Ranking the NFL's Scariest Wild-Card Contenders Ahead of Week 14
With five weeks remaining in the 2024 NFL season, some teams have a big advantage in their respective divisional races.
The Pittsburgh Steelers, for example, have a 1.5-game lead in the AFC North and already have one win over the trailing Baltimore Ravens. The Buffalo Bills have already clinched the AFC East.
However, the wild-card race is fairly tight in each conference, and there's a real chance that a wild-card team could go on a deep postseason run this year. There's unquestioned value in winning the division and hosting a playoff game, but it doesn't guarantee postseason success.
Just ask members of the 2023 Dallas Cowboys or any team that faced the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who won the Super Bowl as a wild-card team.
This year's wild-card field is shaping up to be a dangerous one, and there are a few teams that divisional-winners simply won't want to see in the playoffs.
Here, we'll rank the top nine teams currently in the wild-card mix based on factors such as roster makeup, recent results and coaching.
A look at the updated standings and Bleacher Report's biggest takeaways from Week 13 can be found here.
9. Los Angeles Rams
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The Los Angeles Rams aren't the only 6-6 team in the wild-card hunt, but they rank at the bottom of our list for a couple of reasons.
For one, they have struggled against top-tier teams this season. They gutted out wins over the 7-5 Seattle Seahawks and 10-2 Minnesota Vikings, but those are the only teams the Rams have defeated that currently hold winning records.
Secondly, L.A. has had issues along the offensive line and in its defensive back seven. Matthew Stafford has only been sacked 28 times this season—15th-most in the NFL—but he's been pressured on 22.6 percent of his dropbacks.
The defense, meanwhile, ranks 21st in yards per carry allowed, 27th in net yards per pass attempt allowed and 21st in points allowed. A strong commitment to Kyren Williams and the ground game could help alleviate these issues, but the offense continues to flow through Stafford, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and the passing game.
L.A. ranks 11th in passing attempts and only 24th in rushing attempts. For the Rams, who play under a roof at SoFi Stadium, winning a playoff game on the road could require a philosophical change.
That said, teams won't be thrilled to see an experienced quarterback like Stafford or a terrific head coach such as Sean McVay in a win-or-go-home contest.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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At 6-6, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are currently outside of the wild-card picture by a considerable margin—the Washington Commanders hold the No. 7 spot in the NFC at 8-5.
However, Tampa is still in the hunt for both a wild-card position and the NFC South title.
The Bucs land near the foot of our list because their defense hasn't been particularly good this season. Tampa currently ranks 24th in rushing yards allowed, 30th in passing yards allowed, 28th in total yards allowed and 25th in points allowed.
Poor defense can be a big liability on the road in January, especially against teams Tampa would likely face as a wild-card club.
That said, it would be unwise to completely write off the Buccaneers. Quarterback Baker Mayfield is playing at a high level, offensive coordinator Liam Coen is scheming his way into a head-coaching opportunity, and the team has uncovered an elite rushing tandem in Rachaad White and Bucky Irving.
Perhaps most importantly, the Bucs have also shown they won't be intimidated by the league's best. They took the Kansas City Chiefs to overtime and have already notched wins over the 11-1 Detroit Lions and 10-2 Philadelphia Eagles.
7. Arizona Cardinals
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The 6-6 Arizona Cardinals are also hanging around outside of the wild-card picture. Like the Buccaneers, though, they're still in the mix for a playoff spot and their division title—the 7-5 Seahawks currently lead the NFC West.
We'll give Arizona the slightest of edges over Tampa, largely because its defense has started to jell under second-year head coach Jonathan Gannon. While the Cardinals are just 2-2 over their last four games, they've allowed an average of only 13.5 points per game during that span.
Arizona also has a strong rushing attack (2nd in yards per carry) led by James Conner and Kyler Murray. And when the dual-threat quarterback gets hot, he can be extremely difficult to contain.
Teams that can play sound defense and run the ball effectively always have a chance to be a threat late in the year. Arizona lost by a single point to the 10-2 Minnesota Vikings in Week 13 and will have another chance to test itself against the Seahawks this weekend.
Seattle won the first meeting with the Cardinals in a 16-6 contest that saw cornerback Coby Bryant score the game's only touchdown on a pick-six.
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6. Washington Commanders
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The 8-5 Washington Commanders would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, and they're a team that few would be happy to face. This is largely because of how electric rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has been during his inaugural campaign.
The talented dual-threat signal-caller has gone head-to-head with some of the best in the game and held his own. He can torch defenses with his arm or his legs, and he's proved the bright moments aren't too big for him.
Washington also has a fantastic head coach in Dan Quinn, who has led a team to the Super Bowl before. A strong rushing attack (5th in yards per carry) and an improved defense help give the Commanders a chance to win every week.
However, it's fair to wonder just how good they can be. Losses to Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Pittsburgh suggest this team may still be a year away from making a deep postseason run.
Washington has struggled against the run (26th in yards per carry allowed), and Daniels is still a rookie, so it's vulnerable against teams that can run the ball and pressure the quarterback. Daniels, though, is capable of taking over a game in a way that few other QBs can.
The Week 16 rematch with Philadelphia will show if Washington is truly ready to challenge a contender.
5. Los Angeles Chargers
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Will any team be excited about facing Jim Harbaugh's Los Angeles Chargers in the playoffs? Probably not.
Harbaugh himself is a big reason why. He has a proven track record of playoff success, having taken the San Francisco 49ers to the Super Bowl and the Michigan Wolverines to a national title.
L.A.'s first-year head coach has also constructed a team that is built to win on the road. It has one of the league's top defenses (fewest points allowed), a functional running game and a high-level quarterback in Justin Herbert.
