Predicting Every NFL Division's Standings for 2024 Season After Preseason Week 1
After weeks of NFL training camp practices and a full slate of preseason games, it's time for another round of 2024 win-loss predictions.
We've read through camp observations, watched exhibition games and looked over injury reports.
Based on our findings, some teams are trending up, and others have given rise to concerns since our May projections.
Since the NFL approved the 17-game schedule for the 2021 season, six different teams have made the playoffs year to year.
Will that trend continue in 2024?
Let's go through each division and then lay out the playoff seeding for both conferences.
AFC East
1 of 9
Miami Dolphins (11-6)
The Dolphins tend to shrink in cold temperatures. Now, they have a three-man backfield that features Raheem Mostert, De'Von Achane and rookie fourth-rounder Jaylen Wright, which will help them battle with physical teams in December and January. Once Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips return from injuries, Miami's defense should be able to get off the field and let its high-powered offense take over.
New York Jets (10-7)
The Jets experienced offseason drama with Aaron Rodgers' trip to Egypt and are in a contract standoff with star edge-rusher Haason Reddick. They have plenty of time to resolve their situation with Reddick. Once they get past offseason distractions, their balanced roster can rack up 10 wins. Rodgers shows he can still play at a high level and leads Gang Green to the playoffs.
Buffalo Bills (9-8)
As Josh Allen builds connections with his new receivers and stronger ones with familiar faces, he may play a little more hero ball than the Bills would like to see, which could cost them some games. Yet he's talented enough to get hot and go on a run similar to last season. Despite key departures on defense, head coach Sean McDermott maintains a top-tier unit to help out an offense that may struggle in spots.
New England Patriots (3-14)
The Patriots are building a new culture in their first year without Bill Belichick since 1999. New England traded its most established pass-rusher, Matthew Judon, to the Atlanta Falcons, and the offense will go through rough stretches with either or both journeyman quarterback Jacoby Brissett and rookie Drake Maye. The Patriots have a couple of intriguing rookie wideouts, Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, who could bring a spark to the offense. They're in full rebuild mode though.
AFC North
2 of 9
Cincinnati Bengals (11-6)
As long as quarterback Joe Burrow stays healthy, the Bengals will be back atop the AFC North, as they were in 2021 and 2022. You can bet (responsibly) on the Bengals signing wideout Ja'Marr Chase to an extension before Week 1. With Chase, Tee Higgins and an underrated Mike Gesicki at tight end, Cincinnati will field a prolific passing attack. Lou Anarumo's defense will rank within the top 12 in takeaways for a third consecutive campaign to balance a playoff-caliber squad.
Baltimore Ravens (10-7)
The Ravens signed Derrick Henry, who fits their physical culture, though they could have issues blocking for him and protecting a much slimmer Lamar Jackson this year. The Ravens lost three starting offensive linemen from the previous season. Baltimore will also have to adjust defensively after its former coordinator, Mike MacDonald, took the Seattle Seahawks' head-coaching job. The Ravens still have a playoff-caliber roster, but they won't be as dominant as last year.
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8)
With or without wideout Brandon Aiyuk, Pittsburgh will field a run-heavy offense under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith who should feature Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren as one of the league's best running back duos. Typically, the Steelers field a stingy defense, but they must figure out how to get the best out of 35-year-old Russell Wilson or Justin Fields, which isn't an easy task with possibly two rookie starters along the offensive line.
Cleveland Browns (8-9)
Deshaun Watson's production will determine whether Cleveland remains in the playoff picture or finishes with a sub-.500 record. In 14 games with the Browns, he's thrown for 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions with a 59.8 percent completion rate. The Browns' stingy defense should keep them in games. On the flip side, running back Nick Chubb doesn't have a timetable for return, and Joe Flacco isn't there to bail the offense out if Watson struggles or is unavailable down the stretch.
