5 Early Predictions for the 2024 NBA Draft
The 2024 NBA draft might be the trickiest to predict in recent memory.
We're here for a round of crystal-ball consultation regardless.
Who goes No. 1? Who falls farther than expected? How much trade activity should the hoops world expect?
Those questions and more will be answered (or educated-guessed) here.
At Least One All-Star Will Be Traded
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The conditions are perfect for a hyperactive trade market this summer.
There were no difference-makers moved at the February trade deadline. There are a number of teams who need to either add more to contend or abandon the championship race, several stars have surfaced on the rumor mill already, and franchises need to monitor their payrolls as the most damaging parts of the second-apron restrictions come into practice.
"There will be a lot of parts moved this offseason," an Eastern Conference executive told The Ringer's Howard Beck in February. "There's going to be some options, some high-level guys that ask to get moved."
Look for at least one of those moves to happen during the draft's opening round.
While this draft class maybe doesn't have a true blue-chip prospect, no one is saying it's bereft of talent. Just look at the player comparisons listed for the top-five picks in the latest mock draft from B/R's Jonathan Wasserman: Harrison Barnes (rock-solid starter), Evan Mobley (Cleveland's prized prospect), Rudy Gobert (four-time Defensive Player of the Year), Goran Dragić (All-Star and All-NBA third-teamer) and Anthony Black (last summer's No. 6 pick).
There's enough upside in this class that an early pick—probably paired with additional assets—should be able to deliver one of the stars being most talked about. Maybe it's a marquee name like Donovan Mitchell or Trae Young. Perhaps it's someone like Brandon Ingram, Dejounte Murray, Darius Garland or Jarrett Allen, players without quite as much name recognition but with an All-Star honor on their resume.
Two Top-10 Picks Will Change Hands
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Because reports on this draft class are—let's put this as politely as possible—less than stellar, there may not be as much eagerness for teams to try trading up the board. However, teams with early selections probably wouldn't hold them as tightly as they typically do, so we could (and, per this prediction, will) see movement at the top.
ESPN's Zach Lowe previously reported that both the Houston Rockets (who hold the No. 3 pick) and Memphis Grizzlies (are No. 9) are candidates to "parlay their picks into veteran help." And those aren't the only teams who could (and arguably should) consider moving a top-10 pick.
Do the San Antonio Spurs (Nos. 4 and 8) really want to put a pair of unpolished top-10 picks alongside the obviously-ready-to-elevate Victor Wembanyama? Are the Detroit Pistons (No. 5, as per usual) super enthused about making their young core even younger and less developed? If the Utah Jazz (No. 10) are as set on keeping Lauri Markkanen as it sounds, shouldn't they be searching for a more immediate impact than a raw rookie can provide?
Looking at the top 10 overall, it's easier to find potential trade candidates than it is to spot squads who should definitely keep their picks (the Washington Wizards, Charlotte Hornets and Portland Trail Blazers might comprise that entire section). If we do see a star or two change sceneries during the draft, expect to see a couple top-10 picks helping to grease those trade gears.
Alex Sarr Will Be the No. 1 Pick
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In a lot of years, it's fairly obvious by now which player is going first overall.
This is not one of those years.
As ESPN's Jonathan Givony relayed, folks "don't have a firm grasp" on what the Atlanta Hawks will do with the No. 1 pick. Most—though certainly not all—mocks have them snatching up Alex Sarr, but Givony noted they're also expected "to consider other options...including [Zaccharie] Risacher, Donovan Clingan and trade opportunities."
B/R's Jonathan Wasserman also had Alex Sarr's fellow Frenchman Zaccharie Risacher at No. 1 to the Hawks in his May 21 Mock Draft.
Atlanta's plan to, as general manager Landry Fields put it, "cast a wide net" seems smart at this part of the process in this draft. But all of the Hawks' homework will likely lead them to the same conclusion as all of those mock-drafters:
Sarr should be the pick.
He may have, as Wasserman opined in his Sarr Scouting Profile, "the draft's highest two-way ceiling," which sort of feels like a case-closed conclusion on this debate. If analysts think he'll impact both ends of the floor more than anyone, why bother going a different direction?
Center might not be a glaring position of need for Atlanta on paper, but Clint Capela has been on the trade block for months (or longer), and Onyeka Okongwu is far from a sure thing as a full-time starting 5.
Sarr, meanwhile, could hit the ground sprinting (soaring?) with the Hawks, anchoring their bottom-five defense with paint protection and perimeter switch-ability while perhaps becoming the preferred pick-and-choose partner with whichever playmaker they keep. His ceiling, if fully realized, could one day feature dynamic finishing at the rim, jump-shooting out to the perimeter and an ability to make plays for himself and his teammates on the short roll.
One Pair of College Teammates Will Go Top 5; Two Will Be Taken in the Top 10
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If you're into tracking which schools deliver prospects to the pros, two college teams are poised to gain double-entry into this draft's top 10. And one of them, per our crystal ball, will have two of their players featured in the top five.
Now, the crystal ball can't unfortunately pin down which school will do what, but it does know the UConn Huskies and Kentucky Wildcats are those two teams. The former has produced 7'2" defensive stopper Donovan Clingan and 6'6" combo guard Stephon Castle. The latter, meanwhile, is represented by 6'1" lead guard Rob Dillingham and 6'2", spring-loaded sharpshooter Reed Sheppard.
Clingan should be an early candidate for All-Defensive consideration. Castle oozes glue-guy potential but also possesses a star-level upside if he can harness his shooting touch. Dillingham is slippery off the dribble and a scoring threat from anywhere. Sheppard's three-ball is red-hot to the touch (52.1 percent!), and he's an instinctive defender and distributor.
While teams in the top 10 shouldn't be too focused on needs, you can easily find multiple fits for any of these players. The Hawks, Wizards and Hornets all need a defensive boost and might see Clingan or even Castle as being capable of providing it. Washington and San Antonio both have standing needs for a playmaker of Dillingham's caliber. Sheppard's shooting stroke could play up anywhere, but it would really be a need-filler for the Spurs, Pistons, Blazers and Grizzlies.
Again, though, you could connect enough dots to link these four players to essentially anyone selecting inside of the top 10. Just know that if our hunch is right, two of these teammates will be gone once that top 10 is halfway over.
Ron Holland Will Slip Outside of the Lottery
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It's fitting that Wasserman comped Ron Holland to Cam Whitmore, because the former could be in line for the same kind of draft-night slide that the latter endured last summer.
Holland was once expected to be the first overall pick, but an inefficient, turnover-filled season with the G League Ignite torpedoed that possibility. His physical tools might be impressive, but that's only part of the prospect evaluation. Fully focusing on them and ignoring the facts he shot just 23.7 percent from distance (and an underwhelming 72.8 percent at the line) and averaged more turnovers (3.2) than assists (3.1) is the wrong way to analyze incoming NBA talent.
Teams have to account for the full picture, and Holland's remains fuzzy in a number of areas.
"The No. 1 option role exposed some weaknesses in Holland's game," Wasserman wrote. "Despite scoring more points per game than previous top-three picks Scoot Henderson and Jalen Green did for Ignite, his draft stock has taken a hit."
If teams at the top of this draft see too much risk to invest in Holland, he could be in for a long night. Move further down the lottery, and you'll find much more competitive clubs who may not be willing to withstand his growing pains.
Maybe the Spurs or Trail Blazers see Holland as a candidate for their second of two lottery picks, but if that doesn't happen, he's probably left hoping someone has moved up to get him. Because if not, the prospect initially picked to lead this lottery may not even wind up being a part of it.
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