Ranking Dodgers' Walker Buehler's Top 10 Landing Spots Ahead of MLB Free Agency
Following Walker Buehler's first start of the 2024 postseason for the Los Angeles Dodgers, it looked like he would have difficulty finding a multi-year deal in free agency. After posting a 5.38 ERA in 16 starts during the regular season, he was lit up for six earned runs in one inning in Game 3 of the NLDS against the San Diego Padres. He pitched five innings without recording so much as one strikeout.
What a drastically different story in his next three appearances, though, going a combined 10 scoreless innings with 13 strikeouts, including the World Series-clinching save in Game 5.
Looks like he still has some vintage stuff in that twice surgically repaired elbow.
Despite both that strong finish and the impressive run he had with the Dodgers before this season, it's kind of unlikely Buehler will be re-signing with them.
They already have Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone, Landon Knack and Bobby Miller as returnees who made at least a dozen starts this season. There's also the presumed return of both Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin from an entire 2024 season spent on the IL, possibly Clayton Kershaw on a $10M player option and, oh yeah, Shohei Ohtani potentially returning to the mound as a starter.
This begs the question: Where will this multiple-time Cy Young vote recipient land? And what sort of contract could he get?
We'll touch on his alleged and more realistic market values before ranking the 10 most likely candidates to sign this former ace.
What Will Buehler Be Worth in Free Agency?
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Buehler is hitting free agency fresh off an incredible World Series, but overall a rough walk-year campaign.
After missing nearly 23 months of action because of Tommy John surgery, he didn't make his 2024 debut until May. He sputtered through eight starts, spent nearly two more months on the IL with a hip injury, and then struggled for another eight starts.
After that dud of a season, Spotrac values Buehler's market value at a one-year, $3.9M deal, using Colin Rea, JT Brubaker, Tyler Beede, and Spencer Turnbull as statistically comparable players to arrive at that number.
But come on now.
How can you use career replacement-level players like Brubaker and Beede when Luis Severino is so very clearly the applicable comp here?
Before the injury, Buehler was a certified ace. From 2018-21, he had a 2.82 ERA and averaged 9.9 K/9. Per FanGraphs, he was the seventh-most valuable pitcher in the majors for those four years, twice (2019 and 2021) receiving Cy Young votes.
Compare that to Severino, who was awesome in 2017 and 2018 (Cy Young votes in both years) and respectable when available from 2019-22 before a disastrous 2023 season.
Both were basically identical leading up to their final season before free agency and then in their contract years.
- Severino pre-contract year: 638.0 IP, 3.39 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 13.4 bWAR
- Buehler pre-contract year: 638.1 IP, 3.02 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 13.5 bWAR
- Severino's contract year: 89.1 IP, 6.65 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, negative-1.5 bWAR
- Buehler's contract year: 75.1 IP, 5.38 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, negative-1.3 bWAR
So, what did Severino get in free agency?
A one-year, $13M deal with the New York Mets—which became $15M because he made enough starts to trigger all three of his performance-based incentives.
While he wasn't quite the flame-throwing strikeout machine he used to be, what a great pickup Severino turned out to be with a sub-4.00 ERA during the regular season before back-to-back quality starts in his first two postseason appearances.
Not only is Severino the logical comp for Buehler, but he was so productive on his "prove you still got it" one-year deal that he may have even driven up the price tag for Buehler's services.
All that said, every single team in the majors reasonably could afford to sign Buehler.
Maybe he ends up getting something with a player option for a second season—goodness knows the San Francisco Giants have loved putting together those types of contracts in recent years—but he's probably looking at a one-year deal with a total value around 10 percent of what Corbin Burnes is going to sign for.
Now, let's talk candidates to sign him.
Honorable Mentions
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Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox definitely do need some pitching help, however, they already have Lucas Giolito holding down a "here's hoping he can get back to pitching like he did before the injury" spot in their rotation.
Chicago Cubs
Had the Cubs actually traded away Jameson Taillon at the July 30 deadline, this would be a way better fit. As is, they still have Taillon, as well as Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele and Javier Assad, plus a bunch of viable younger options in Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown and Cade Horton. They're losing Kyle Hendricks, but they don't need to replace him.