AFC South
3 of 9
Houston Texans (12-5)
The Texans won't sneak up on anyone this year. Yet they're still primed to become a juggernaut in the AFC with 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud. He has a new playmaker in Stefon Diggs who will join Nico Collins and Tank Dell to form a high-level receiver trio. Joe Mixon can balance the offense on the ground. Houston could field a top-10 defense with the addition of four-time Pro Bowl edge-rusher Danielle Hunter. The Texans have no glaring weaknesses. They will be the AFC's No. 1 seed.
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-9)
The Jaguars added wideouts Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr., but they didn't have a problem with their offensive firepower. Jacksonville's passing offense finished ninth in total yards last year. Doug Pederson has to go against his pass-heavy track record as a head coach and make a stronger commitment to run the ball, which may cut down on turnovers. That remains to be seen. Jacksonville's defense may need an adjustment period under new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen. This team has notable question marks.
Indianapolis Colts (7-10)
Anthony Richardson has generated offseason buzz, though he has a small four-game sample size and perhaps some growing pains ahead of him. Running back Jonathan Taylor has missed 13 games over the last two years. Richardson and Taylor need to stay healthy for the offense to reach its full potential, and that's questionable with both of them coming off an injury-riddled campaign. Rookie first-round pass-rusher Laiatu Latu could make an immediate impact, but the Colts defense hasn't proven it can carry this team to victories.
Tennessee Titans (5-12)
Even though DeAndre Hopkins is banged up, quarterback Will Levis has the playmakers to make significant strides. Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd and pass-catching running backs Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears could be a handful for opposing defenses. However, Levis has a first-time play-caller in head coach Brian Callahan. The Titans defense also has a first-time play-caller, Dennard Wilson. Tennessee's collective talent may not reach its full potential with inexperienced coaches in key positions.
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AFC West
4 of 9
Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
Kansas City has all sorts of question marks at wide receiver. According to NFL insider James Palmer, the league could suspend Rashee Rice for his involvement in a March car accident. Marquise Brown will miss four to six weeks with a shoulder injury, per NFL reporter Jordan Schultz. Xavier Worthy is a rookie. Yet the Chiefs will figure it out with Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City has won at least 11 contests and advanced to the AFC Championship Game in every season with Mahomes as its full-time starting quarterback.
Los Angeles Chargers (9-8)
Based on head coach Jim Harbaugh's track record, Los Angeles will see immediate overall improvement. That said, the Chargers don't have the playmaking receivers to attack pass defenses. Justin Herbert is already dealing with a foot injury, too. The Chargers can run the ball, but their top tailbacks have extensive recent injury histories. Between 2020 and 2023, Gus Edwards missed 25 games, and J.K. Dobbins missed 43 outings. The Chargers don't have the reliable offensive firepower to win 10-plus games.
Las Vegas Raiders (8-9)
Las Vegas has what it takes for a playoff push–except a bonafide starting quarterback. Last season, the Raiders finished ninth in defensive scoring and added Christian Wilkins in free agency. Davante Adams and Brock Bowers will complement each other in the passing game. But offensive coordinator Luke Getsy has a lot to prove after he struggled to develop Justin Fields in Chicago. Now, he has journeyman Gardner Minshew and unproven second-year pro Aidan O'Connell. The Raiders offense will be their Achilles' heel.
Denver Broncos (6-11)
Rookie quarterback Bo Nix had a solid preseason debut. The Broncos should start him in Week 1 over journeyman Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson, who had a disastrous three-year tenure with the New York Jets. Eventually, he has to learn on the job in regular-season action. Every rookie quarterback isn't going to bloom right away like C.J. Stroud. Nix will show flashes, but he's not ready to carry a team that struggled mightily defensively last season.
NFC East
5 of 9
Philadelphia Eagles (10-7)
The Eagles lost projected wins from our previous predictions because of rumors about a "fractured" relationship between head coach Nick Sirianni and quarterback Jalen Hurts (h/t ESPN's Jeremy Fowler and Tim McManus). Sirianni and Hurts' differences could have a catastrophic impact on the team. Still, Philadelphia has enough talent (welcome aboard, Saquon Barkley) to overcome a tense locker room. Also, offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio are upgrades over the team's play-callers from 2023.
