Buying or Selling a 2025 Turnaround for NFL's Most Likely Rebuilding Teams
The NFL's last two prime-time games have both featured teams facing disappointing realities. After making the playoffs in 2023, the Dallas Cowboys and Cleveland Browns are in the middle of lost seasons and facing rebuilds in 2025.
The list of teams that have fallen far short of expectations goes on, and while each has different reasons for stumbling, they all have one thing in common: Change is coming.
The good news is that rebuilds don't always have to be drawn-out processes. Last year, for example, the Houston Texans won seven more games than they did the previous season and took home a division title, and the Washington Commanders are currently amid a turnaround that feels almost instantaneous.
Here, you'll find a look at eight teams likely to see new coaches and/or sweeping roster changes in the coming months. We'll buy or sell their chances of a quick turnaround based on factors such as roster construction, team needs, recent results and salary-cap situations.
First, though, let's examine a few teams that didn't make the cut and why.
Bad Teams Not Headed Toward a Fresh Rebuild
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There's a big difference between bad teams and truly disappointing ones. The Carolina Panthers and Tennessee Titans haven't played well this season, but they weren't expected to.
Tennessee has taken a step backward, but that was to be expected with a new regime and a second-year quarterback. Carolina has already picked up one more win than it had a year ago.
Similarly, the Las Vegas Raiders always felt like an unknown in the AFC, and adding Gardner Minshew II didn't settle their quarterback situation. Las Vegas remains in the early stages of its rebuild, along with the Panthers and Titans.
So do the New England Patriots, who are just getting things started with rookie quarterback Drake Maye. He has shown growth and proved the NFL game isn't too big for him. Their 3-8 record aside, the Patriots probably feel pretty good about where they stand.
The Panthers, Titans, Raiders and Patriots all have first-year head coaches. While one of them could be fired—Pierce, who was interim Las Vegas coach in 2023, being the most likely candidate—that still wouldn't constitute a new rebuild.
The Miami Dolphins were a playoff team in 2023 but floundered with Tua Tagovailoa out of the lineup due to concussion. With the team's offense being centered entirely around his skill set, its struggles without him weren't surprising.
Miami is 3-2 in games Tagovailoa has started and finished this season. It has a chance to finish the campaign strong and regroup in the offseason.
The 4-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been rattled by injuries but have remained competitive thanks to quarterback Baker Mayfield and the smart offensive game-planning of coordinator Liam Coen.
Tampa is coming out of its bye healthier, and it still has a chance to push back into the playoff picture.
Technically, so do some of the teams on our proper list, but major adjustments will be needed in the offseason.
Chicago Bears
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One could argue the Chicago Bears' latest rebuild began this offseason when the franchise used the first overall pick on quarterback Caleb Williams.
The USC product becomes the latest quarterback hope for Chicago, and in that sense, this is a new era.
However, the Bears made the ill-advised decision to retain head coach Matt Eberflus this past offseason despite his 10-24 record. He brought in Shane Waldron as the new offensive coordinator, which was another mistake.
Though Chicago surrounded Williams with a strong supporting cast, the rookie and the offense have been out of sync all season. That led to Waldron's firing and the promotion of Thomas Brown to the offensive coordinator spot.
Perhaps Brown can help Chicago right the ship. The Bears do have the league's seventh-ranked scoring defense, and with offensive improvements, they could push past their 4-6 record.
Still, it's hard to envision Eberflus surviving the season. He's mishandled too much to this point, and he continually has his team ill-prepared.
Chicago's 3-18 road record under the 54-year-old hasn't happened by accident.
General manager Ryan Poles could be out too, depending on who Chicago picks to replace Eberflus. Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who might be the hottest coaching candidate next offseason, was believed to want the Bears job this year, according to Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated.
If Johnson is the pick, he may want to be part of a bigger offensive overhaul—one that includes alignment between coach and GM.
"He isn't necessarily waiting for the 'perfect' opportunity—Johnson just wants to know there's alignment and a chance for long-term success," NFL Media's Tom Pelissero wrote.
If Chicago can find a quality coach, though, it could be formidable in 2025. Williams has an exceptionally high ceiling, and the Bears have young offensive weapons in Cole Kmet, D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze. They also have a talented defense and $81.9 million in projected 2025 cap space.
The Bears can use that cap flexibility to reload the offensive line, which has been the roster's biggest weak spot this season.
If Chicago can improve its line, deploy an offense that properly supports Williams and find a competent head coach, it could become a major player in the NFC North within a year.
