Nuggets-Timberwolves Game 7 Odds, X-Factors and Final Predictions
The reigning champion Denver Nuggets are on the verge of elimination, thanks to Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves.
After convincingly winning the first two games of this Western Conference Semifinal, the T'Wolves then lost three straight before crushing the Nuggets by 45 points on Thursday.
Now, we're set for a Game 7 between what may be the two best teams in the West, and anyone who tells you they know how it'll go is full of it.
The odds, players and styles that will shape this game, as well as a foolhardy prediction, can be found below.
Odds
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Despite coming off an embarrassing and historic loss (it was the eighth worst single-game postseason deficit the league's ever seen), the Nuggets are entering Sunday's winner-take-all tilt as the favorites.
The Timberwolves are 4.5-point underdogs, and it's really not that difficult to see why.
The Nuggets are 3-1 in Game 7s in which Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray both played. And two of those wins ended series in which Denver trailed 3-1. This duo is no stranger to adversity, and it's already overcome some in this second round.
Jokić and company have now lost control of this series twice (first after losing the first two games of the series and again on Thursday), but they regained it the first time.
The facts are that this series is shifting back to Denver, the Nuggets are the reigning champs and Jokić and Murray typically come out swinging when their backs are against the wall.
Nuggets' X-Factor
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Jamal Murray had a legendary postseason run on the way to the 2023 championship. He averaged 26.1 points, 7.1 assists and 3.0 threes, while shooting 39.6 percent from deep. He got to 40 points once. He got to 35 points four times. And he had a triple-double in the Finals.
But this postseason, in spite of his two dramatic game-winners over the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round, he hasn't been good.
Murray is averaging 19.3 points on 20.2 shots. Among the 488 individual postseasons with at least as many three-point attempts as Murray has taken in this one, Murray's 45.8 true shooting percentage ranks 478th.
Add the borderline disastrous shooting to Murray losing his temper and throwing items onto the court from the bench in Game 2, and this playoff run looks terrible (even with the game-winners).
Of course, Murray has been dealing with a calf injury throughout this series. And on Thursday, he picked up an elbow injury that could contribute to his struggles going forward.
He's not at full strength, and that's a factor.
Injuries or not, Murray absolutely has to be better than he was in Game 6 for Denver to win the series.
This postseason, when he has a 15.0-plus game score ("a rough measure of a player's productivity for a single game"), the Nuggets are 5-0. They're 2-4 in the other six games.
And that number accounts for more than just points. Murray can have a positive impact without taking 18 shots (as he did on Thursday, when he only made four). If he can bother Mike Conley or Nickeil Alexander-Walker and set up his teammates for easy looks around the basket, Denver will look better than it did during the Game 6 drubbing.
Timberwolves' X-Factor
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Turns out, Conley missing Tuesday's game in Denver was a pretty big deal. Achilles soreness kept him out of action, and the Timberwolves, and the Nuggets won by 15 points.
Without Conley on the floor, Edwards had a lot more responsibility to bring the ball up the floor and initiate the offense. He also had one fewer high-end floor spacer to pull defenders away from his drives.
And at this level of competition, minute details like that can make a huge difference.
In this series, when Conley is on the floor, Edwards has a 69.3 true shooting percentage. When he's off, the mark is still good, but it drops to 61.9.
And Conley's steady-handedness is impacting the bottom line, too. Minnesota is plus-44 in this series when Conley is on the floor and minus-16 when he's off. That's the biggest swing of anyone on the Timberwolves.
His 11.4 points, 6.8 assists and 39.1 three-point percentage this postseason have been nice, but Conley's contributions go so far beyond the box score.
And his teammates appreciate it.
All signs are pointing to Conley playing again in Game 7, and his low-mistake, high-efficiency game should make it look a lot different than Game 5.
Biggest X-Factor
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As annoying as it is for some to hear, officiating has absolutely been a factor in this series.
