling up wins and losses in almost equal measure, the more it starts to seem like they might actually need to make a move at the trade deadline.
That's a problem.
Boston is hamstrung by the second apron, can't aggregate players in trades and doesn't have many mid-tier salaries to offer.
Most Celtics fans know the most frequently suggested deadline move for the 2024 champs is an offload of Jaden Springer's contract, which would save around $16 million in salary and luxury tax payments if executed without taking any money back.
If circumstances have changed and Boston now needs a backup wing or another combo forward who'd actually feature in the rotation, pickings are going to be slim.
Brooklyn Nets: Cam Johnson's Unlikely Bonuses Scuttle a Deal
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The Brooklyn Nets aren't going to engineer a one-season turnaround, and they don't have to. They regained control of both their 2025 and 2026 first-round picks from the Houston Rockets over the summer and can slow-play this year's deadline if they don't like the offers for Cam Johnson, who remains among the most likely players to change teams.
That said, Johnson's value feels near its high, and the Nets should be motivated to move him by Feb. 6.
One potential hangup: Johnson has $4.5 million in unlikely bonuses that will count toward the apron on any acquiring team's cap sheet.
Combined with the league's collective unwillingness to part with first-round picks (Brooklyn only got seconds in earlier deals Dennis Schröder and Dorian Finney-Smith), offers might not be as good for Johnson as the Nets would like.
That's not a huge issue for a team with a relatively long rebuild timeline, but there's also no guarantee Johnson will be as valuable over the summer or at next year's deadline.
Charlotte Hornets: Other Teams Value Draft Picks over Upgrades
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Over the last year, the Charlotte Hornets have added two future first-round picks and 11 future second-rounders, clear indications they're taking a long-view approach. The best way to add to that stockpile would be to move Miles Bridges in a deal for a worse (but similarly large) contract while taking on additional draft assets for the trouble.
That won't be possible if potential trade partners are more motivated to keep their picks than they are to get rid of bad money.
Take the Milwaukee Bucks as an example. They could send Khris Middleton to the Hornets with their 2031 first-rounder, taking Bridges back. That'd make Milwaukee younger and more athletic, but the Bucks might simply decide they can't part with even a distant first for an upgrade (your mileage may vary on whether Bridges is an upgrade over the currently diminished version of Middleton).
The point is, Charlotte needs trade partners with some level of desperation, and it's not clear many will emerge.
Chicago Bulls: This Isn't the End
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This is more of a fear for Chicago Bulls fans than the franchise itself—you know, the ones who've had to endure several seasons of "blah" basketball with limited upside and seemingly no ambition from the front office.
The Bulls should move on from Zach LaVine and Nikola Vučević, as long as the returns are even marginally positive. That's the easy part, though the organization has certainly made decisions to prioritize the future look hard in the past. From there, Chicago needs to strongly consider dealing Coby White, Ayo Dosunmu and Lonzo Ball—the first two because they have legitimate value and probably can't be extended prior to free agency, and the third because his contract is expiring.
Chicago has hesitated to start its rebuild for too long, so the fear that the trend will continue is well-founded. Here's hoping this is the trade deadline that finally brings a change in direction.
Cleveland Cavaliers: They Can't Duck the Tax Without Losing a Key Player
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The simplest way for the Cleveland Cavaliers to trim the $1.7 million they need to get under the luxury tax is to move Tristan Thompson in a deal that brings back no additional salary.
If Cleveland values the veteran's presence, though, trickier moves may be necessary. Everyone who makes more than Thompson's $2 million this season is actually important to the Cavs' short- or long-term plans.
Sam Merrill ($2.1 million) isn't expendable for nothing, and rookie Jaylon Tyson ($3.3 million) shouldn't be a salary dump a little over halfway into his first season. The further up the pay scale you go, the more integral the player is to Cleveland's championship pursuit.
Ducking the luxury tax isn't some massive priority when you're as close to making a major playoff run as Cleveland is, but it'd still be nice to get in on the disbursements from tax-paying teams while running away with the East.
Dallas Mavericks: Fans Revolt
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The Dallas Mavericks traded Luka Dončić late Saturday night in one of the most shocking moves in recent NBA history, and they apparently did so without canvassing the league to drive a bidding war.
It's possible the conditioning issues ESPN's Tim MacMahon cited as part of the reason for the deal will persist, and that Dončić won't sustain his historic production as a member of the Los Angeles Lakers. Try telling that to Mavs fans who just watched a mid-20s MVP candidate—one they just watched lead them to the NBA Finals—leave for a soon-to-be 32-year-old with his own injury issues.
