Ranking the MLB Trade Deadline Fire Sales We're Not-So-Secretly Hoping to See
The 2023 Major League Baseball trade deadline was uncommonly uneventful. The Shohei Ohtani speculations were fun, but once the Angels decided to buy rather than sell, even the Mets parting with both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander wasn't enough to salvage much entertainment.
However, this year's July 30 trade deadline could be absolute chaos, as there are a bunch of disappointing teams with high-quality, soon-to-be free agents positioned to potentially embrace one heck of a fire sale.
For a team to be considered a candidate for this list, it needs to meet two criteria:
- A reasonable likelihood of being far enough back in the standings to embrace selling.
- Enough expiring contracts to put together a legitimate fire sale.
To satisfy the first criterion, any team currently five or more games above .500 was immediately crossed out. That doesn't mean we're 100 percent confident those teams will be buyers two months from now, but there's no good reason to speculate on the amount of MLB talent the Yankees or Dodgers might be willing to give up.
As far as the latter criterion is concerned, we looked at each team's list of players hitting free agency either this coming offseason or the next one and ranked the teams in ascending order of how much they have to offer.
Generally speaking, quantity outweighs quality, as giving up one star player can hardly be considered a fire sale. That said, there has to be some quality within that quantity, or else there won't be any shoppers coming to the fire sale.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 9
Boston Red Sox
Despite the constant deluge of injuries, they're treading water around .500 and wouldn't be sellers in their current state. If that changes, though, Tyler O'Neill, Kenley Jansen and Nick Pivetta will all become unrestricted free agents this winter and could be valuable trade chips.
Los Angeles Angels
If you think it's possible they'll trade away Mike Trout, maybe the Halos belong in the top five, as that would be an internet buster. But even without including Trout, Kevin Pillar has been inexplicably on fire since signing with L.A. at the beginning of May, closer Carlos Estevez is an impending free agent and both Tyler Anderson and Luis Rengifo would be nice 1.5-year offerings.
Miami Marlins
Tanner Scott on an expiring contract is a good one all but certain to get moved. However, this only becomes a fire sale situation if Miami trades Jazz Chisholm Jr. and/or Jesús Luzardo, both of whom are under team control through 2026. Even if that happens, though, there just aren't many pieces on this roster that would move the trade rumblings needle.
Oakland A's
Like Miami, this team is going nowhere fast and doesn't have much to offer as far as short-term rentals go—save for Paul Blackburn, who has one more year of arbitration eligibility in 2025. But for as much as we've talked about Mason Miller this season, we have to at least mention it'd be huge news if the A's traded him with five years of team control still to come.
San Diego Padres
If things go sideways in these next two months, it's plausible the Padres look to unload the likes of Dylan Cease, Michael King, Luis Arraez and Ha-Seong Kim, all of whom are slated to hit free agency after next season. But that's pretty unlikely. The only trade chip they might be looking to do something about is Jurickson Profar, who is thriving on a one-year, $1 million deal.
8. Arizona Diamondbacks
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Record: 25-30
Impending Free Agents: Christian Walker, Jordan Montgomery*, Merrill Kelly^, Paul Sewald, Miguel Castro, Eugenio Suárez^, Randal Grichuk*^, Joc Pederson*^, Kevin Newman, Tucker Barnhart
Scheduled to Reach FA Next Offseason: Zac Gallen, Matt Bowman, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Others Worth Mentioning: N/A
*2025 Player Option, ^2025 Club Option
Not even a full year removed from arriving "ahead of schedule," it's hard to believe the Arizona Diamondbacks might be on the verge of a fire sale.
It wouldn't be a situation where they burn it all down in pursuit of prospects, though. This would be much more of a controlled burn than some of the full-blown fire sales we might see this summer, as it's not like Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll or Gabriel Moreno are going anywhere—nor is there any realistic chance they'll trade Gallen, even though we are listing him here with just one year of arbitration eligibility remaining.
If they continue to play sub-.500 baseball, though, they could unload quite a few rentals ahead of the deadline.
Both Walker and Sewald would be coveted unrestricted free agents. The former already has double digit home runs, well on his way to a third consecutive season with at least 30. The latter missed the first six weeks of the season with an oblique strain, but he has been solid since returning.
