Knee-Jerk MLB Reactions on the Good, Bad and Ugly of 2024 Season Thus Far
"It's still early."
That's the mantra we all repeat throughout April in Major League Baseball when unexpected and seemingly unsustainable things are transpiring on the diamond.
However, early trends—of both the good and not-good varieties—sometimes turn into yearlong developments, so don't be too hasty to dismiss hot starts or a disappointing first two weeks as simply small sample sizes.
In fact, instead of writing off some of the things we've witnessed through the first dozen or so games of the season, let's go in the opposite direction with some knee-jerk reactions.
Tyler O'Neill for AL MVP? Yes please.
Reid Detmers a Cy Young candidate? You betcha.
Marlins headed for a historically awful season? Sure looks like it.
Knee-jerk reactions are presented in no particular order, save for oscillating between the good and bad/ugly ones.
Good: Pittsburgh's Hot Start Is for Real This Time
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At the end of play last April 29, the Pittsburgh Pirates had the best record in the National League at 20-8. In several of those wins, they looked like an offensive powerhouse, putting up 13 runs or more four times.
Then, they just...collapsed.
After averaging 5.5 runs through those first 28 games, they were held to three runs or fewer in 12 consecutive contests, losing 11 of them. They went 56-78 after that great start, which would have been worst in the NL were it not for the slightly more terrible Rockies.
So, here we go again?
The Pirates are 9-3 and behind just the New York Yankees for best record in the majors. The offense is averaging 5.7 runs per game, which is good enough for the highest scoring average in MLB.
Because of the combination of last year's disintegration and what is now an eight-year streak of finishing at least 13 games back in the NL Central, the natural assumption is that this is just another early flash in the pan, destined to fail in due time.
What if it's not, though?
What if Martín Pérez is going to build on his hot start and repeat the All-Star campaign from 2022? What if 2018 No. 2 overall pick Joey Bart just needed to get out of San Francisco to finally tap into his potential? What if the emerging trio of Ke'Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz are capable of carrying one of the better offenses in the league?
What if...what if they're actually kind of underachieving and this is going to a be a 100-win team once Jack Suwinski starts hitting and 2023 All-Stars Mitch Keller and David Bednar stop struggling on the mound?
There were four teams that suffered at least 100 losses in 2021: 2023 World Series champion Texas, 2023 World Series runner-up Arizona, 2023 AL No. 1 seed Baltimore and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Maybe this is their time to shine.
Bad: Nick Castellanos' Struggles Could Continue
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After homering in his first at-bat of the 2023 NLCS, Philadelphia's Nick Castellanos vanished.
He was the star of the Phillies' NLDS victory over Atlanta, but he went hitless with 11 strikeouts in his final 23 ABs of the seven-game series with the Diamondbacks.
Spring training wasn't much better for the $100 million man. He did have a pair of home runs, but he collected just five hits in 42 at-bats, whiffing 12 more times.
Early returns in the regular season have been even worse. Through 12 games, Castellanos has gone 7-for-43 with zero extra-base hits and 13 strikeouts.
Quite the apples, oranges and lemons comparison between postseason, spring training and regular-season stats, but since that homer in Game 1 against Arizona, the 32-year-old is 12-for-108 (.111 AVG), striking out in nearly one-third of his trips to the plate.
(And goodness knows he isn't providing value above replacement level with his defense in right field.)
What's perhaps most troubling about this slow start is that Castellanos had done his best work early on in the past three seasons, ending each of the previous three Aprils with a batting average of .300 or better. He had at least six extra-base hits 10 games into each of the last three seasons, so to have none after 12 games is troubling.
Good: Tyler O'Neill Is Going to Win AL MVP
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Yeah. Buckle up. We're getting really knee-jerky with it here.
Here's the thing about Tyler O'Neill: When healthy back in 2021, he was doggone good. He won a Gold Glove for his work in left field, hit .286, clubbed 34 home runs, stole 15 bases and finished eighth in the NL MVP vote. It looked like the next big thing in baseball. But over the next two seasons, he battled a litany of injuries, missing nearly as many games (156) as he played in (168).
So far so good on the injury front, though, as O'Neill is back and better than ever with six home runs in his first 11 games.
The 26-year-old always homers on Opening Day, but he doesn't usually stay hot. In fact, this is the first time since 2020 that he had multiple home runs within his team's first 11 games, let alone five of them.
Thus far, they've all been solo shots, but O'Neill entered Wednesday tied with Mike Trout for the MLB lead in home runs and in sole possession of first place in slugging (.906). He's doing this in a new league for a new team that has gotten out to a hotter start than expected.
If both he and the Red Sox continue to thrive, the MVP narrative will just about drive itself.
If O'Neill does have a great year, where things would get really interesting is in the offseason when he reaches free agency for the first time.
Agent Scott Boras had several marquee clients not get the massive paydays expected this past offseason, but perhaps he can shift the narrative with O'Neill coming off an MVP-like campaign.
