Top 5 College Football Head Coaches on the Hot Seat in 2024
Thankfully, the 2024 college football season starts this weekend. And with that, it's time to look at the hot seats of head coaches across the country.
The coaching carousel is constantly in motion, and this offseason has been one like none other. Following Nick Saban's shocking announcement to retire after 28 seasons in the sport, we saw a wave of new hires made across the country.
Some changes prior to Saban's retirement were expected. In fact, six out of the 10 hot-seat coaches on this list were fired. But as the 2024 season kicks off, there are plenty of head coaches who will be trying to keep their jobs throughout the year.
Let's take a look at which head coaches are on the hot seat for 2024 and some whose seats are getting warmer.
Coaches Whose Seats Are Getting Warmer
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Shane Beamer, South Carolina
The Shane Beamer era got off to a positive start in 2021 and 2022, with two straight bowl appearances. The 8-5 finish in 2022 marked the best mark for South Carolina since 2017. But the Gamecocks finished 5-7 last season, including a 3-5 mark in conference play. Another losing season wouldn't bode well for his future, even with that promising start.
Pat Narduzzi, Pitt
Yes, Pat Narduzzi's 65-50 record over nine seasons is impressive, and the Panthers won the ACC in 2021. But as B/R's David Kenyon pointed out in January, Pitt would have just one College Football Playoff appearance in his nine years under the upcoming 12-team format. If he can earn a bowl appearance following last year's 3-9 season, his seat should cool down. But another losing campaign might make his overall tenure mediocre at best, prompting a change.
Tony Elliott, Virginia
It hasn't been easy at Virginia for Tony Elliott, who took over for Bronco Mendenhall. But through two seasons, UVA has gone just 6-16 under Elliott, including a 3-12 mark in the ACC. The last Cavaliers coach to have three straight losing seasons at UVA was Mike London, who was fired at the end of the 2015 season. Sending the team to a bowl game this season would be a great way to cool Elliott's seat down.
Clark Lea, Vanderbilt
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When Clark Lea was hired as Vanderbilt head coach in 2020, the hopes were that a Commodore alumnus could turn things around in Nashville. Unfortunately, the team has gone 9-27 so far, including winless records in the SEC in 2021 and 2023.
As Lea enters his fifth season in charge, the Commodores may struggle even more as they compete in a now division-less SEC. They return 72 percent of their returning production from last season on defense, good for 23rd nationally. Vandy's leading tackler, linebacker Langston Patterson returns, as does safety CJ Taylor.
But the offense will be without quarterback AJ Swann, as well as leading receivers Will Sheppard and London Humphreys from last season. New Mexico State transfer Diego Pavia and Utah transfer Nate Johnson are expected to compete for the starting role at QB. Vandy also gets back leading rusher Sedrick Alexander from last season.
So how will Vanderbilt do in an expanded SEC featuring the likes of Texas and Oklahoma? Its schedule for 2024 looks daunting. The out-of-conference slate features Virginia Tech, Alcorn State, Georgia State and Ball State—all but one of those teams in Ball State went above .500 last season.
In SEC play, Vandy will go on the road to face No. 11 Missouri, Kentucky, Auburn and No. 13 LSU. Its home games will be against No. 5 Alabama, No. 4 Texas, South Carolina and No. 15 Tennessee, and it will surely be the underdog in all of those.
Lea finishing around .500 with a tough schedule might be enough to keep him around for another year. But with four straight losing seasons already, it wouldn't be surprising if the school made a change.
Justin Wilcox, California
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Justin Wilcox was on this list last year, having notched just two winning seasons in six years with the California Golden Bears. And it looked like he was coaching his final season with the team early in the season.
Despite going 3-6 through early November, though, the Bears won their last three games of the season, over Washington State, Stanford and a 33-7 road win over rival UCLA to reach a bowl game. Cal lost 34-14 to Texas Tech in the Independence Bowl, but the late-season rally was enough to keep the 47-year-old for another season.
In 2024, Cal will be going from the Pac-12 to the ACC, in what looks like it'll be a big challenge for Wilcox, who enters his eighth season with a 36-43 record. Luckily, the Bears return several key players from last season, which could help the coach keep building on momentum from last year's late-season push.
Cal returns 71 percent of its returning production on offense, including star running back Jaydn Ott, who led the Pac-12 in rushing last season with 1,315 yards and 12 touchdowns. He averaged 109.58 yards per game, too.
Starting quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who threw for 1,708 yards and 14 touchdowns with 10 interceptions last season, also returns along with receiver Trond Grizzell. The Bears return nine starters from a defense last season that finished 37th in run defense.
As for the Bears' 2024 schedule, it looks particularly tough for a school traveling multiple times across the country to play its new ACC and out-of-conference opponents. Cal opens with UC Davis at home, then travels to Auburn in Week 2 before facing San Diego State at home for Week 3.
In ACC play, Cal has road games against No. 10 Florida State, Pitt, Wake Forest and SMU. The home games include No. 19 Miami, No. 24 NC State, Oregon State, Syracuse and Stanford. If Wilcox can take the Bears to a bowl game while navigating a cross-country schedule, he'll certainly earn another year.
Dave Aranda, Baylor
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Is notching just one winning season in five years good enough at Baylor? That's the question the top brass in Waco has to answer regarding Dave Aranda's future this season.
The 47-year-old enters 2024 with a 23-25 overall record. The best year for Baylor included a 12-2 season in 2021, which included a Sugar Bowl victory over Ole Miss. That was his second season with the team, following a 2-7 mark in 2020.