Pederson's mutual option for 2025 could complicate trade negotiations a bit, but he is having one of the best seasons of his career and would be an instant upgrade at DH for about two dozen teams.
Then there's Montgomery, who has gotten out to a rough start to 2024 after hitting free agency for the first time in his career this past winter. He has a vesting player option for 2025 that could come with a price tag of as much as $25 million, though any deadline suitor should probably assume he will decline it. Even so, look no further than what he did last year with Texas for evidence of how much value he could add in just a few months.
7. Washington Nationals
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Record: 25-29
Impending Free Agents: Trevor Williams, Eddie Rosario, Jesse Winker, Dylan Floro, Jacob Barnes, Joey Gallo, Victor Robles, Patrick Corbin
Scheduled to Reach FA Next Offseason: Lane Thomas, Nick Senzel, Ildemaro Vargas, Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey, Tanner Rainey, Derek Law
Others Worth Mentioning: N/A
Compared to preseason expectations, the Washington Nationals are a surprisingly strong inclusion on this list.
To clarify, it's not surprising that they're probably going to be sellers. Just about everyone had this team projected for dead last in the NL East. But what is surprising is how much value they have to offer.
Williams had a brutal first season with the Nats, giving up an NL-most 34 home runs in 2023. This year, though, just two dingers allowed by the unexpected ace. Heck, he might be an All-Star if he can keep it up for a few more weeks.
Floro had a streak of 21.2 scoreless innings snapped on Sunday, and just might be the most coveted middle reliever out there this year.
Rosario, Winker and Senzel don't have great batting averages, but their combined total of 18 home runs, 55 RBI and 17 stolen bases is sure to generate interest for the teams hoping to plug a black hole in their lineup.
Maybe there's still a team out there who wants to take a flier on Gallo, too?
And if they trade some combination of Rosario, Winker, Gallo and Thomas, surely that will finally trigger the James Wood MLB debut we've been waiting to see, right?
6. Chicago White Sox
4 of 9
Record: 15-42
Impending Free Agents: Eloy Jiménez^, Martin Maldonado^, Max Stassi^, Yoán Moncada^, Paul DeJong, Tommy Pham, Mike Clevinger, Michael Soroka, Tim Hill, Dominic Leone
Scheduled to Reach FA Next Offseason: Nicky Lopez, Erick Fedde, John Brebbia, Michael Kopech
Others Worth Mentioning: Luis Robert Jr. (Club Options for 2026 and 2027)
^2025 Club Option
For as awful as the Chicago White Sox have been, there are some intriguing players here.
DeJong has had a respectable bounce-back from a brutal run through 2022-23 and may well be the top shortstop on the trade block this year.
Pham is batting nearly .300 with just a $3 million salary that could make him a top priority for a small-market contender like Kansas City.
Fedde has gone at least six scoreless innings in three of his last four starts and has been a revelation after returning from one year of pitching in Korea. His $7.5 million price tag for 2025 could make him a hot commodity.
Soroka has taken well to a long-relief role in recent weeks and appears to be healthy for the first time in a long time. He might be worth a flier.
And if Jiménez is healthy—always a big if for him—heading into the deadline, there will be plenty of interest there, too.
Whether they trade Robert, though, is what will dictate if this feels like a proper fire sale or just a half measure of recouping something for expiring assets.
Worth mentioning: Chicago would have a strong case for No. 1 on the list if it hadn't already traded away Dylan Cease in March, but he no longer counts toward whether a White Sox fire sale would make the trade deadline more entertaining.
5. St. Louis Cardinals
5 of 9
Record: 27-27
Impending Free Agents: Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter, Brandon Crawford, Kyle Gibson^, Lance Lynn^, Keynan Middleton^, Giovanny Gallegos^, Andrew Kittredge
Scheduled to Reach FA Next Offseason: Tommy Edman, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Ryan Helsley
Others Worth Mentioning: Sonny Gray (Club Option after 2026)
^2025 Club Option
A Cardinals fire sale isn't as inevitable as it seemed to be a couple of weeks ago. They've clawed their way back to a .500 record, as last week's sweep of the Orioles was a massive step in the right direction for a team that was 15-24 not long ago.