Anthony Davis is a future Hall of Famer, but when he's inducted several years form now, Dončić could be in the middle of leading the Lakers to another title.
Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray Can't Sustain This
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Jamal Murray looked cooked at the start of the season (and over the summer with Team Canada for that matter), but the Denver Nuggets' second-best player has rounded into form lately.
Murray averaged 22.0 points and 6.7 assists on a 46.8/42.4/91.1 shooting split in December and has been nearly that good in January. It's no coincidence that Denver has righted the ship and appears as likely to finish second in the West as any other team.
If this is the version of Murray that Denver can count on for the rest of the regular season and playoffs, the urgency to make a deal diminishes. That'd be ideal because the Nuggets are over the first apron, short on movable salary and even shorter on draft picks to sweeten deals.
If Denver buys into Murray's improvement and holds off at the deadline only to see him turn back into a pumpkin, it'll enter the playoffs with massive regrets.
Detroit Pistons: Playing Facilitator is the Wrong Move
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For months, the right decision seemed obvious for the Detroit Pistons and their $14 million in cap space: Play facilitator in another deal by taking money in with picks or a young player attached.
That's standard protocol for non-contenders and basically a requirement for any organization that's actually rebuilding, which the Pistons seemed to be.
Cut to this year's deadline, and Detroit is actually within striking distance of a top-four seed in the East. Led by first-time All-Star Cade Cunningham, the Pistons could conclude they're no longer the kind of team that helps others by farming out its cap space.
That'd be a risky call, but one Detroit could justify given its spot in the standings.
Ideally, the Pistons will continue to think in big-picture terms while acting opportunistically. If they want to get a little more flexible in their thinking and perhaps consider becoming buyers, that's fine. But they should still be careful and make sure they only ditch the facilitator role if no-brainer improvement options present themselves.
Golden State Warriors: They Misjudge Their Ceiling
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Public Service Announcement: The Golden State Warriors are not good enough to justify trading Jonathan Kuminga, Andrew Wiggins/Draymond Green and draft capital for any of the available upgrades at this year's deadline.
Jimmy Butler wouldn't get them into the contender class. Neither would Bradley Beal, Brandon Ingram or Zach LaVine.
This feels necessary to highlight, because a vocal contingent of fans and media are fixated on the Dubs doing something to give Stephen Curry a shot at postseason relevance during whatever's left of his prime. That's a noble goal, but not an achievable one in the current circumstances.
If that line of thinking feels like a concession, it is. Golden State got its cherry-on-top title in 2022. Maybe things will change as different players become available this offseason or next year, but the Dubs, well under .500 since December 1, don't have a ceiling that justifies a win-now move this February.
Houston Rockets: Missed Opportunities
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The Houston Rockets' biggest fear is purely hypothetical: There's a chance their stated commitment to standing pat will cost them a shot at a transformative player.
This is mostly about De'Aaron Fox, but it could apply to any number of other unknown options the Rockets could pry loose with their combination of draft picks and young talent.
Ultimately, Houston's desire to get more information about its core makes sense. The results are already excellent, as the Rockets find themselves all alone at No. 2 in the West. Allowing this group to develop without adding new pieces is the best way to determine where its strengths and weaknesses will lie when it's in its final form several years from now.
Plus, it's a lot easier to pass on whatever opportunities arise at this deadline when you know you can offer to restore the Phoenix Suns' draft picks for Devin Booker sometime in the next season or two.
Indiana Pacers: Myles Turner's Future
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Myles Turner's impending unrestricted free agency isn't technically a trade-deadline issue, but it's hard to divorce it from the Indiana Pacers' thinking.
Hugely important to Indy's operation on both ends, Turner might be "sneakily gettable and can be had for the right price" because "he's going to be seeking a contract starting in the $30-plus million range annually, and the Pacers aren't sure if they want to pay him that much," league sources told The Athletic's Jovan Buha.
The Pacers' fear, then, should be that they either keep Turner and lose him for nothing in free agency or trade him for a package that makes them meaningfully worse this season. Neither is a great option.
The smart move is probably holding onto him and paying whatever it takes to lock Turner down on his next deal. But it seems the Pacers might have to consider alternatives if they're unwilling to beat the market to retain Turner this summer.
LA Clippers: The Expectation to Buy
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Maybe the LA Clippers saw this coming, but almost no on else did. After losing Paul George in free agency and heading into the season with Kawhi Leonard facing another hazy injury issue, the Clips seemed bound for a brutal year.
Yet here they are in the mix for home-court advantage in the West ahead of the deadline.