Kansas City Royals
If Michael Wacha declines his $16M player option for next season, perhaps the Royals pivot and offer that money to Buehler. Or maybe not, because their rotation is already in good shape with Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans and Brady Singer all returning for at least one more year. They should focus any offseason spending on getting Bobby Witt Jr. some support in the lineup.
Philadelphia Phillies
The fifth spot in this rotation is a sizable question mark. However, with Zack Wheeler's salary nearly doubling from $23.5M to $42M, the Phillies' minimal budget room figures to be spent primarily on the bullpen, with both Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez headed for free agency.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Redbirds will probably decline their club options on both Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson and could use at least one more starting pitcher. But if they're adding an eight-figure free agent this winter, it will likely be someone who can replace Paul Goldschmidt at first base instead of another reclamation project for the rotation.
Texas Rangers
As with the Royals, a player option decision could determine the interest level here. In Texas' case, it's Nathan Eovaldi at $20M. Even if he turns it down, though, they still have Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray, Tyler Mahle, Dane Dunning, Cody Bradford and what might be the 2025 AL Rookie of the Year frontrunner in Kumar Rocker. They're also coming off a season that was derailed by pitching injuries and figure to be reluctant to take on another injury risk.
10-9: Pittsburgh Pirates and Cleveland Guardians
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10. Pittsburgh Pirates (76-86)
Current Projected Rotation: Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, Bailey Falter, Luis Ortiz
[The Pirates also have a $15M club option (no buyout) for Marco Gonzales that they are 110 percent going to decline.]
In recent years, the Pirates have become big fans of the 'semi-noteworthy one-year contract' approach in free agency, acquiring Jose Quintana, Rich Hill, Carlos Santana, Martín Pérez, and Aroldis Chapman over the past three winters.
Perhaps they'll be willing to go north of $11M on a single free agent for what would be just the fourth time in franchise history.
It really hinges on how comfortable they are with their top prospects as options for next season.
Bubba Chandler and Tom Harrington both spent the final two months of the year at Triple-A Indianapolis and looked pretty good. (Braxton Ashcraft also made it to Triple-A but was injured for most of the second half.) Any of the three could start in 2025. But maybe they bring in Buehler on a one-year deal if they're feeling committed to keeping that entire trio in the minors for one more season.
9. Cleveland Guardians (92-69)
Current Projected Rotation: Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Ben Lively, Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, Joey Cantillo
Roster-wise, Cleveland makes a lot of sense as a landing spot for Buehler.
With Shane Bieber out of the picture and both Logan Allen and Triston McKenzie having rough 2024 seasons, this rotation gets problematic in a hurry beyond Tanner Bibee—with basically nothing down on the farm ready to contribute any time soon, either.
However, the thought of Cleveland investing $10M or more in a free-agent pitcher is just about laughable at this point.
The last time they did so was in December 2008, when they gave Kerry Wood a two-year, $20M contract to be their closer—and that was a disaster, with a 4.80 ERA and a negative-0.2 bWAR.
8-7: Milwaukee Brewers and Baltimore Orioles
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8. Milwaukee Brewers (93-69)
Current Projected Rotation: Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Tobias Myers, Aaron Civale, Colin Rea
After spending most of this season with the starting rotation as a big question mark, the Brewers could reasonably have a top-five rotation in 2025 if they added Buehler while also getting Brandon Woodruff back in the mix.
And let's just say they should have the money to make it happen, with Willy Adames ($12.25M salary in 2024) all but guaranteed to be gone, Rhys Hoskins ($12M salary in 2024) maybe(?) going to opt out and Devin Williams ($7M salary in 2024) a strong candidate for the trade block.
If none of those players return—and assuming the mutual options with Frankie Montas and Wade Miley both get axed—they're looking at one player (Christian Yelich) making north of $8M in 2025.
Of course, if Adames and Hoskins are leaving town, replacing those bats will be more important than adding a starter they don't particularly need.
7. Baltimore Orioles (91-71)
Current Projected Rotation: Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Albert Suárez, Cade Povich
If the O's re-sign Corbin Burnes, then never mind this ranking.
