NHL Stanley Cup Final 2024: Odds, Hot Takes, Top Storylines for Game 1

The Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers kick off the Stanley Cup Final on Saturday after close to a week off for both teams.

The Panthers confirmed their spot in the NHL's championship series last Saturday. Edmonton set up the matchup one day later.

Florida is expected to have a slight edge on home ice to kick off the series, but the Oilers can be competitive in any game with Connor McDavid on the ice.

Game 1 should be a good lesson for us in how the Panthers will try to defend the best hockey player in the world.

The Panthers' defense played well throughout the postseason, and in order to open the series with a win, they must slow down McDavid and their power play be more effective than Edmonton's special teams unit.

Game 1 Odds

Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

SUNRISE, FL - MAY 28: Florida Panthers center Sam Reinhart (13) celebrates his overtime game winning goal during game four of the Eastern Conference Finals between the New York Rangers and the Florida Panthers on Tuesday, May 28, 2024 at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Money Line

Florida (-148; bet $148 to win $100)

Edmonton (+124; bet $100 to win $124)

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Puck Line

Florida (-1.5; +185)

Edmonton (+1.5; -225)

Over/Under: 5.5

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Series Prices

Florida: -135

Edmonton: +115

Florida's Power Play Strikes First

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SUNRISE, FLORIDA - MAY 28: Carter Verhaeghe #23 of the Florida Panthers celebrates after scoring a goal past Igor Shesterkin #31 of the New York Rangers during the second period in Game Four of the Eastern Conference Final of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amerant Bank Arena on May 28, 2024 in Sunrise, Florida. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

Florida leads the NHL playoffs in penalty minutes and Edmonton has the best postseason power play.

So the assumption would be that the Oilers' lethal power play strikes first in the series.

However, the Panthers could turn the tables on the power-play discussion with an early goal from their own unit.

That would send a message to the Oilers, who come into the Stanley Cup Final with the best penalty kill percentage in the NHL postseason at 93.9 percent.

Edmonton's disadvantage is in net with Stuart Skinner, and if Florida gets on the power play, the quick passing between Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Reinhart and Aleksandar Barkov could catch Skinner off his line in net.

Florida needs to go after Edmonton's second and third defense pairings, which have come under criticism this postseason, with its speed to draw the penalties and then catch Skinner off balance.

Edmonton could still score with a man advantage, but if Florida does it first, it could provide a massive confidence boost for the Panthers in the series.

At Least One Defenseman Scores

Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

DALLAS, TEXAS - MAY 31: Mattias Ekholm #14 of the Edmonton Oilers brings the puck off the boards against the Dallas Stars in the first period during Game Five of the Western Conference Final of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at American Airlines Center on May 31, 2024 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

Both teams have two defenseman with at least 30 shots on goal this postseason.

Evan Bouchard leads that group because of his role as the anchor of Edmonton's power play at the top of the offensive zone.

Darnell Nurse has 32 shots on goal for the Oilers, while Mattias Ekholm, Bouchard's defensive partner, put 29 pucks on net this postseason.

Gustav Forsling and Brandon Montour are fifth and sixth on the Panthers roster in shots on goal in the playoffs.

All of those defensemen have shown no fear sending the puck in from long range in their first three series. We should see a similar approach to try and catch Skinner or Sergei Bobrovsky off guard.

Bouchard is the most likely scorer of the bunch because he is on Edmonton's top power-play unit, but keep eyes on Ekholm and Forsling. Ekholm scored twice on the road this postseason and Forsling was one Florida's most active offensive players in the Eastern Conference Final.

Prediction

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NEW YORK, NY - MAY 30: Matthew Tkachuk #19 of the Florida Panthers skates during the second period of the National Hockey League Eastern Conference Final game 5 against the New York Rangers on May 30, 2024 at Madison Square Garden in New York. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Florida should be listed as the favorite going into Game 1 because of its defensive prowess.

The Panthers hold the edge in net with Bobrovsky over Skinner, but the play in front of their netminder needs to be stellar as well.

McDavid will create one or two chances for himself, but Florida can't allow him to have six or seven significant scoring opportunities.

Florida did a tremendous job of slowing down the New York Rangers' top skaters in the Eastern Conference Final. If that defense translates to Game 1, the Panthers should take the advantage in the series and make the Oilers adjust to their style of play.

Edmonton wins if its top unit overwhelms Florida and the home side can't control McDavid and Zach Hyman.

Prediction: Florida 3, Edmonton 2

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