A Cardinals fire sale is still a possibility, though.
The big name here is 2022 NL MVP Goldschmidt, who has not so quietly anchored this resurgence. When the Cards were 15-24, Goldy's slugging percentage (.254) was well below his career batting average (.291), but he is hitting .302 with five home runs during this 15-game run back to .500 baseball. He has made it less likely that they will sell, but has become a much more valuable trade chip.
The pitching is where this could get all sorts of fun.
They have a $12 million club option (or $1M buyout) for Gibson and an $11 million club option (or $1M buyout) for Lynn. Both have pitched well enough so far to be of interest to one of the many teams that will be looking to upgrade its No. 4 or No. 5 starter, but not so well that St. Louis is necessarily wanting to pick up those options.
Gray is pitching every bit as well as he did last season and is presently a steal at a $10M salary in 2024. But that balloons to $25 million next year and $35 million in 2026, plus a $30 million club option (or $5M buyout) for 2027. The Cardinals might want to sell while they can.
And Helsley might be the most intriguing of all. Since the beginning of 2022, the closer has a 1.85 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 12.2 K/9 with 51 saves. He has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining and is making just $3.8M this season. They could surely get more for him than the Mariners got for trading away 1.5 years' worth of Paul Sewald last summer.
Will the Cardinals be willing to move those four pitchers, though? Doing so would be preemptively admitting that they probably aren't going to contend in 2025, which would be a surprising move.
4. Houston Astros
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Record: 24-32
Impending Free Agents: Alex Bregman, Justin Verlander*
Scheduled to Reach FA Next Offseason: Kyle Tucker, Victor Caratini, Framber Valdez, José Urquidy, Ryan Pressly, Rafael Montero
Others Worth Mentioning: N/A
*2025 Vesting Player Option
Even as the Houston Astros were mired in their disastrous 12-24 start to the season, a full-blown fire sale never seemed likely. That's not because they have too much pride to accept a lost season after seven consecutive trips to the ALCS, but simply because of a lack of expiring contracts. (Kendall Graveman will be a free agent this winter, but he is expected to miss the entire season while recovering from shoulder surgery and isn't a viable trade candidate.)
That said, trading Bregman (unrestricted free agent) and/or Verlander ($35M player option that only vests if he reaches 140 IP this season) would be massive news.
Or, if they really threw in the towel and put both Tucker and Valdez on the block with one year of arbitration eligibility still to come, that would be...not quite as big as when the Nationals traded away Juan Soto with 2.5 years of team control remaining, but an extremely significant development all the same.
Does anyone honestly think that is likely to happen, though?
Even the notion of trading away Bregman three months before he hits free agency felt unlikely, at best, when they were 12 games below .500. Now that they've made a couple of strides in the right direction, they would need to collapse all over again to consider dealing their star third baseman, let alone Verlander, Tucker and Valdez.
If they do end up in a position to sell, though, they could get aggressive and deliver some serious shockwaves to trade season.
3. San Francisco Giants
7 of 9
Record: 29-28
Impending Free Agents: Blake Snell*, Matt Chapman*, Wilmer Flores*, Robbie Ray*, Michael Conforto, Austin Slater, Nick Ahmed, Curt Casali, Alex Cobb, Luke Jackson^
Scheduled to Reach FA Next Offseason: Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade Jr., Taylor Rogers, Tyler Rogers
Others Worth Mentioning: N/A
*2025 Player Option, ^2025 Club Option
The way things are shaping up, we are headed for a third consecutive summer in which the San Francisco Giants are one of the biggest "Will they be buyers or sellers?" dominoes.
That domino never fell in either direction the past two years, though. In 2022, they ended July exactly at .500, never really committed to buying or selling and went 30-30 the rest of the way. Last year, they were in much better shape at 10 games above .500 heading into the deadline, but they still did nothing to improve the roster and cratered from there, going 18-34 in their final 52 games.
Could this be the year where they learn their lesson and finally get aggressive—as a seller?