Verdict: Buy
Cincinnati Bengals
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The Cincinnati Bengals might want to thank the Cowboys and Jets for commanding so much media attention. They have been just as disappointing, largely because quarterback Joe Burrow has been healthy.
In five seasons under head coach Zac Taylor, the Bengals missed the playoffs three times. In the two years Burrow finished healthy and behind center, though, Cincinnati reached the AFC Championship Game.
Well, Burrow is healthy and playing some of the best football of his career, but the Bengals are 4-7 and highly unlikely to make the playoffs. Some questionable offensive game-planning and some consistently bad defense have haunted them all season—they haven't beaten a team with more than three wins on its resume.
Cincinnati needs an injection of talent, and it may have to consider coaching changes. It probably won't part with head coach Zac Taylor, though the team's underperformance would justify it.
"I play football on the field. I don't call plays for us, you know?" star receiver Ja'Marr Chase told reporters after the Bengals' Week 11 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.
Coordinator changes are more likely.
Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has struggled to field a functional defense this season. While he's done a good job of patching players together in the past, it's just not working at the moment. Dan Pitcher has not been an adequate replacement for former offensive coordinator Brian Callahan, who left to take over the Titans.
Significant roster changes could (or should) be on the way too.
Cincinnati is projected to have $64 million in cap space next offseason, but it needs to invest heavily in its defense, finally find a good offensive line combination and work out an extension with Chase.
Retaining standout No. 2 receiver Tee Higgins feels unlikely, given the franchise's history of parting with players such as Jessie Bates III and Joe Mixon and going cheaper at their positions.
The question is whether Cincinnati will make the tough coaching decisions and spend the required money to finally put a top-tier supporting cast around Burrow. The franchise has traditionally favored more budget-friendly options in free agency, though it did sign Orlando Brown Jr. last offseason.
If the Bengals are willing to chase top-tier free agents such as cornerback D.J. Reed, pass-rusher Azeez Ojulari, guard Trey Smith and safety Jevon Holland while finding some way to improve their coaching, they could be contenders again in 2025.
Cincinnati already has the most important piece in place in Burrow.
Verdict: Buy
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Cleveland Browns
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The Browns have been stunningly bad in 2024, which is surprising after seeing them navigate the 2023 season so successfully.
Injuries have been an issue this year, but they were last year too, and Cleveland still made the postseason despite starting five different quarterbacks.
Deshaun Watson is done for the year with a torn Achilles, and Cleveland has seen enough to know he isn't the answer behind center. Unfortunately, his fully guaranteed contract means the team will be better off keeping him on the roster and on the bench instead of cutting him.
The three-time Pro Bowler is set to carry a $72.9 million cap hit in 2025. Even if he's released with a post-June 1 designation, that number would balloon to $118.9 million. That would drop his 2026 cap hit from $72.9 million to $53.8 million, but it isn't feasible.
The Browns are already projected to be $45.1 million over the salary cap next year. They currently have $44.2 million in cap space that can be rolled over, but there isn't a clear path to cutting Watson.
Cleveland needs a full-blown reset, and it needs to dump expensive contracts and underperforming players.
This could lead to parting with good players, such as offensive tackle Jack Conklin and tight end David Njoku.
Cutting Conklin would be hard to swallow because he's been one of Cleveland's few reliable linemen when healthy. But he hasn't played as well since last year's season-ending injury, and he'll turn 31 in August.
The Browns will likely try to trade Conklin first—and they'll likely find takers—but they can save $11.8 million in cap space by releasing him with a post-June 1 designation.
Cleveland will also need to reload its roster with rookie contracts and budget players, and Njoku looms as a quality trade chip.
The roster will be substantially weaker in 2025, and there's no guarantee Kevin Stefanski will be back as head coach. He's delivered two playoff berths and won two Coach of the Year awards in his five seasons at the helm, but this season has been catastrophic.
Plus, there's a non-zero chance franchise owner Jimmy Haslam still wants to make it work with Watson and will replace Stefanski with a coach who is willing to try.
Overall, no franchise is in a worse spot than Cleveland. Even if it falls into a franchise quarterback via the 2025 draft, it will take several years to fully recover from the Watson fiasco.
Buckle up, Browns fans. These next few seasons won't be pretty.
Verdict: Sell
Dallas Cowboys
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No one has forgotten owner Jerry Jones' offseason announcement that Dallas was "all-in" on the 2024 season. The Cowboys should now be all-in on putting this disaster behind them.
Yes, injuries have been part of the problem, and Dak Prescott is out for the year with a hamstring injury. However, Dallas was bad even before the quarterback exited the lineup, for a few reasons.
