Yankees Can't Let Historic Aaron Judge-Juan Soto Duo Be a 1-Year Wonder

The day will come when one New York Yankees fan can turn to another and say: "Remember when we had Juan Soto and Aaron Judge? Those were the days."

How soon that day will come is up to the team.

As time winds down on Soto's final season before free agency, the pressure on the Yankees to keep him in the Bronx beyond 2024 is only growing stronger. Or louder, as exemplified by the "Please stay, Soto!" chants coming from Yankee Stadium's Bleacher Creatures as he roamed right field on Sunday.

Did Judge, who was stationed not far from Soto in center field, hear the chants? You bet he did.

"The fans are excited, they've got every right to be," the once-and-potentially-future American League MVP said. "He's an incredible player, he's done a lot for us this year, and I think they definitely want to see a lot more of that to come."

As for Soto, he basically directed all inquiries to Yankees general manager Brian Cashman: "I don't know. They have to talk to Cashman."

The Yankees technically have more pressing matters in the meantime. Largely because of the 25-year-old Soto and the 32-year-old Judge, they lead the American League at 78-55. FanGraphs puts their chances of winning their first World Series since 2009 at 15.9 percent.

Yet it's hardly a background story that Soto is entering what could be his last regular-season month with the Yankees. Nor is it any secret how much it could take to sway him and his agent, Scott Boras. According to ESPN's Jeff Passan, "the floor" is $500 million.

It's not an unreasonable price. And least of all for the Yankees, who must think of it as the cost to retain not just an individual but also a duo.

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Only Once Before Has There Been a Duo Like Soto-Judge

To watch Soto and Judge in 2024 must be like watching Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig do their thing for the Yankees a century ago.

For starters, just try to keep your jaw from hitting the floor upon looking at these stats:

• Aaron Judge: 131 G, 586 PA, 104 R, 51 HR, 122 RBI, .333 AVG, .465 OBP, .732 SLG
• Juan Soto: 129 G, 592 PA, 108 R, 37 HR, 95 RBI, .294 AVG, .424 OBP, .595 SLG

Judge is on pace for 62 long balls, which would tie his own AL record from his MVP-winning season in 2022. If Soto also achieves his projected total of 45, the two will have combined for 107 homers.

That would tie for the third-best home run count ever by teammates, trailing only Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle from 1961 (115) and Barry Bonds and Rich Aurilia from 2001 (110) and matching Ruth and Gehrig (107) from 1927.

In the meantime, Soto and Judge are the second teammate duo in history to each have at least 180 OPS+ and 35 home runs.

The other? Ruth and Gehrig, naturally.

There's also how Judge (currently at 9.6) and Soto (7.7) are on pace for a combined 21.0 fWAR. Only one other teammate duo has gone that high.

Again, it's Ruth and Gehrig.

These numbers don't even capture how committed Soto and Judge are to the duo bit. They've homered in the same game 12 times—including back-to-back six times—thus ensuring it's The Soto and Judge Show and not The Soto Show or The Judge Show.

The impact for the Yankees isn't merely in the win column. Attendance at Yankee Stadium is up, and the fact that Soto and Judge have the two top-selling jerseys among American League players suggests they're moving merchandise.

But as much as this feels like it should only be the beginning of a lasting and eminently fruitful partnership like Ruth and Gehrig, there's one good reason to worry it won't be.

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The Threat Is Coming from Inside the City

It's easy to speculate about where free agency could take Soto. There's a lot of money in Los Angeles, and Passan otherwise pointed to the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs as teams that "could likely afford" the slugger.

Even this far out, though, this feels like a preemptive courtesy nod to the also-rans of the sweepstakes. The safe assumption is still that if the Yankees don't sign Soto, the Mets will.

Like the big bad who's only hinted at in the early pages (e.g., that one, that one or especially that one) of an epic saga, the Mets are merely a background character for now. But even if they can't yet launch an all-out recruiting effort on Soto, the time for subtlety is over.

"When it comes to the outfielder from across our borough," Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor told Passan, "he's having a fantastic year and I hope he goes out there and breaks every record out there when it comes to getting paid. If it's with us, it'll be fantastic. He'll help us a lot."

Spoken like a guy who knows as well as anyone that Mets owner Steve Cohen is worth more than MLB's next three richest owners combined and that his financial muscles have been thoroughly flexed as the club's payroll has more than doubled from 2019 to 2024.

Despite that, the Mets' long-term financial outlook isn't so messy. Even counting options, they have $551 million worth of salaries on their books between 2025 and 2030. Factoring in the $9 million the Miami Marlins owe for Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees are responsible for $688 million in salaries for that same span.

The Mets are otherwise seen by MLB.com as having a better farm system than the Yankees, who were recently called the "Red Flag organization" by one scout because of the volatility of their top prospects.

And as much as Soto clearly loves Yankee Stadium, he's better historically at Citi Field. His 1.175 OPS there is his best at any stadium where he's had at least 100 plate appearances.

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There Will Be No Excuses if Soto Leaves the Yankees

The Yankees will nonetheless have at least one advantage in the Soto sweepstakes. To merely call it "familiarity" would be insufficient. It's more like genuine comfort, as they love having him and the feeling is very much mutual.

"This is more than what I expected," Soto told Bob Nightengale of USA Today about his Yankees experience in June. "It's been unbelievable so far."

The Yankees' simplest way to ensure all this goodwill spills over into 2025 and beyond is to give Soto and Boras what they want. If it's $500 million, fine; if it's $600 million, still fine.

As a reminder, Forbes values the Yankees at $7.55 billion and estimates their revenues at $679 million.

It'll be more like a choice if Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner decides that the bidding for Soto is getting too rich. Which isn't impossible to imagine, given his occasional knee-jerk instincts to cry poor. Even as recently as May, he was saying the club's $300 million payroll was "not sustainable."

Yet even in his likely price range, Soto is a low-risk bet for the long haul. He'll only turn 26 on October 25, and he's not some uber-athletic type doomed to suffer from a harsh aging curve. It's all about the bat, and the bat is responsible for all-time greatness at his age.

Besides, there may be scenarios where the Yankees can make additional space.

One possibility involves ace righty Gerrit Cole. After 2024, he can opt out of the four years and $144 million left on his deal, in which case the Yankees could exercise their own option and retain him on a new five-year, $180 million pact.

Or, they could call Cole's bluff on truly believing that a Jacob deGrom-sized contract would be out there for him despite his declining velocity and the elbow injury that cost him the first half of this season.

In that case, the Yankees might have a shot at re-signing the 33-year-old at a lower rate. They could also seek out younger, cheaper alternatives. For example, the Spencer Jones for Garrett Crochet trade, which has been hinted at, could be feasible.

Whatever the case, it will be a missed opportunity if Soto goes one and done in the Bronx. It'll sting even if he rides out of town as a World Series champion, and that much more so if the Yankees have to wave goodbye after a 15th straight season without a title.

All good things must come to an end, but something like Soto and Judge together in pinstripes is too good to end so soon.

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Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.