If they're still treading water around .500 two months from now, those four player options will put the Giants in a tough spot. They could admit defeat and trade Snell and Chapman before they potentially walk for nothing this offseason. Or they could throw even more money at this season and risk a situation where they exceed their budget, miss the playoffs and then lose Snell and Chapman, too.
For trade musing purposes, though, here's hoping for the former.
Flores isn't having a great season and Ray will probably just be getting back from Tommy John surgery as the trade deadline is arriving. Tough to say what either of them would be worth. But just in Snell, Chapman and Conforto, the Giants could make serious waves.
2. New York Mets
8 of 9
Record: 22-33
Impending Free Agents: Pete Alonso, Harrison Bader, J.D. Martinez, Omar Narváez, Tomás Nido, Sean Manaea*, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, Adrian Houser, Adam Ottavino, Drew Smith, Shintaro Fujinami
Scheduled to Reach FA Next Offseason: Kodai Senga^, Edwin Díaz^, Starling Marte, Brooks Raley, Jake Diekman
Others Worth Mentioning: N/A
*2025 Player Option, ^2026 Player Option
The New York Mets spared us from what otherwise would have been an extremely boring trade deadline last summer, trading Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, David Robertson, Tommy Pham and Mark Canha to five different clubs who ultimately made the playoffs.
It was a solid four-alarm fire sale in advance of what could be a five-alarm extravaganza in a couple of months.
The big one is Alonso, even though he is currently slugging a bit worse than in any of his previous seasons in the big leagues. He would still instantly become the top home run threat for the vast majority of teams. The most aggressive suitor would likely be Houston, provided the Astros are a buyer and not a seller. Upgrading from Jon Singleton/Jose Abreu to Alonso at first base would be a game-changer.
Alonso is just the tip of the iceberg, though, as the Mets are basically drowning in soon-to-be free agents—which will clear the books enough for them to make a colossal offer to Juan Soto this winter. Bader, Martinez, Manaea, Severino, and Quintana have all been good enough thus far to generate some serious interest on the trade block.
Where things could get even more wild is with Senga and Díaz.
The former has yet to pitch this season and the latter hadn't looked anything like the dominant force that he used to be—and landed on the IL Wednesday. However, it's plausible (perhaps even likely) that they will both exercise their opt-out clauses after next season.
Senga and Díaz do both have full no-trade clauses, but that didn't stop Scherzer or Verlander from getting dealt last year.
If they do embrace selling again, the Mets will most likely retain both of those pitchers, focusing predominantly on getting something in return for the long list of players they're slated to lose this offseason. But it's worth mentioning the contract situations for those two, in case they really feel like cleaning house and cutting costs.
1. Toronto Blue Jays
9 of 9
Record: 26-29
Impending Free Agents: Danny Jansen, Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, Dan Vogelbach, Yusei Kikuchi, Yimi Garcia, Trevor Richards
Scheduled to Reach FA Next Offseason: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Cavan Biggio, Chris Bassitt, Jordan Romano, Chad Green, Tim Mayza, Erik Swanson, Genesis Cabrera
Others Worth Mentioning: Kevin Gausman (FA after 2026), Daulton Varsho (FA after 2026)
Even if the Toronto Blue Jays just unload their impending free agents, it would still be a pretty noisy summer north of the border.
Jansen and Kikuchi have been outstanding. Richards and Garcia are basically the only Blue Jays relievers who haven't been a disappointment. Turner and Kiermaier still have value as veterans.
They could get a solid return for that collection of several-month rentals.
Might they steer headlong into a rebuild, though, by parting with Guerrero, Bichette, Bassitt and Romano 15 months before they're slated for free agency?
All four former All-Stars started the year slow (or injured), but they've provided a good amount of value as of late. Some lot of good it's doing the Blue Jays, though, as they continue to languish in last place in the AL East.
It's the perfect storm for a fire sale in which they could fetch quite a bit for those players, if they're willing to put them on the trade block.
Most likely, they won't. That quartet could be the centerpiece of a bounce-back year in 2025, and surely there is still hope they'll be able to sign Guerrero and/or Bichette to a long-term extension before they walk.
But this could be an all-timer of a rapid unscheduled disassembly if they decide to put up an "Everything Must Go" sign.
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