Of course, it'd be foolish to attribute Minnesota's blowout wins entirely to that. Subtly different officiating wouldn't have erased a 45-point deficit, but the more physical games clearly favor the bigger, more athletic Timberwolves.
That's how Games 2 and 6 were called, and Marc Davis was the crew chief for both.
In those two contests, Minnesota averaged 17.0 fouls and won by an average of 35.5 points. In the four games that weren't called by Davis, the Timberwolves averaged 20.3 fouls and lost by an average of 10.8 points.
The difference may not look significant in the form of numbers, but the contrast between watching Game 2 and 3 was stark.
The Wolves were able to establish a high-contact, physical style early in Games 2 and 6. And with that tone set, they went on early runs, pushed the Nuggets to disengage and never allowed them to get back into the contests.
If Sunday's matchup is called a bit tighter (as Games 3, 4 and 5 were), it'll favor the more skilled Nuggets.
One way or the other, though officiating certainly won't be the deciding factor, it will be one.
Superstar Duel
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Jokić has won three of the last four MVPs (and there's a strong argument he should've won four straight). He's in the middle of another absurd postseason, averaging 28.2 points, 12.9 rebounds and 8.8 assists.
Given his production and the fact that he nearly averaged a 30-point triple-double on the way to a championship in 2023, he has one of the most obvious "best player in the world" cases in recent NBA history.
As recently as Game 5 against Minnesota, he added evidence to that argument with a 40-point, 13-assist masterclass.
And yet, 22-year-old Anthony Edwards is on the verge of dethroning Jokić 12 games into his first title defense.
Edwards is averaging 30.2 points, 6.0 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 3.1 threes and 1.7 steals, while shooting 42.5 percent from deep this postseason.
He already vanquished the Kevin Durant-Devin Booker-Bradley Beal supposed "big three" with a sweep in the first round. Following that by eliminating a three-time MVP in his prime would be the stuff of legends.
And Edwards can absolutely do it. In the two road wins to open this round, he had 43 and 27 points, respectively. Denver doesn't really have a good defensive option to send his way. And with Conley available, aggressive double-teams of Edwards will lead to wide-open threes for multiple shooters.
The Wolves superstar has a chance to plant some seeds for next season's MVP conversation, while Jokić has the opportunity to continue his quest for a second straight title and strengthen his position on the all-time ladder.
Regardless of the result, it's safe to expect monster performances from each team's best player.
Final Prediction
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It's not hard to argue that the Timberwolves have the superior roster. Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert and Conley have 10 All-Star appearances between them. The Nuggets' starting five boasts six All-Star appearances, but they're all from Jokić.
Minnesota's bench has Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid, playmaker and multipositional defender Kyle Anderson and three-and-D guard NAW. Denver's second unit has been a plus-minus disaster for years, often relies on two second-year players in Christian Braun and Peyton Watson and had just two total points prior to garbage time in Game 6.
The Timberwolves are the bigger team. They're more athletic. They've had the louder wins in the second round. They've looked hungrier for most of this series. They're the ascendant team.
The Nuggets appear to be merely surviving and have now opened eight of their 11 postseason games (including all five against the Lakers) with a lethargic approach that looks nothing like a defending champion.
Oh, and Murray is now nursing two injuries.
Most signs (other than homecourt advantage and the betting odds) are pointing to Minnesota.
But Denver has championship experience, the altitude and atmosphere of Ball Arena and most importantly, the best player in the world.
The way this series has gone suggests the reigning champions could be done on Sunday, but I picked the Nuggets in seven before the series started. And I'll stick with Jokić for this space.
If the Timberwolves play him straight up, he should put up a massive scoring line. If they send aggressive doubles his way, he'll find open shooters. And those shooters should be better at home (they were just 6-of-31 on open or wide-open three-point attempts in Game 6).
It should be closer than Game 5, but the Nuggets will successfully defend homecourt again.
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