8 NFL Free Agents Most Likely to Bust After 2024 Training Camp
The early NFL offseason is a time of hope, especially for teams that add a slew of shiny new pieces in free agency. Some teams will look a lot better, on paper, in the spring than they did in the winter. Inevitably, though, some signings simply don't yield the desired results.
Sometimes the red flags are apparent right away. When the Las Vegas Raiders made last year's ill-fated play for Jimmy Garoppolo, for example, he was coming off a season-ending injury and had never truly shined alongside one of the league's best supporting casts.
Other times, concerns begin to mount in the summer due to poor performances and/or injuries. Miles Sanders, for example, missed the 2023 preseason with a groin injury, and the Carolina Panthers ended up pulling the 2022 Pro Bowler from the starting lineup after only five games.
We can only speculate on who will become the biggest free-agent busts of 2024. However, we can identify some likely candidates based on factors like past performance, team fit, player health, contract implications and general expectations.
Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Miami Dolphins
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It's no secret that the Miami Dolphins love having speed on their offense. Therefore, it wasn't much of a surprise when they signed Odell Beckham Jr. this offseason.
While Beckham has clearly lost a step over the past few years, he showed that he can still rip off the occasional chunk play last season with the Baltimore Ravens. He finished the year with 35 catches for 565 yards and three touchdowns—though it's worth noting he wasn't a big part of the game plan over the final month of the season.
Unfortunately, it may be hard for the Dolphins to even get average production out of Beckham in 2024, at least early. The 31-year-old opened training camp on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list with an undisclosed injury, and it appears that he's not close to returning.
"Odell Beckham Jr. won't come off PUP this week, and is week to week," Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald posted on X on Monday.
Even if Beckham returns for the regular season, he's lost valuable reps in Mike McDaniel's offense, and a sluggish star could doom him in a lineup that doesn't lack legitimate playmakers. The cost to sign Beckham wasn't high (one year, $3 million), but by targeting him, Miami may have passed on the chance to add a different and more impactful receiver.
Kevin Byard III, S, Chicago Bears
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The Chicago Bears made plenty of good decisions this offseason in addition to snagging Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick. However, releasing veteran safety Eddie Jackson only to sign another aging, overpriced defensive back in Kevin Byard probably wasn't one of them.
Byard is a seasoned defender who can help give the upstart Bears another leader on defense. He's a two-time Pro Bowler with 121 starts and can still rack up tackles in bunches—he had two in limited action in Chicago's second preseason game.
However, Byard will also turn 31 next month and has provided diminishing returns as a coverage safety. In 16 games with the Tennessee Titans and Philadelphia Eagles last season, he allowed an opposing passer rating of 102.1 in coverage. That was better than the 120.6 rating Jackson allowed in 2023, but it still wasn't great.
To secure Byard, Chicago shelled out a two-year, $15 million contract—a surprisingly large sum, considering safeties like Geno Stone, Justin Simmons, Kamren Curl and Xavier McKinney were available this offseason.
The Bears are expecting Byard to be a dependable starter, they're paying him accordingly, and it's not difficult to envision them being disappointed by midseason.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Atlanta Falcons
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Let's be clear. Kirk Cousins was the best quarterback available in 2024 free agency, and the Atlanta Falcons have been desperate to solidify the QB position since moving on from Matt Ryan in 2022.
With an otherwise strong roster, adding Cousins might be enough to make the Falcons legitimate playoff contenders this season. However, the fact remains that Atlanta gave Cousins a four-year, $180 million deal that includes $100 million guaranteed. That's simply too much for a 35-year-old who is coming off a torn Achilles and has a serious lack of playoff success on his resume.
It's incredibly difficult to see the results justifying the contract here, especially with rookie first-round pick Michael Penix Jr. now waiting in the wings. There's a very real chance that Atlanta will look to turn things over to Penix within the next couple of seasons. The soonest they can realistically move on from Cousins, though, will be in 2026. Releasing Cousins after three years would trigger a $35 million dead-cap hit but would save $22 million in cap space.
While having a succession plan is smart, Penix's presence adds to Cousins' bust potential. Fans are likely to call for the youngster the first time Cousins strings a couple of bad games together. Players might feel the same way after seeing the rookie's potential on the practice field.
Penix, for what it's worth, flashed his arm talent, mobility and progression skills during a solid (9-of-16 for 104 yards) preseason debut. If the rookie continues to develop rapidly, Cousins might not even give Atlanta its best chance to win by season's end.
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Marcus Davenport, Edge, Detroit Lions
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This offseason the Detroit Lions took some big swings at improving a defense that wasn't quite championship-caliber in 2023. They traded for cornerback Carlton Davis and used their top two draft picks on corners Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr.
However, Detroit didn't adequately address its need for a potent pass-rushing complement to star Aidan Hutchinson. The Lions instead opted for Marcus Davenport on a one-year, $6.5 million deal.
While Davenport's price point is fair, he's unlikely to be that proverbial missing piece to the pass-rushing puzzle. The 27-year-old has consistently underwhelmed since the New Orleans Saints made him a first-round pick in 2018.
Davenport has had exactly one "good" season out of six with the Saints and Minnesota Vikings. He produced nine sacks in 2021. In his other five campaigns, he averaged just under three sacks per season.