That's a position you'd associate with a buyer, only LA is short on draft picks (they can trade one of their 2030 and 2031 firsts and swap the other) and lacking in obviously movable salaries. PJ Tucker's expiring $11 million might have some appeal, but probably not without draft equity attached. The Clippers could expand deals to include Terance Mann or Bones Hyland (they also need to shed $2.5 million to duck the tax) but again face the conundrum of whether to include a pick to get something done.
Any problem that arises because you're a better team than expected is definitely a good one, but it still puts the Clips in a dangerous position of feeling obligated to give up precious assets they shouldn't want to trade.
Los Angeles Lakers: Dallas Was a Rational Actor
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The Los Angeles Lakers just added Luka Dončić for Anthony Davis and a single first-round pick, a package that seems laughably light for a mid-20s superstar coming off a Finals berth—one who might have ranked second or third in the league on any unofficial "untradeability" list.
The only way any of this turns out poorly for the Lakers is if Dallas' reported concerns with Dončić's conditioning is not only well-founded but also not the only reason it decided to jettison a player on track to become the most iconic figure in franchise history. This is a team that once employed Dirk Nowitzki, by the way.
Barring additional reporting that Dončić's off-court behavior was beyond salvaging, or the existence of some kind of medical red flag, it certainly seems like Dallas made a franchise-altering error.
The only thing the Lakers have to fear is the slim possibility that the Mavericks acted rationally.
Memphis Grizzlies: Jaylen Wells Remains Their Top Perimeter Stopper
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Rookie Jaylen Wells has been better defensively than any rookie wing has a right to be. He plays exceptionally hard, routinely shoulders the toughest opposing assignment and has otherwise functioned as a plus starter on one of the West's top teams.
The Memphis Grizzlies should still be concerned about life with him as their top stopper after Feb. 6.
Wells lacks the size necessary to make him an ideal cover man for the league's top wings and combo forwards. The back-line presence of Jaren Jackson Jr. mitigates some of the worry on that front, and it's true the Grizzlies have fielded a top-five defense for most of this season.
Still, asking an undersized rookie to wrangle Luka Dončić, Kevin Durant or Jayson Tatum (which would only come up in a Finals scenario, but still...) is a bit much. Memphis either needs to get Marcus Smart to revert to his DPOY form of a few years ago or target a bigger defensive wing on the market.
Miami Heat: Missing the Playoffs
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The Miami Heat head into the deadline with more reasons to be fearful than most. They have to contend with taking back pennies on the dollar for Jimmy Butler, the possibility of having to absorb salaries that go beyond this season and the deeply awkward situation that'd result if Butler isn't traded at all.
We're focused on a longer-team source of worry.
If Miami fails to make the playoffs, it'll retain the protected 2025 first-rounder it owes to the Oklahoma City Thunder. That's not a terrible outcome, but the fallout is the real issue. If that 2025 pick doesn't convey, it becomes unprotected in 2026.
The Heat aren't the kind of franchise to bottom out, but the sheer exposure of having a fully unprotected first-rounder (to the dominant Thunder of all teams) should terrify any franchise—particularly one on the cusp of losing a star.
Milwaukee Bucks: Nobody Wants Pat Connaughton
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The Milwaukee Bucks can't take back more salary than they send out in a trade, can't aggregate outgoing salaries unless they dip below the second apron and only have one future first-rounder (2031) available to deal.
Those restrictions are the reason Pat Connaughton's $9.4 million salary is so important. If the Bucks can send the veteran wing into someone's cap space, it might allow them to duck the second apron. That way, they could aggregate salaries and get into the mix for major upgrades.
Of course, the Bucks would need to sweeten the pot with a draft pick in order to foist Connaughton on another team without taking more than about $3 million back, and that 2031 first-rounder is too valuable to be used for that purpose.
Milwaukee has few options. If it can't offload Connaughton, it might not have any at all.
Minnesota Timberwolves: The Fans Catch On
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There was a time when the Minnesota Timberwolves could have argued the trade that sent Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks for Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle was motivated by basketball reasons. Randle and DiVincenzo, in theory, could have been fixes for the team's lack of secondary creation and movement shooting.
The current results suggest more strongly than ever that the KAT trade was about money. Randle didn't help the offense, and DiVincenzo, now injured, didn't either. Ultimately the Towns deal made the team worse and the books cleaner.
Minnesota should be deeply concerned about alienating fans who've had to accept that truth by making another such move.
Currently $16.1 million into the second apron and looking very little like the team that made the West Finals a year ago, the Wolves could be primed for another salary dump. If that happens, it'll be another blow to a fanbase that deserves better.
New Orleans Pelicans: Brandon Ingram Stays Put
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It might be objectively true that holding onto Brandon Ingram through the trade deadline is the right decision, but it doesn't mean the New Orleans Pelicans have to feel subjectively good about it.
