NHL Panic Meter: Which Teams Should Be Worried Already?
The NHL season is not even 10 percent over. Most teams have played somewhere between six and nine games. Any team that looks good or bad over that type of stretch in February is simply deemed to be on a hot or cold streak. Right now, it's far too early to make any sweeping declarations about any team or player.
Still, first impressions matter. While the fate of each team is hardly decided, enough games have been played that the teams that are down in the standings or generally seem off evoke questions. Is it just a few games that went the wrong way in a long season, or are these the early signs of devastating problems that will sink the season?
Let's take a look at five NHL teams with lackluster starts to the season and assess how much panic those teams should feel.
Edmonton Oilers
1 of 5
The Edmonton Oilers, fresh off a Stanley Cup Final appearance, entered the season as the clear favorite to win the Stanley Cup. Just one regulation win and the fourth-worst record in the NHL by points percentage does not align with expectations.
Some of the worries are the same as ever in Edmonton. The defensemen behind Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm are playing suspect hockey, with $9M defenseman Darnell Nurse playing poorly in particular. Both goaltenders are allowing soft goals.
Yet the biggest problem has been that the Oilers aren't scoring goals. They rank 31st in the NHL by goals-per-60 minutes ahead of only the San Jose Sharks.
Raise your hand if you actually believe that a team with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will continue to average less than two goals per game.
Despite the Oilers generating plenty of offense—they are eighth in expected goals for—they have the league's worst shooting percentage. McDavid and Draisaitl are each on pace for 93-point seasons. Zach Hyman may have overachieved last season, but zero goals through seven games is a fluke. Viktor Arvidsson and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are also yet to score.
Looking toward the playoffs, it's fair to wonder if this Edmonton group will be able to keep enough pucks out of the net. That's a problem to re-assess at the trade deadline.
But Edmonton's poor record out of the gate is indicative of little except a random run of high-end offensive players having some bad luck. The low-scoring numbers would be unsustainable for almost any team, let alone a team with generational firepower. The Oilers will start scoring in bunches soon enough, and they'll be comfortably in playoff position soon, too.
Panic Level: Minimal
Pittsburgh Penguins
2 of 5
On the surface, things don't look so bad in Pittsburgh. A 3-4-1 record puts them only a point or two behind some very good teams. One or two bounces in their favor and maybe they have a winning record.
Contextualizing the start to their season raises many alarm bells, however. Their two wins were against bad teams—Columbus and Detroit—and a shootout squeaker against Buffalo. They have looked completely out of their depth against better teams.
Goaltending remains a huge question mark. Tristan Jarry has practically forgotten how to play the position. Alex Nedeljkovic and touted prospect Joel Blomqvist could do a patchwork job the rest of the way if needed, but that's not good enough for a team as flawed as this one.
Actually, "patchwork" sums up Pittsburgh's total identity at the moment. The Penguins' offseason additions were found in the junk drawer and, well, you get what you pay for. Cody Glass and Jesse Puljujärvi might be providing the Penguins decent value relative to their costs, but extreme couponing isn't going to pay off a mortgage. This team has a major talent deficiency down the lineup.
But the biggest concern is that the Penguins look plain sloppy. For years, the magic in Pittsburgh was that, even if the team lacked skill, the coaching staff guided the players to play intelligent, cohesive hockey. That is no longer the case. Breakdowns and miscommunications are now common in Pittsburgh.
Maybe Mike Sullivan has nothing left to teach this team in his 10th season, but how likely is it that a different coach turn straw into gold? The trajectory doesn't look great in Pittsburgh—both this season and beyond.
Panic Level: Contention Window Highly Endangered
Nashville Predators
3 of 5
Nashville was en vogue over the summer.
Last season the Predators were a solid team that lacked difference-makers at the top of the lineup. During the offseason, they attempted to address that issue with the monumental additions of forwards Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault plus defenseman Brady Skjei. GM Barry Trotz pegged this as the season to break free from the NHL's middle class.
The Preds have come out the gate with a sputter. A 1-5-0 record through six games has Nashville media citing statistics that contextualize this start as bleak for their playoff hopes. The Athletic's model, which gave the Predators a 75 percent chance to make the playoffs, now pegs them at 40 percent.
There are other dynamics here that further cause worry. Nashville may have lacked top players last season, but it controlled the game. Now the Predators are having the game taken to them. In particular, they are playing dreadful defensive hockey. Despite Juuse Saros playing to his usual standard, the Predators are conceding roughly four goals per game.