The defense has taken a major step backward under coordinator Mike Zimmer. The offensive line has been a significant liability, and Dallas has fielded one of the worst rushing attacks we've seen in the NFL in recent years. Throw in the fact that Mike McCarthy is an obvious lame-duck coach, and it's clear a substantial rebuild is in order.
The Cowboys are projected to have just $25.2 million in cap space, and they still need to work out an extension with pass-rusher Micah Parsons. They also have multiple position groups that must be reloaded.
Dallas needs to rebuild its offensive line, its backfield and a defense that lacks dependable players outside of a few key spots. The Cowboys may have to hand onto impending free agents like Zack Martin, DeMarcus Lawrence and Jourdan Lewis while they're at it.
A more aggressive foray into free agency than we saw in 2024 will be necessary.
However, key players such as Prescott, Parsons, CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, Trevon Diggs and Tyler Smith are under contract, which provides a strong foundation.
There's work to be done, but most of Dallas' 2024 issues have been the product of injuries and bad coaching. The Cowboys didn't win 36 games over the previous three seasons because they don't have talent.
It'll help if players like Prescott, Parsons and DaRon Bland can stay healthy and in the lineup next season. However, finding the right head coach will change a lot in Dallas.
Whether that's Johnson, Bill Belichick, Mike Vrabel or someone else, finding a leader who can get more out of a talented core will return the Cowboys to relevance rather quickly.
Whether Dallas can be more than just relevant and actually become a title contender will depend on Jones, who serves as general manager and isn't going to fire himself.
Verdict: Buy
Jacksonville Jaguars
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While the Jacksonville Jaguars didn't make the playoffs in 2023, they did reach the postseason the previous year. They also had an 8-3 record last year before Trevor Lawrence began battling injuries and the season spiraled.
With a healthy Lawrence back behind center, Jacksonville was expected to at least be relevant in the AFC South. It hasn't been, and now the signal-caller is injured again (AC joint). Even when he was healthy, though, the Jags weren't good, and there's a real chance another regime change could be incoming.
There were rumors head coach Doug Pederson and general manager Trent Baalke could be out during this week's bye.
"The Jaguars, mired in a miserable rut after losing four of their last five games, might be looking at another regime change for 2025, and sources say a dramatic move could come as soon as this week, pending the results of Sunday's game against the Lions," NFL Media's Ian Rapoport wrote on Saturday.
While Jacksonville hasn't exactly been a consistently successful franchise, it could attract some quality coaching candidates this offseason. On paper, it has a strong roster and a franchise quarterback in Lawrence.
The Athletic's Dianna Russini reported on the Scoop City podcast (h/t Bleacher Report's Doric Sam) that Belichick "has his eye" on the Jaguars.
If they can find a coach who can get a bit more out of the roster, and they can keep Lawrence on the field, they'll have a chance to improve significantly.
The Jags are in a fairly good spot financially, as they're projected to have $58 million in 2025 cap space. They don't have many key players headed to free agency, so there will be an opportunity to improve areas like the secondary.
Jacksonville ranks 31st in passing yards allowed, 32nd in net yards per pass attempt allowed and 32nd in passing touchdowns allowed.
The Jaguars have looked and played like legitimate contenders when things have gone well under Pederson. As he did before as the Philadelphia Eagles head coach, though, the 56-year-old has struggled to keep his team on track.
Change is needed at the top, but a strong core is in place, and the Jags are only one year removed from a nine-win season. They could be back to that level, or higher, with the right hires next year.
Verdict: Buy
New Orleans Saints
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The New Orleans Saints have disappointed, but there's still time to change the narrative.
Injuries hampered New Orleans during a seven-game losing streak, but a midseason coaching change has the team on a different course.
A 4-7 record is not where the Saints want to be, but they're only two games behind the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South. They still have time to make a push and might not finish far off of last year's 9-8 record.
However, change will be in order, as New Orleans has already fired head coach Dennis Allen. Interim coach Darren Rizzi has provided a spark and may ultimately end up keeping the job permanently.
"If they get to, say, nine wins, the idea of going forward with Darren Rizzi as head coach might have legs," Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer wrote.
Regardless of who the head coach in 2025 is, Saints fans can expect changes. New Orleans is projected to be $77.3 million over the salary cap and has a tough decision to make on quarterback Derek Carr.
The 33-year-old has been good enough at times but certainly not great. New Orleans can save $30 million in 2025 cap space by cutting him with a post-June 1 designation.
A lot will hinge on how the Saints fare down the stretch. If they stumble, Carr will likely be out, possibly along with pricey veterans such as Ryan Ramczyk and Cameron Jordan. A full-on rebuild could take a few years because of their cap situation—and GM Mickey Loomis' habit of kicking contracts down the road.