The Pels haven't been able to give Ingram away, despite a full season of clarity that his days with the franchise are basically over. No team seems interested in paying his next contract, and that means unrestricted free agency looms—typically a disaster scenario for a team in New Orleans' position.
A sign-and-trade this summer is still possible, which means the Pelicans won't be totally out of options. But it will still be immensely disappointing if Ingram remains on the team beyond Feb. 6. As much as anything, New Orleans should want this saga to be over. It's already gone on too long.
New York Knicks: Mitchell Robinson Isn't Moveable
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The New York Knicks aren't going to accomplish much at the trade deadline unless Mitchell Robinson is involved.
They need depth to alleviate the strain on their rotation players, another big man and maybe even a backup playmaking upgrade over Cam Payne. But because Robinson hasn't played this season, it's harder to sell potential buyers on him being a positive value at $14.3 million this year and $12.9 million in 2025-26. And without using him as the main salary in a deal, the Knicks can't really do anything of consequence.
It's possible Robinson can still return from injury and help the Knicks this season, but the longer he remains out, the harder it is to be confident that's true. That's why finding a team that can send back useful bodies for him is so important to New York's deadline plans.
If there are no takers for Robinson, the Knicks might find themselves in the tough position of watching other East contenders improve while they do nothing.
Oklahoma City Thunder: They Actually Need Help
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The Oklahoma City Thunder are on pace to post the best point differential since the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors, so they're justified in believing they don't need to do anything at the deadline.
But what if the Thunder take that approach only to realize too late that they actually do have a flaw or two that should have been addressed?
The offense is fine overall, but it clearly loses punch whenever Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is off the floor. Rebounding could still be an issue if Chet Holmgren isn't back to 100 percent upon returning from his hip injury. These may seem like minor, hypothetical flaws now. But even the tiniest deficiencies get magnified during playoff competition.
It'll be a bad look if the Thunder, a team with seemingly bottomless trade resources, hold fast through the deadline and ultimately realize they should have made some upgrades.
Orlando Magic: They Pass the Deadline Without Adding Shooting
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The Orlando Magic are the worst three-point shooting team in the last 10 seasons, and a squad with a flaw as glaringly historic as that one simply can't allow the trade deadline to pass without addressing it.
After weathering the simultaneous losses of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, Orlando is still in position to seize a top-six spot in the East. With their two best players healthy and still defending at a top-five clip, the Magic have zero excuses. They know what they need, and they should also know that even a modest shooting upgrade could result in home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
Loaded with tradeable salaries and well-positioned to send out some of their defense-first pieces in exchange for shooting specialists, the Magic have to act now. Otherwise, this will amount to a wasted season.
Philadelphia 76ers: It's Too Late to Tank
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With Joel Embiid's health again scuttling the Philadelphia 76ers' plans and a top-six-protected 2025 first-rounder owed to the Thunder, the temptation to take a gap year is strong.
Unfortunately, too many teams may have already beaten Philly to the punch.
Flattened lottery odds mean that even if the Sixers finish with one of the league's six worst records, keeping the pick may be a coin-flip situation.
In the East alone, four teams—Toronto, Brooklyn, Charlotte and Washington—are at least four games below the Sixers in the standings. In addition to having head starts in the race to the bottom, all of them have incentives at least as strong as the Sixers' to maintain terminal velocity on their nosedives.
That's to say nothing of the Blazers, Pelicans and Jazz in the West, each of whom are bottoming out as well.
The Sixers won't gain enough by being sellers at the deadline. And they can't be buyers either, because what team with a Play-In ceiling goes on a shopping spree?
Phoenix Suns: Bradley Beal Won't Play Ball
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Speculate all you want about the Phoenix Suns' potential acquisitions. No meaningful roster upgrades are coming if Bradley Beal decides not to co-sign them.
The Suns did this to themselves when they dealt for Beal and couldn't convince him to waive his no-trade clause as part of the bargain. Add that to the pile of reckless, short-sighted moves that define the tenure of owner Mat Ishbia.
While Beal hasn't made a blanket statement that he'll veto any trade, Fred Katz of The Athletic reported he "will not waive it just to leave the Suns, who moved him to the bench in early January."
Ironically, the only thing that might save the Suns from making another desperate win-now move is the one they made by acquiring Beal a year-and-a-half ago.
Portland Trail Blazers: Nobody Wants Their Vets
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A team as bad as the Portland Trail Blazers has no business sitting just $3.7 million below the luxury tax, but that's where things stand as the deadline approaches.