And for all of the offseason hype, the imported difference-makers are not, well, difference-making.
Stamkos has just one point—a power-play goal—through six games. He is generating quality chances, but Stamkos has scored just once on his 22 shots on goal. I'd expect him to triple that conversion rate for the rest of the season. On the other hand, most of his shot generation is coming on the power play. The 34-year-old is more of an opportunist than play-driver at this stage of his career. Can he be the Main Guy in Nashville without a Kucherov or Point on his line?
Skjei, too, has struggled in his first month in Nashville. He has just two points in six games but, more importantly, is bleeding scoring chances against.
Here is the upside for Nashville. First, it's early. Their season has been dented but not totaled. It's also understandable if head coach Andrew Brunette needs time to find balance and cohesion for a very different type of roster from last season. Finally, the Preds will have a ton of cap space and assets to use at the trade deadline.
Panic Level: Not panicking, but the hype is over
Colorado Avalanche
4 of 5
Any reasonable forecast saw the Avalanche navigating this season with some hurdles to overcome. Two regulation wins through six games and the 24th-worst record by points percentage is pushing the boundaries, though.
It's not so much the record that is the problem. They're staying with the pack, and a season that ends out of the playoff picture would be quite surprising. They're getting plenty of offense from the usual suspects in Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Mikko Rantanen. No matter what happens around them, that should be enough to carry them to April.
The anxiety in Colorado at the moment is less about the team's record and more that the team seems to be validating the preseason worries about its makeup. Already existing salary-cap problems widened by the indefinite absence of Valeri Nichushkin have handcuffed management's ability to build out the depth chart with anything beyond fringe pickups and underqualified minor leaguers. If the Avs get the play-driving Nichushkin back this season, then that will go a long way toward fixing their forward problems.
The greatest alarm bells ring in between the goalposts. Alexandar Georgiev is a true hot-or-not goaltender. When he's on his game, he's borderline All-Star caliber. When he's not mentally sharp, his game falls apart. The Avs experienced the more undesirable form during the playoffs last season, and he's been Swiss cheese to start the year, conceding 20 goals in five starts. Backup goaltender Justus Annunen has just 17 career NHL starts and does not have the steady hand the Avs need to quell this storm. They've added Kaapo Kähkönen to stop the bleeding short-term.
The Avalanche are a playoff team, and even with a thin depth chart, they are a threat to contend for the Stanley Cup. That will all be irrelevant if goaltending continues to undermine everything else. Georgiev needs a true tandem partner to push him and, if not, supplant him.
Panic Level: Shop for Goalies
Detroit Red Wings
5 of 5
The Yzerplan is losing its aura. Built-in trust from the fanbase and ownership earned their GM some time, even as the team plateaued from the embers of a rebuild to a below-average team. Generously, eight straight years of missing the playoffs are being categorized as a slow cook rather than what it's increasingly looking like—a failure.
The Red Wings have opened the season with a 3-3-0 record, which is not catastrophic in itself. They've lost to some great teams in the Rangers and Maple Leafs and have collected wins against the struggling Predators and average Islanders.
The Red Wings look unremarkable. That's a problem, because it reflects exactly the sentiment that's been around the team for years now. Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider are great players, but they do not compare to the league's truly elite foundations. That would be fine if the team was strong from top-to-bottom, but the Wings are not. The free-agent splurges for Andrew Copp, JT Compher, and Ben Chiarot have all underachieved their price points.
The Red Wings have three goaltenders on the roster, with none of them providing any sort of certainty. Ville Husso was put on waivers a few days ago (no takers) just to send a message.
Meanwhile, after Seider and Raymond, the Red Wings have received little fruit from their rebuilding labors. Not a single other draft pick since Steve Yzerman took over in 2019 has established himself as a lineup regular yet. Some may yet still do so, but it's getting very late in Detroit. There's only so long that the organization can keep promising a better tomorrow.
No matter how this season goes, the Red Wings still have long-term upside. But a mediocre beginning to this season does nothing to assuage fears that the rebuild has hit a wall despite Yzerman's years of careful churning mixed in with veteran additions. The worry in Detroit should not be that the team is underachieving—the worry should be that the Red Wings are achieving as they should be. Maybe the product just is not good enough.
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