But what if they let Burnes go and instead took the Royals' route last offseason, locking up their superstar shortstop on a $300M deal while taking a couple of $15-ish million salary flyers on starting pitchers?
Maybe they take more of an AL West approach to that end by getting Yusei Kikuchi from Houston and Andrew Heaney from Texas—or maybe they get a little more splashy with a Max Scherzer signing. But Buehler could definitely be a candidate for Birdland in that scenario.
For what it's worth, he did go seven shutout innings with 11 strikeouts in his lone career appearance at Camden Yards. However, that was five years ago when A) he was an ace and B) the O's were a dumpster fire.
6-5: San Francisco Giants and Atlanta Braves
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6. San Francisco Giants (80-82)
Current Projected Rotation: Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks, Hayden Birdsong
Both Blake Snell and Robbie Ray have substantial player options that will significantly impact San Francisco's offseason plans. In all likelihood, though, Snell will become a free agent and Ray will be back, declining his opt-out and returning for two years at $50M.
Do the Giants put a lot of effort into trying to re-sign Snell, though?
And if they fail, will they bother looking elsewhere for a starter when Keaton Winn, Mason Black and Carson Whisenhunt are all candidates beyond the five listed above?
The Giants are a strong candidate to sign Buehler mainly because they love striking short-term deals with player options. In the past few years, they have done so with Carlos Rodón, Michael Conforto, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, Mitch Haniger, Matt Chapman, and Blake Snell.
If anyone is going to draw up a somewhat convoluted contract with incentives and options, it's probably the G-Men.
5. Atlanta Braves (89-73)
Current Projected Rotation: Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver, Grant Holmes, Spencer Strider (eventually)
After getting Chris Sale to turn back into the ace he was six years ago while also somehow turning Reynaldo López into an All-Star, perhaps Atlanta will be looking to capture that lightning in a bottle once again in the form of Buehler.
Or perhaps given the injury history of the pitchers they already have on the roster for 2025, they might be looking to play it safe with a less injury-prone innings eater or two.
What we do know is that with both Charlie Morton and Max Fried slated for free agency and Spencer Strider possibly out for the first half of next season following his UCL surgery in April, Atlanta will be in the market to acquire at least one starting pitcher this offseason. (And the occasional Buuuuueh-lerrrrrrr chant amid the tomahawk chops in Atlanta would be fun.)
4. Washington Nationals
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2024 Record: 71-91
Current Projected Rotation: Mackenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, DJ Herz, Cade Cavalli?
Do the Nationals view themselves as a team ready to make a postseason push in 2024 after five consecutive years with a sub-.440 winning percentage?
If so, adding a top-half-of-the-rotation type of starter is both a must and a move they can finally feel comfortable making now that Patrick Corbin's contract (and 33-70 record with a 5.62 ERA over the past five seasons) is no longer weighing them down.
And they've been no stranger to the ol' "minimal risk reclamation project" signing in recent years.
They took a $10M flyer on Kyle Schwarber after his disaster of a 2020 season, spent $5M each on Jeimer Candelario and Joey Gallo when they hit the open market and invested $13M into letting Trevor Williams try to reestablish himself as a starter. And three of those four moves worked out pretty well.
This could be the point where they get a little more aggressive, though, in hopes of adding a marquee arm to what has been, per FanGraphs, easily the worst starting rotation dating back to 2020.
Washington might offer Buehler a one-year, $20M deal before reassessing its long-term rotation plans next offseason when it hopes to have both Josiah Gray and Cade Cavalli back in the mix.
3. Cincinnati Reds
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2024 Record: 77-85
Current Projected Rotation: Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Graham Ashcraft, Rhett Lowder
Cincinnati made a surprising number of big swings last offseason, committing more than $100M to free agents Jeimer Candelario, Frankie Montas, Nick Martinez and Emilio Pagan.
Unfortunately, only Martinez panned out in the slightest, and he will probably decline his player option to return in 2025 because of how well he pitched for them.
It didn't help matters that Matt McLain (shoulder) missed the entire season, while top prospects Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte combined to hit barely .200 in 95 disappointing games. But if those three infielders are available and productive alongside Elly De La Cruz in 2025, the Reds reasonably could be one solid starting pitcher away from really turning a corner.