Health has also been a bit of a recent issue for Davenport, who underwent multiple offseason surgeries in 2022 and appeared in only four games last season before a season-ending calf injury.
Davenport also opened this year's training camp on the PUP list, though he didn't stay there long.
On an individual level, Davenport might not carry high expectations into the 2024 season. Given Detroit's need for a reliable second sack artist, though, he may still end up with the dreaded "bust" label.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
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The Dallas Cowboys didn't do a lot right this offseason, and the mishandling of their backfield falls right in line with their other missteps.
The Cowboys are set to enter 2024 with Dak Prescott in a contract year and star wideout CeeDee Lamb potentially holding out into the regular season for a new contract. They're likely to count on two rookie starters along the offensive line, and it's highly unlikely that Dallas will support the offense with a strong ground game.
Dallas lost 2023 starter Tony Pollard in free agency and brought back Ezekiel Elliott to replace him. The problem is that Elliott hasn't been a truly effective starter since the 2021 season.
Elliott had a couple of big games for the New England Patriots last season, but he averaged just 3.5 yards per carry on the year. The 29-year-old averaged 4.0 yards per carry or less in each of the past two seasons and in three of the past four.
The Cowboys only signed Elliott to a modest one-year, $2 million deal, but the expectation is that he'll lead a committee backfield that also includes Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn and Royce Freeman.
Dallas' line wasn't particularly good at opening running lanes last season, and if the preseason opener is any indication, things might not be better in 2024—discounting Trey Lance scrambles, the Cowboys averaged just 2.9 yards per rush on Sunday. That's not encouraging for a team whose lead back has lost a lot of his burst.
The Cowboys ground game is likely to disappoint in 2024, and, fair or not, Elliott is sure to take a lot of the blame.
Robert Hunt, G, Carolina Panthers
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We can give the Carolina Panthers credit for trying to improve Bryce Young's supporting cast this offseason. Carolina landed former Dolphins guard Robert Hunt, and he was the second-ranked guard on Bleacher Report's free-agent big board.
That said, the Panthers massively overpaid to secure Hunt, who was limited to 11 games by injuries last season. Bad teams often overpay to land quality players, but even so, giving Hunt a five-year, $100 million deal with $63 million guaranteed was too much.
Hunt has been a solid, reliable starter, but as ESPN's Aaron Schatz pointed out, the 27-year-old hasn't even been above-average over the last two seasons.
"Hunt was below average among guards in both pass block win rate (89.6%) and run block win rate (68.6%) last season. The season before, he was 20th in pass block win rate but again below average in run block win rate. It doesn't scream, 'Hey, make me the second-highest paid right guard in the NFL.'"
Hunt is now the league's second-highest-paid guard in terms of total value, and his contract ranks third in annual value.
That kind of money carries huge expectations. With the rebuilding Panthers likely to experience some offensive growing pains this season—they mustered a mere three points in their preseason opener—we're guessing that Hunt will fail to meet them.
Drew Lock, QB, New York Giants
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Can a $5 million backup quarterback really be considered a bust? When he's signed to provide insurance behind a middling starter coming off a serious injury, the answer is "yes."
The New York Giants still don't know if Daniel Jones can be their long-term answer at quarterback, or if they can even win with him in 2024. Jones had a miserable 2023 campaign even before he was lost to a season-ending ACL tear.
Enter Drew Lock, the 27-year-old former Denver Bronco and Seattle Seahawk who has flashed enough potential in the NFL to stir up some early-offseason buzz about a quarterback controversy.
"I believe Drew Lock has a really good shot of winning that job," NFL Media's Daniel Jeremiah said on his Move the Sticks podcast (h/t Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post).
It's looking increasingly likely that it'll be Jones-or-bust for the Giants in 2024, though—or, perhaps more Tommy DeVito.
Lock looked completely overwhelmed in New York's preseason opener, going 4-of-10 for 17 yards and an interception, failing to notice a wide-open Malik Nabers and eventually exiting the game with an oblique injury.
Head coach Brian Daboll has stated that the Giants don't plan to add another quarterback, but perhaps they should. Lock simply doesn't appear poised to improve New York's quarterback situation in 2024.
Jonah Williams, OT, Arizona Cardinals
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Jonah Williams ranked third among offensive tackles on the B/R free-agency big board. However, that has more to do with Williams' youth (26 years old) and the dearth of long-term tackle options available on this year's market than Williams' track record.
That track record, to put it bluntly, has not been good.
A 2019 first-round pick by the Cincinnati Bengals, Williams was a borderline disaster as Cincinnati's left tackle. He was a bit better on the right side—where his play strength and run blocking were bigger assets—this past season, but the results were still lackluster.
Williams was responsible for five penalties and eight sacks allowed in 2023, according to Pro Football Focus.
The good news is that the Arizona Cardinals didn't blatantly overpay to add Williams, though his two-year, $30 million deal is still excessive. And signing him gave the Cardinals the flexibility to take wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. at the top of the draft.
The bad news is that Arizona is expecting Williams to be a reliable starter on the right side after moving Paris Johnson Jr. to the left. Whether he's played right or left tackle, dependability has never been Williams' strong suit.
*Contract information via Spotrac.
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