New Orleans is already projected to have the third-lowest amount of cap space in 2026.
If the Saints finish strong and only see minor changes—notably to the coaching staff, possibly an upgrade at quarterback—they could be in the playoff mix in 2025. The team has been very competitive at times this season, and the franchise hasn't won fewer than seven games since 2005.
Could a few tweaks, a healthier roster and a winnable division put New Orleans right back in the playoffs next season? Absolutely, if that's the route the Saints choose to take.
Verdict: To Be Determined
New York Giants
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The New York Giants officially finally turned the page on the Daniel Jones experiment early this week. He was benched and replaced by Tommy DeVito as the starter.
Jones will undoubtedly be gone in 2025. The Giants can release the 27-year-old with a post-June 1 designation and save $30.5 million in cap space.
The big question is whether New York will stick with head coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen beyond this season. The pair did help orchestrate a 2022 playoff run, but bad quarterback play has clearly held the team back over the past couple of seasons.
Things could obviously change between now and January, but New York may not be barreling toward a regime change.
"I believe Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen are safe right now," ESPN's Adam Schefter told The Pat McAfee Show on Monday.
There will be a quarterback change, though, and New York has other needs to address. It needs to improve a horrific run defense and rebuild an offensive line that carries question marks, especially at right tackle.
Fortunately, the Giants are projected to have $45.4 million in 2025 cap space even before moving on from Jones. They have the cap space needed to address holes and keep good, young foundational pieces such as Malik Nabers, Brian Burns, Andrew Thomas and Tyrone Tracy Jr. under contract.
For as bad as Big Blue has been over the past two years, it could experience a quick turnaround if it can find the right quarterback. Jones was merely average in 2022, and Daboll still delivered a playoff victory.
Presumably, the Giants will look to draft their next quarterback of the future in April. However, prospects like Miami's Cam Ward and Colorado's Shedeur Sanders might not be ready to lead a team immediately, the way C.J. Stroud and Jayden Daniels did for the Texans and Commanders, respectively.
New York will also need to add a veteran bridge QB to provide insurance, whether that's DeVito or a free agent such as Jacoby Brissett or Andy Dalton.
If the Giants' foray into free agency and the draft can deliver competent quarterback play, this team could be back in the playoff mix next season. New York overcame its biggest hurdle when it benched Jones.
Verdict: Buy
New York Jets
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The New York Jets have already fired head coach Robert Saleh and general manager Joe Douglas. There's virtually no chance they'll stick with quarterback Aaron Rodgers in 2025.
The 2023 trade to acquire Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers hasn't worked out. A torn Achilles ended the quarterback's inaugural Jets campaign after only four snaps, but he's struggled, along with the rest of the team, this season.
According to Dianna Russini and Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic, franchise owner and CEO Woody Johnson wanted to bench the 40-year-old after the Week 4 loss to the Denver Broncos.
Rodgers stayed in the lineup, but a week later, Johnson made the sole decision to dump Saleh.
"Johnson was calmed that day, but that set the tone for what happened a week later. On Oct. 8, Johnson made the decision to fire Saleh without consulting his general manager (or anyone else in the organization, for that matter)," Russini and Rosenblatt wrote.
The Jets can cut Rodgers with a post-June 1 designation and save $9.5 million in cap space. The franchise is already projected to have $31.2 million in cap space, though it may require a chunk of that to extend young players like Sauce Gardner, Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson.
The presence of young players like Gardner, Wilson and Will McDonald IV is why New York may still have a bright future. But a quick turnaround isn't happening.
The Jets must now take another swing at finding their long-term answer at quarterback—a challenge that has been ongoing for decades. They also must reload a roster that has 17 unrestricted 2025 free agents—one that may also dump Rodgers' cohorts, Allen Lazard and Davante Adams, for cap purposes.
On top of everything, any quick turnaround would require finding the right head coach and general manager. Someone will take those jobs because the NFL only has 32 franchises. However, it's extremely hard to envision any top candidates gravitating toward New York with a meddling owner like Johnson in charge.
"That's kind of what it's been there at the Jets—barely won over 30 percent in the last 10 years. The owner being the owner, just ready, fire, aim," Bill Belichick said during an appearance on the October 6 ManningCast broadcast of the game between the Jets and Buffalo Bills.
A great coach can spark rapid ascension, but if the Jets stumble into their version of DeMeco Ryans or Dan Quinn, they'll probably do so entirely by luck.
Verdict: Sell
*Cap and contract information via Spotrac.
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