Given how well 2023 first-round pick Rhett Lowder pitched after making his MLB debut on August 30 (30.2 IP, 1.17 ERA), maybe the Reds feel they've already done all they need to do with their rotation.
If and when Martinez walks, though, they ought to be in the market for another 1+1 type of "total possible cost of around $35M" contract that they gave to each of Montas and Martinez last winter.
The real question is whether Buehler would want to make his home starts in 2025 at Great American Ball Park.
He has historically done a fine job keeping home runs to a minimum, but he struggled in that department this season. And save for Colorado, Cincinnati is just about the last place you want to go when correcting long-ball issues.
Maybe that concern would be offset by the allure of going back close to home, though. Buehler was born and raised in Lexington, Kentucky, about a 90-minute drive from Cincinnati.
2. New York Mets
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2024 Record: 89-73
Current Projected Rotation: Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Paul Blackburn?, Brandon Sproat??
With the Mets, it's not a question of whether they need to add starting pitching this winter. They most certainly do.
Both Luis Severino and Jose Quintana will be free agents, and if Sean Manaea wasn't already a lock to decline his $13.5M player option for next season, his gem in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Phillies probably sealed that fate.
In addition to losing those three veterans who each logged more than 170 innings during the regular season, rookie Christian Scott announced a few weeks ago that he needs Tommy John surgery and will miss all of next season.
Hopefully, they'll get a healthy year out of Kodai Senga after he missed basically all of 2024.
But beyond that?
David Peterson as a No. 2 starter?
And Paul Blackburn (career 4.85 ERA) and Tylor Megill (career 4.56 ERA) as regulars in the middle of the rotation?
Yikes.
The question with the Mets is whether Buehler would be enough of a splashy, confidence-inducing acquisition for them even to go that route.
When they signed Severino and Manaea (and J.D. Martinez and Harrison Bader) last offseason, those were half-measures by a team that wasn't supposed to contend in 2024 while two of its three highest-paid players (Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer) played for other teams—taking flyers on pitchers who struggled in 2023, but who could get the Mets through the 2024 campaign without having to turn to pitching prospects before they were ready.
Reinvesting big-time in pitching this offseason was always the Mets' plan, pretty much from the moment they traded away those two three-time Cy Young winners.
Why couldn't Buehler be a part of that plan, though?
He wouldn't be their main acquisition. If they're unable to land Juan Soto, you can just about take it to the bank they'll get (at least) one of Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried, or Jack Flaherty instead. But they could sign a co-ace for Senga while also bringing in Buehler to become either the No. 3 or No. 4 option in 2025.
1. Detroit Tigers
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2024 Record: 86-76
Current Projected Rotation: Tarik Skubal, Reese Olson, Casey Mize, Keider Montero, Kenta Maeda, Jackson Jobe, Ty Madden
"Tarik Skubal and a Bullpen, Frugal" was Detroit's approach after trading away Jack Flaherty at the end of July and subsequently needing to survive a month with both Reese Olson and Casey Mize on the IL.
But rolling with openers and bullpen games left and right somehow worked, and they rode that heater for two months.
It's not a sustainable full-season plan, though. While the Tigers do have a bunch of No. 3 and No. 4 caliber starters to use behind Skubal for 2025 and beyond, they simply have to add at least one more starter with No. 2 potential.
In 2022, the Tigers signed a top-of-the-rotation arm in Eduardo Rodriguez, but they made the mistake of letting him opt out of that deal after two seasons. (Given the year he just had with Arizona, maybe they lucked out there.)
They also signed Michael Pineda and Michael Lorenzen that winter, along with Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda last offseason. Each of them was a "maybe he can get back to what he used to be" signing, similar to what a move for Buehler would be.
It also could be a selling point to Buehler that Detroit was able to immediately re-unleash Skubal as a star after he missed more than 11 months (flexor tendon surgery) between the 2022 and 2023 campaigns, get Mize back to pitching at a respectable level this year after he missed almost all of 2022 and all of 2023 following Tommy John surgery, and turn Flaherty back into a star over the first few months of this season.
We shall see. But a rotation of Skubal, Buehler, Mize, Olson and Jackson Jobe could make Detroit much more than just a two-month flash in the pan.
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