In 2021, though, Baylor went 6-7 with a Armed Forces Bowl loss to Air Force in 2022, and a 3-9 mark in 2023. In fact, the Bears had just two conference wins last season, against UCF and Cincinnati.
Baylor enters the 2024 season in a Big 12 that no longer has Texas and Oklahoma but adds Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah. If Aranda wants another year in Waco, having a season more like 2021 would help.
The good news for the head coach is that he gets a ton of production back. The Bears rank ninth nationally in overall returning production, getting 76 percent back on offense, with 83 percent on defense, good for fifth in the country. Baylor's leading tackler from last season, Matt Jones, will lead the experienced unit.
At quarterback, Aranda will need to decide between Sawyer Robertson or Toledo transfer Dequan Finn. Whoever wins the job will be playing behind an experienced offensive line, and leading receiver Monaray Baldwin and running back Dominic Richardson also return.
As for Baylor's schedule, it looks relatively manageable. The out-of-conference slate includes Tarleton State and Air Force. In conference play, the Bears play No. 12 Utah, Colorado, Iowa State, Texas Tech, WVU and Houston on the road. The home games come vs. BYU, No. 17 Oklahoma State and No. 22 Kansas to close out the regular season.
If Aranda can lead Baylor to a season capped off with a bowl season, he'll probably earn another season. Anything under .500 probably won't do.
Sam Pittman, Arkansas
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Sam Pittman's career in Fayetteville has had its ups and downs. Following a 3-7 first season, he led Arkansas to consecutive bowl-winning seasons, including a 9-4 mark in 2021 and a 7-6 finish a year later.
But things went south pretty quickly for the Razorbacks last season, going 2-6 to start the year before closing out with a 2-2 mark. What's worse is that the season featured just one conference win, over Florida in early November.
Despite expected rumblings about Pittman's future, Arkansas announced that the head coach would return in 2024.
The 62-year-old lost several key players in the offseason. Among the biggest departures were three-year starting quarterback KJ Jefferson, who has since gone to UCF. Running back Raheim Sanders, who rushed for a career-high 1,443 yards with 10 touchdowns in 2022, transferred to South Carolina. He spent most of 2023 dealing with injuries, and he rushed for just 209 yards with two touchdowns.
On defense, Arkansas saw starting defensive back Lorando Johnson transfer to Baylor, linebacker and leading tackler Jaheim Thomas move to WIsconsin, and the Razorbacks' second-leading tackler Chris Paul Jr. go to Ole Miss.
As a result, the Razorbacks check in 83rd overall in S&P+ returning production, including 65th on offense and 91st on defense.
For Pittman, he probably needs a winning season to remain in Fayetteville. To do so, he'll have to navigate a tough schedule. It features games against seven ranked opponents, including a Sept. 7 road trip to No. 17 Oklahoma State in Week 2.
The good news for Arkansas? Most of its toughest SEC games will either be played at home or in a neutral site. It plays No. 20 Texas A&M in Jerry World on Sept. 28, and gets No. 15 Tennessee, No. 13 LSU, No. 6 Ole Miss and No. 4 Texas are all at home. The Hogs will go on the road to face Auburn, Mississippi State and No. 11 Missouri to close out the season.
Getting so many of 2024's toughest opponents in Fayetteville is huge for Arkansas. We'll see if Pittman can capitalize on that and put together a successful season.
Billy Napier, Florida
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As Billy Napier enters Year Three, he'll be coaching to save his job in 2024. And he'll do so while navigating one of the toughest schedules in the country, especially in the backend.
The Gators have finished a combined 11-14 in the last two seasons and didn't make a bowl last year.
Dating back to Dan Mullen's last year in 2021, Florida has had three straight losing seasons for the first time since the mid-1940s. It's no secret that the team would be hard-pressed to keep a coach who hasn't cracked .500 his entire career.
Florida showed some flashes of potential last season. It upset then-No. 11 Tennessee in Week 3. Its come-from-behind road victory over South Carolina in mid-September put it at 5-2 on the season.
However, the Gators proceeded to lose their last five straight games, and also lost starting quarterback Graham Mertz to a shoulder injury in a loss to Missouri.
One thing Napier could hang his hat on was Florida's top-five 2024 recruiting class he had heading into early signing period and national signing day. When the dust settled, though, the Gators' class ranked just 13th nationally.
The class ultimately lost a whopping eight blue-chip commits, including 5-star defensive lineman Amaris Williams and 4-star DL Nasir Johnson, who flipped to Auburn and Georgia, respectively.
The Gators enter 2024 returning 73 percent of their returning production on offense—including Mertz under center—and 66 percent on defense. Transfer portal products like cornerback Cormani McClain, defensive lineman Joey Slackman and receiver Elijhah Badger will be welcome additions. But any optimism surrounding Florida's outlook for 2024 is dimmed by the brutal schedule in front of the team.
Its out-of-conference schedule features No. 19 Miami at home Week 1, Samford in Week 2 and a home game against UCF on Oct. 5. Then comes the SEC slate, which includes No. 20 Texas A&M at home, at Mississippi State on Sept. 21 and at No. 15 Tennessee on Oct. 12 before playing Kentucky at home on Oct. 19.
But just look at the slate Florida has in November:
Making it out of that schedule above .500 might just be good enough to keep Napier around. Anything less might not be enough.
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