Dallas Cowboys (9-8)
The Cowboys will likely sign CeeDee Lamb to a massive extension before Week 1. He's Dak Prescott's go-to receiver and the team's best offensive playmaker. On the other hand, Dallas may lack offensive balance with ninth-year year pro Ezekiel Elliott and an unproven group of running backs in the backfield. The Cowboys' transition from former defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to Mike Zimmer, whose last two units ranked 24th or worse in scoring and total yards, seems like a downgrade.
Washington Commanders (8-9)
The Commanders could be a surprise playoff team if they can figure out their offensive line, which may feature two inexperienced starters on the left side. Jayden Daniels, who won the 2023 Heisman Trophy, can be a playmaker with his arm and legs. He'll have a reliable go-to wideout, Terry McLaurin. Head coach Dan Quinn and play-caller Joe Whitt Jr. will reinvigorate Washington's defense. The Commanders will pull off some upsets, though they're probably a year away from playoff contention.
New York Giants (4-13)
The Giants will give Daniel Jones another shot to prove he's their franchise quarterback. Since his rookie year, Jones hasn't done enough to make anyone, other than the executives in Big Blue's front office, believe that he could be the guy in New York. Without Saquon Barkley, the Giants will rely on rookie wideout Malik Nabers to provide an offensive spark. Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence II will be a nightmare for offenses, but Big Blue will struggle to score in most games.
NFC North
6 of 9
Detroit Lions (12-5)
Every year under head coach Dan Campbell, Detroit has improved its win total from the previous season. In 2023, the Lions went 12-5. So, Detroit won't make a jump in the standings this year. However, with the addition of rookie first-rounder Terrion Arnold, rookie second-rounder Ennis Rakestraw Jr., Carlton Davis and Amik Robertson, the Lions will have a much-improved defense to match their high-powered offense. With a more well-rounded roster, the Lions are coming for the NFC's No. 1 seed.
Green Bay Packers (11-6)
The Packers will be one of the league's most intriguing teams because they have a budding offense led by Jordan Love and multiple receivers 25 years old or younger who can lead the team in catches and receiving yards in any given week. New defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley may be able to elevate an underachieving unit that features multiple recent first-rounders at every level. Green Bay continues to trend in the right direction as a team on the rise.
Chicago Bears (10-7)
The Bears will make a surprise run for a playoff spot in a highly competitive division. Caleb Williams, this year's No. 1 overall pick, has the supporting cast to lead a top-10 passing attack. With Keenan Allen, DJ Moore and rookie first-rounder Rome Odunze on the perimeter, Williams could be the franchise's first 4,000-plus-yard passer. Chicago's defense has a Pro Bowl-caliber player on every level to slow down opposing offenses. The Bears are built to win scoring shootouts and physical low-scoring matchups.
Minnesota Vikings (7-10)
According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy will undergo surgery on a torn meniscus, which will sideline him for the 2024 season. Projected starting quarterback Sam Darnold could have his best year with wideouts Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, but he's prone to turnovers. Darnold could put the defense in tough spots. The Vikings lost Danielle Hunter in free agency. Rookie Dallas Turner has shown promise, but Minnesota's secondary has major question marks.
NFC South
7 of 9
Atlanta Falcons (9-8)
Kirk Cousins is a significant upgrade over Desmond Ridder, whom the Falcons traded to the Arizona Cardinals, and Taylor Heinicke. He'll throw to a couple of big targets, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. To protect him, Atlanta returns its entire offensive line from 2023. Most importantly, new head coach Raheem Morris understands that he must feed his stud running back, Bijan Robinson. The Falcons will get a boost from four-time Pro Bowl edge-rusher Matthew Judon, who will help the defense close games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
The Buccaneers maintained the core of their offense, signing quarterback Baker Mayfield and wideout Mike Evans to extensions. New play-caller Liam Coen must figure out how to get the run game going with Rachaad White and perhaps rookie Bucky Irving to balance the offensive attack. Tampa Bay's offense may be a work in progress under Liam. More concerning though, Todd Bowles had a leaky defense that finished 23rd in total yards last season.