At 8-4, the Chargers would be the AFC's top-ranked wild-card team if the season ended today. They'll have a chance to establish themselves as legitimate contenders when they visit Kansas City this weekend.
It's hard to place Los Angeles too high on our list, though, because it has struggled against top-tier teams. The Denver Broncos are the only team that currently has a winning record and has lost to the Bolts.
The Chargers also recently placed J.K. Dobbins on injured reserve with a knee injury. In their first full game without the running back, their offense struggled mightily—it took four interceptions, including a pick-six, to outlast the Falcons.
L.A. also lacks truly reliable receivers, outside of rookie star Ladd McConkey. Still, defense wins playoff games, and Harbaugh always has his tailored to his opponent.
4. Denver Broncos
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The Denver Broncos are becoming a team that could be truly scary in the postseason.
Denver (8-5) would hold the final wild-card spot in the AFC if the season ended today, but it's beginning to learn how to win in multiple ways.
The Broncos spent most of the early season leaning on their top-10 defense while getting occasional big plays from rookie quarterback Bo Nix. However, Monday night's win over the Cleveland Browns told a different story.
Cleveland regularly shredded Denver's vaunted defense. While a pair of pick-sixes gave the Broncos the winning advantage, they had to lean on Nix and the passing game to escape with the victory.
Nix responded with a strong command of the offense, several high-level throws and 293 passing yards. The Broncos now know that if they need the rookie to carry their offense, he's fully capable.
Denver's only loss over the last month was a 16-14 defeat against the Chiefs that the Broncos lost on a blocked field goal. If they can win their rematch with Kansas City in Week 18 and beat the Chargers in Week 16, they may enter the postseason with a 12-5 record and plenty of confidence.
Games against the Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals shouldn't be terribly daunting for this squad.
The Broncos have an experienced Super Bowl-winning head coach in Sean Payton and are just now entering their bye week. Come January, they'll be more rested than most.
3. Baltimore Ravens
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When things are clicking, the 8-5 Ravens have one of the league's most explosive offenses. Lamar Jackson is extremely difficult to contain as both a passer and a runner, and with Derrick Henry now in the fold, they have a truly frightening run defense.
The Ravens currently rank first in yards per carry, first in net yards per pass attempt, first in total yards and third in scoring.
Teams that can take over a game on the ground are always going to be dangerous in January, and that's not the only trait the Ravens feature. They have a Super Bowl-winning coach in John Harbaugh and, like Denver, a Week 14 bye that will provide much-needed rest ahead of the final push.
Baltimore has lost two of its last three, but it could easily win out after a week of recovery and refocus.
While the Ravens' offense is potent enough to make it the scariest wild-card contender in the AFC, there are some reasons for concern. Their 31st-ranked pass defense, for example, has been a liability all season. Traditionally steady kicker Justin Tucker also seems to have a case of the yips.
"I don't see that there's like a lack of talent. I think there's something mechanically that he's not doing consistently," former NFL coach Bill Belichick told SiriusXM (h/t Ryan Glasspiegel of The New York Post).
Playoff games often come down to narrow margins, so that's a problem.
Still, this is a team that was in the AFC title game a year ago and is getting even better play out of Jackson than it did during last year's MVP season.
If there's a wild-card team that the Chiefs, Steelers, Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills should fear, it's Baltimore.
2. Minnesota Vikings
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There are a couple of reasons to believe the 10-2 Minnesota Vikings could push their way into Super Bowl LIX.
The first is their familiarity with the Lions, who currently hold the NFC's No. 1 seed.
Minnesota lost its first matchup with Detroit by a mere two points. Since then, the Lions have experienced several key injuries on defense. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the Vikings win the Week 18 rematch and then roll into the postseason as confident as any team in the league.
Secondly, the Vikings are dangerous on both sides of the ball. While their 28th-ranked pass defense has been suspect at times, they boast the league's top-ranked run defense, a pass rush that has generated 39 sacks and one of the most balanced offenses in the league.
Minnesota ranks ninth in scoring and fifth in points allowed.
The Vikings have a good head coach in Kevin O'Connell, who is on the verge of delivering his second playoff berth in three seasons. They have also recently discovered a knack for winning close games.
Teams that have discovered their own resilience can never be taken lightly.
That Minnesota has reached this point with journeyman quarterback Sam Darnold is amazing. The would-be bridge signal-caller was thrust into the full-time starting role and has responded extremely well.
However, Darnold's lack of postseason experience prevents the Vikings from claiming our top spot.
1. Green Bay Packers
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There might not be a scarier wild-card team right now than the 9-3 Green Bay Packers. Like the Vikings, they have experience against the top-seeded Lions—a team they just might upset on Thursday night.
The Packers have also won games in a variety of ways this season, including a pair of them without staring quarterback Jordan Love.
Occasional turnover issues aside, the 26-year-old is playing as well as any signal-caller in the NFL right now, and he's been perfectly complemented by an aggressive, physical defense and the hard running of offseason acquisition Josh Jacobs.
The Packers—who rank eighth in scoring and ninth in points allowed—aren't perfect. However, they can run the ball, shred secondaries, stop the run and generate turnovers (11 INTs, 13 forced fumbles).
Unlike the Vikings and Sam Darnold, Love and the Packers have been there and done that in the postseason. The league's youngest team in 2023 strutted into Dallas and steamrolled the Cowboys and then came within a few plays of knocking off the 49ers.
Every member of this team has confidence, and it is led by a very experienced head coach in Matt LaFleur, who has coached in two NFL title games and is close to delivering his fifth playoff berth in six seasons.
If the Lions slip at all, both Minnesota and Green Bay are capable of stealing the NFC North over the final five weeks.
We'll give the Packers a slight edge because they have the better quarterback, more recent postseason experience and, as an outdoor team, are better equipped to battle in any environment in January.
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