8 Panic Moves MLB Teams Must Avoid After Slow Starts
Look, we've all gone through hard times when it felt like only drastic changes would see us through to the other side.
But while certain MLB teams are going through such moments right now, they need to be careful not to go too far with their course corrections.
With this in mind, let's discuss panic moves that eight slow-starting teams must avoid. These cover trades that should and shouldn't be made, as well as how clubs should be handling established and up-and-coming players.
Let's proceed in ascending order of these teams' records, which means starting with by far the most perplexing slow-starter of the 2024 season.
Houston Astros: Don't Blow It Up
1 of 8
Record: 15-25, 4th in AL West
It's one thing to stumble out of the gate. It's another thing to keep stumbling out of the gate, which is what the Astros are still doing.
Hence why speculation about them as trade-deadline sellers is picking up. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic pondered on May 3 whether the Astros might be to this year's trade deadline what the New York Mets were to the 2023 version.
If so, pending free agents such as Justin Verlander and Alex Bregman could be goners.
Or the Astros could just, you know, stay the course.
There's a lot to not like about the way they've begun this season, but there are also positive signs such as their offense ranking third in the American League in OPS and their three-headed bullpen trio coming around with a 1.88 ERA over the last 14 days.
Also on Houston's side are the schedule and, at least in theory, some outstanding good luck. They have the easiest remaining slate of any AL team. And especially apropos of that note about the bullpen, the club's 2-9 record in one-run games should only get better.
It's still possible to imagine the Astros making the playoffs, and not just as a wild-card team. With neither the Texas Rangers nor the Seattle Mariners capitalizing on Houston's slow start, the AL West title is still in play.
St. Louis Cardinals: Only Consider Trading the Old Guys
2 of 8
Record: 16-24, 5th in NL Central
Contrary to the Astros, this is no time to be holding on to Cardinals stock in hopes that it will pay off.
They also spent most of 2023 in last place, after all, and they've probably overachieved this season. And with Willson Contreras now out with an infuriatingly avoidable broken arm, the Cardinals are set to be without arguably their best hitter for several weeks.
Trade speculation is well-warranted, and not just with regard to closer Ryan Helsley. Veteran starters Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson belong in the conversation as well. And if anyone is willing to pay anything for Paul Goldschmidt or Nolan Arenado, well, them too.
Yet, St. Louis should stop short of completely blowing up its roster, which is basically to say that the young, controllable guys should stick around.
As much as this feels like an old team, the Cardinals have a ton of those. Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn, Iván Herrera, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson are all 27 or younger and controlled through at least 2027.
Factoring in that the Cardinals also have some solid talent in what B/R's Joel Reuter considers the No. 17 farm system in MLB, any rebuild they pursue should be of the quick variety.
Toronto Blue Jays: Don't Rush Ricky Tiedemann
3 of 8
Record: 18-22, 5th in AL East
The Blue Jays are another team that's probably lucky to even be where it is, especially given how punchless the offense has been.
If it isn't already, Toronto should be considering whether Orelvis Martinez is ready to help. Ranked by Reuter as the No. 57 prospect in MLB, the 22-year-old infielder has a .910 OPS for Triple-A Buffalo. He did hurt his knee on a HBP on Friday, but it doesn't seem serious.
However, while he could hypothetically stabilize the wonky No. 5 spot in the Blue Jays' rotation, fellow prospect Ricky Tiedemann shouldn't be in for an imminent promotion.
It's hard not to at least ponder the idea, as MLB.com's Keegan Matheson did in a column on Thursday. A Tiedemann call-up, he wrote, could be "the prospect version of saying that a player getting healthy late in the season is 'just like a trade addition.'"
In this case, though, whether the Jays should promote the 21-year-old at any point in 2024 is fair game for doubt.
Though Tiedemann has enough talent to be the No. 26 prospect in MLB, he's on the injured list again (this time with elbow inflammation) after missing most of 2023 with injuries (that time with shoulder and biceps issues). There's also no ignoring that he had ERAs over 5.00 both at Double-A in 2023 and at Triple-A before he got hurt this year.
San Francisco Giants: Don't Sacrifice Prospects for This Team
4 of 8
Record: 19-23, 4th in NL West
Only the Los Angeles Dodgers and Kansas City Royals spent more money in free agency than the Giants did over the winter, so what's happening now isn't the best look.
And honestly, things should be even worse for the Giants. Per their minus-39 run differential, their record should be more like 17-25.
This is reflective of how this roster is short on strengths and long on weaknesses. Chief among the latter are shortstop and the outfield, which is now set to be without Jung Hoo Lee for a while after he dislocated his shoulder on Sunday.
The trade market could hypothetically be the Giants' salvation, but I don't even want to get into who they could target. And here's why: This team just isn't worth the effort.
Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison and Lee notwithstanding, it is mind-boggling how few long-term building blocks this team—a supposed contender—has to work with. And there aren't a ton more standing by in a farm system ranked by Reuter at No. 19 in MLB.
This isn't to say the Giants should sell, mind you. Their best play is to simply let it ride and hope newcomers like Blake Snell, Matt Chapman and Jorge Soler eventually do what they were brought in to do. If so, a late charge at a wild-card spot could follow.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Don't Try to Hide Corbin Carroll
5 of 8
Record: 19-22, 3rd in NL West
The Diamondbacks can't help tripping every time they seem to be gaining momentum, but at least they have a plus-17 run differential.
Not bad, considering Corbin Carroll still isn't hot. In fact, he was so cold at the outset that the Snakes dropped him down in the batting order. He batted no higher than seventh between April 24 and May 5, though it didn't do him much good as he hit .171 in that span.
Arizona has already reversed course, returning Carroll to the top of the lineup for each of its last five games. To which I say: good.
The reigning NL Rookie of the Year is showing signs of life, after all. The most noticeable one is in the exit velocity department, where he's thus far making a heck of a lot more noise in May than he did in April:
- April: 84.1 mph
- May: 91.1 mph
At work here are adjustments to Carroll's swing, which had previously been geared toward making consistent contact. Whereas that clearly didn't work, what he's doing now clearly is.
It should only be a matter of time before Carroll is the game-changer he was last year. And when that guy arrives, the D-backs won't want him buried at the bottom of their lineup.
New York Mets: Don't Trade Pete Alonso
6 of 8
Record: 19-20,T- 3rd in NL East
It's easy to assume there are plenty of teams that want the Mets to put Pete Alonso on the market.
On the one hand, he leads all hitters with 201 home runs since his debut in 2019. On the other, he's turned into something of an easy out since the start of last season. In 193 games, he's batting only .218 with a .315 on-base percentage.
Between that, his upcoming free agency and his $20.5 million salary, the 29-year-old doesn't exactly have surplus value coming out of his ears. The Athletic's Jim Bowden's pitch of a trade to the Seattle Mariners in which the Mets only get Ty France and Emerson Hancock sounds light, but it could actually be indicative of what Alonso is worth right now.
And if that's the case, the Mets should be in no hurry to make a deal.
Alonso's value can only go higher, after all. And if it does, he can play a key role in rendering the trade chatter altogether obsolete.
The Mets already deserve better than the record they have, and they can look ahead of them and see Kodai Senga's eventual return from a shoulder injury and a weak remaining schedule, to boot. They're almost certainly not winning the NL East, but it seems doubtful that they'll ever be squeezed out of the wild-card race.
Tampa Bay Rays: Don't Sell Low on Stars
7 of 8
Record: 20-21, 4th in AL East
The Rays aren't off to a terrible start, necessarily, but this is the same team that won 29 of its first 36 games in 2023 and warning signs are everywhere.
Most notably, the Rays' minus-32 run differential hints that even this start is unsustainable. And if the losses do begin to come more consistently, the franchise's history suggests cost-cutting maneuvers will be on the table.
When Rosenthal waded into who could go, he landed on lineup stalwarts Randy Arozarena and Yandy Díaz as well as starter Zach Eflin. They account for $27.1 million in salary, about 30 percent of the Rays' total payroll.
At least for the moment, however, none of those guys' trade value is where Tampa Bay would like it to be.
Arozarena and Díaz have a combined .632 OPS, while Eflin has roughly an average ERA at 3.79. A la the Miami Marlins did with Luis Arraez, the Rays would likely have to pay down a good chunk of change in order to get anything substantive for any one of the three.
Besides, the situation in Tampa isn't totally hopeless. If those three guys start playing better and certain injury recoveries go well, the Rays could sneak up on everyone in the latter half of the year.
Seattle Mariners: Don't Give Up on This Lineup
8 of 8
Record: 22-19, 1st in AL West
The Mariners aren't in trouble, but their offense holding them back is getting a little old.
At 3.8 runs per game, they rank seventh from the bottom of MLB in scoring. Strikeouts have been and still are a huge problem. Their hitters are punching out 28.4 percent of the time. No other team is above 26.3 percent.
Frankly, it should have been Seattle that went all-out on an early trade for Arraez. With that ship having sailed, it's basically left looking at buy-low options like Alonso and Jazz Chisholm Jr. Meanwhile, its farm system is loaded with hitters...but no MLB-ready ones. As ranked by Reuter, none of its eight best have advanced past Double-A.
Facing circumstances such as these, would it really be the worst idea if the Mariners simply stuck with what they have?
They can at least bank on Julio Rodríguez, who's no stranger to slow starts at this point. Likewise better than they've shown are Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver and Mitch Haniger, and J.P. Crawford won't be out with a strained oblique forever.
Besides, with the pitching staff they have, it's not like the Mariners need to score a ton of runs. Just a few more would do, and those should come eventually.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