New Orleans Saints (7-10)
In 2023, the Saints offense had too many lulls. At times, Derek Carr racked up passing numbers while his team trailed by multiple scores only to fall short of a comeback. Carr has a new coordinator, Klint Kubiak, but he may also have a shaky offensive line. Guard Lucas Patrick drew 11 penalties last season, per Pro Football Focus. Offensive tackle Trevor Penning has struggled in the pros. Taliese Fuaga is a rookie. The Saints defense won't allow a ton of points, but the offensive line could cost them games early in the season.
Carolina Panthers (5-12)
Carolina will increase its win total by three from the previous season, which isn't saying much, but we have to give Bryce Young time to develop under first-time head coach Dave Canales. In his second year, Young has to learn a new system, which may be geared toward a ground-and-pound approach with rookie tailback Jonathon Brooks and Chuba Hubbard leading the charge. Carolina's offense may be methodical, and its defense needs to jell with turnover at every level. Be patient with the Panthers as they take baby steps.
NFC West
8 of 9
San Francisco 49ers (11-6)
The 49ers can reach 11 wins with or without wideout Brandon Aiyuk. Kyle Shanahan's run-heavy offense needs Christian McCaffrey, but it can rotate decent pass-catchers. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are major playmakers in the passing game. Going into his third year, quarterback Brock Purdy should be more comfortable in Shanahan's system. Despite a revolving door at the defensive coordinator position, the 49ers have maintained a stout unit. Nick Sorensen's play-calling inexperience won't significantly hurt the group.
Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
If Matthew Stafford stays healthy, Los Angeles is a playoff team. The Rams drafted Blake Corum to pair with Kyren Williams in their backfield. They can attack defenses on the ground or through the air with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Without Aaron Donald, the Rams' young defensive front can make a name for itself. In 2023, Byron Young and Kobie Turner registered 17 sacks and 50 pressures combined. Rookies Jared Verse and Braden Fiske will join them. Collectively, that quartet could wreak havoc in the trenches.
Seattle Seahawks (8-9)
The Seahawks are the wild-card NFC West squad. They hired first-time head coach Mike MacDonald, who fielded the No. 1 scoring defense as the Baltimore Ravens coordinator last season. With multiple Pro Bowl defensive backs on the roster, he's going to turn Seattle's defense into a top-10 unit. Nonetheless, Geno Smith's play will make or break this team. He saw a drop-off in his passing efficiency between 2022 and 2023. Smith may be under pressure with a new coaching staff. Sam Howell could start some games in 2024.
Arizona Cardinals (6-11)
The Cardinals will be a fun team to watch, but they don't have a playoff-ready roster. Expect Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. to click as a budding quarterback-receiver tandem. Trey McBride should continue to blossom into one of the league's best pass-catching tight ends. However, the Cardinals may field one of the worst defensive units. They don't have a standout pass-rusher and lost BJ Ojulari (torn ACL) for the season. Arizona could start two inexperienced cornerbacks, too. The Cardinals will score and give up a lot of points.
Playoff Seeding
9 of 9
AFC
1. Houston Texans (12-5)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (11-6)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
4. Miami Dolphins (11-6)
5. Baltimore Ravens (10-7)
6. New York Jets (10-7)
7. Buffalo Bills (9-8)
NFC
1. Detroit Lions (12-5)
2. San Francisco 49ers (11-6)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-7)
4. Atlanta Falcons (9-8)
5. Green Bay Packers (11-6)
6. Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
7. Chicago Bears (10-7)
Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.
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.jpg?w=480 "Commanders Giants Football")