Any efforts to trim salary should start with moving Jerami Grant, who'll earn $103 million over the three seasons left on his deal after this one. Unfortunately, that deal may already be viewed as toxic around the league, to the point that Portland may need to part with draft assets to get it off the books. It should go without saying that the Blazers, who don't have a clear cornerstone in place, cannot surrender the draft picks that might eventually bring them one.
That leaves Portland in a dispiriting state of stasis—one it could change slightly by dealing Anfernee Simons, Robert Williams III, Deandre Ayton and other veterans, but one they can't completely eliminate as long as Grant is around.
The Blazers have to offload costly vets, but market interest seems low, and they can't justify adding sweeteners to change that.
Sacramento Kings: This Thing Is Still Rotten
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The playoff drought ended two years ago, and the Sacramento Kings more recently pulled themselves together after replacing once-unanimous Coach of the Year Mike Brown with Doug Christie. But De'Aaron Fox's reported desire to get out of dodge suggests the Kings' fixes have only been cosmetic.
The core of one of the most woebegone teams of the last 20 years might still be rotten. If that's true, the Kings have fears that should extend well beyond the upcoming deadline.
Fox has played for five different head coaches and lost far more games than he's won in his eight seasons with the franchise. That he's angling for a trade now, during what passes for a golden era of Kings basketball, indicates he doesn't believe days better than these modestly good ones are ahead.
The Kings should get as many picks and as much talent as they can for Fox, but they should be deeply concerned that the core issues that have held the franchise back—capricious ownership and management—persist.
San Antonio Spurs: Overpaying for De'Aaron Fox
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You can't blame a guy for wanting to exchange one of the most poorly run NBA teams of the last 25 years for one that has Victor Wembanyama, but De'Aaron Fox's desire to play for the San Antonio Spurs, per Kings insider James Ham, doesn't mean the Spurs need to act recklessly.
San Antonio is in a position of immense leverage, not just because Fox wants to join up, but also because its timeline is as long as Wemby's outstretched arms. The Spurs can play hardball to an extreme degree, knowing that Fox has effectively burned a bridge.
It might take three first-rounders to get a deal done, but San Antonio certainly shouldn't offer that up right away. The Kings are the ones on a ticking clock, and while the excitement of adding a true first-class running mate for Wemby will make it hard to resist, the Spurs should fight the urge to get a deal done on anyone's terms but theirs.
Toronto Raptors: Impatience
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The Toronto Raptors signaled their unwillingness to strip things all the way down when they prioritized actual players—RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley—in the OG Anunoby trade last year.
That decision was a precursor to team president Masai Ujiri's proclamation that "we will win here again" when the franchise agreed to new deals for Quickley and Scottie Barnes over the summer.
And now we've got NBA insider Marc Stein reporting on his Substack that the Raptors are "a team to watch" with respect to Brandon Ingram.
There's something to be said for targeting an asset like Ingram at what might be the nadir of his value, but the Raps need to be careful about misjudging their current proximity to success. Injuries have had plenty to do with it, but Toronto is all but assured to fall short of the Play-In.
That's not normally a position you'd associate with a buyer.
Utah Jazz: That Picks Aren't a Plan
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This is another fan-centric fear, as the Utah Jazz basically have nothing to lose (unless they foolishly trade Walker Kessler) at the trade deadline.
Unlike past seasons, the Jazz have dumped enough games in the first half to maximize their lottery position, which is a welcome change. Their failure to tank—hard and early—these last two years is part of the reason they need to hit big in the 2025 draft.
As it stands now, the Jazz haven't secured anything approximating a cornerstone since trading away Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell. And while all the picks they've hoarded (and packaged up to get even higher-value selections, like they did with Phoenix) are nice, the Jazz will have to find some actual players worth building around at some point.
So as Utah shops Collin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson, John Collins and all the rest, fans will be justified in feeling uneasy. Whatever picks come back in those hypothetical deals won't be helpful soon and, if recent history is any guide, might not wind up being helpful at all.
Washington Wizards: The Kids Aren't Ready
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If the Wiz brain trust determines the young core—Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington and Kyshawn George, not to mention promising second-year wing Bilal Coulibaly—isn't ready to operate unchaperoned, it could result in minimal deadline action.
The Wizards should be eyeing moves that send out Jonas Valanciunas, Malcolm Brogdon, Kyle Kuzma and any other vet deemed expendable. But if all the losing Washington has endured is already taking a toll on the culture, or if management believes the second-rounders it could secure in those trades aren't worth the cost of letting the youth develop bad habits down the stretch of this season, the right decision (holding onto the vets) could be a major disappointment.
Odds are the Wizards will go forward with trades that jettison veterans, but it'd be concerning if things went the other way.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
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