Ugly: Chicago White Sox May Lose Most Games In Franchise History
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The Chicago White Sox being just plain terrible in 2024 has long been within the realm of possibility.
Ahead of last summer's trade deadline, they exchanged seven MLB players for seven prospects and Trayce Thompson. They proceeded to trade away Aaron Bummer, Gregory Santos and Dylan Cease during the offseason, getting back mostly minor league players and a few big leaguers who Atlanta simply had no use for in 2024.
It has all been a fairly textbook tanking job, flipping expiring contracts for long-term assets and embracing a terrible year or two in hopes of coming out on the other side sooner and in better shape than they would have been by actually attempting to contend right now.
But with the oft-injured Eloy Jiménez, Yoan Moncada and Luis Robert Jr. all landing on the IL within the first weeks of the season, what was already likely to be a rough year could be downright historically futile.
The hope is that Jiménez won't be out too long with an adductor strain, but Robert's hip flexor might keep him out of action until June. Moncada is expected to miss three to six months with an adductor strain.
Offense has already been one heck of a struggle without that dynamic trio, with the White Sox getting shut out in four of their first 10 games of the season with a lineup that leaves a lot to be desired.
The lone saving grace for this team thus far has been Garrett Crochet. Their 2020 first-round pick missed all of 2022 and most of 2023 on the IL, but the Opening Day starter has gone 18 innings with 21 strikeouts and a 2.00 ERA. He already might be more of a legitimate building block than anything Oakland or Colorado have unearthed in their multi-year rebuilds.
However, that left-handed ace might not be enough to save the White Sox from setting a franchise record for losses in a single season. They lost 106 games in 1970 and could be headed for even more this year.
Good: Reid Detmers Has Finally Arrived
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Reid Detmers was the 10th overall pick in the 2020 MLB draft, and it didn't take long for him to make his way into the majors, making just 14 starts in the minors before his MLB debut.
In the 11th start of his career, Detmers tossed a no-hitter.
Since then, though, sustained dominance has been tough to come by for the 24-year-old. For every seven-inning gem over the past two seasons, there seemed to also be one start surrendering seven runs in four innings or fewer.
He quickly became this frustratingly tantalizing, Jekyll and Hyde type of talent who would look like an ace in a start against the mighty Dodgers or Rangers, but with those moments coming as bookends to a month of sub-mediocrity.
Early returns this season, though, suggest Detmers is gearing up to become a legitimate ace.
In the early going this year, though, he has been en fuego, with a combined line of 11 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 19 K against a pair of pretty darn good offenses in Baltimore and Boston. That whiff rate (15.6 K/9) is likely unsustainable, but he does have incredible strikeout stuff.
For what it's worth, Detmers' Angels teammate, Tyler Anderson, has also gotten out to one heck of a great start, tossing seven shutout innings in each of his first two appearances.
If this team is going to pull off the miracle of finally getting to the postseason the year after losing Shohei Ohtani, it starts with those two pitchers.
Bad: José Leclerc Could Lose High-Leverage Role
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Throughout the 2023 campaign, the biggest concern for the Texas Rangers was the bullpen.
It's why they traded for Aroldis Chapman at the end of June, why they added Chris Stratton ahead of the trade deadline, why they turned to closer José Leclerc in 13 of their 17 postseason games, and why their biggest offseason acquisitions were relievers Kirby Yates and David Robertson.
Thus far, those two pickups have been great, allowing just one earned run in 11 combined innings of work.
But the lone bullpen arm they could trust last year has been the furthest thing from reliable in the early going.
Leclerc has made five appearances in 2024, with multiple runners reaching base in each one—six via hit, six via walk and one batter hit by pitch. He has allowed a total of eight runs in 5.0 IP (14.40 ERA).
The 30-year-old did manage one save against the Astros, but he immediately followed it up with a blown save against the lowly A's.
Last year, the margin for error in the AL West was nil. Texas lost the division to Houston on a tiebreaker and finished just two games ahead of Seattle, who missed the postseason altogether.
Now, the reigning World Series champions have a serious ninth-inning dilemma on their hands.
It wouldn't be a surprise if they let Robertson handle the next save situation, but what if Leclerc is just as disappointing in a setup role?
Good: Dodgers Will Win Both MVP and Cy Young
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It hasn't been done in either league since Clayton Kershaw won both NL awards in 2014, but it is plausible—perhaps even likely—that the Los Angeles Dodgers win both NL MVP and NL Cy Young.
On the MVP front, Mookie Betts is the best of several great candidates. He hasn't homered in a few days, but he has five on the season with an outrageous 1.234 OPS. This comes after a 2023 campaign in which he hit a career-best 39 home runs and would have won the second MVP of his career were it not for Ronald Acuña Jr.'s historic run.
Should Betts fade, Shohei Ohtani isn't far behind him. The Dodgers' biggest offseason acquisition started slow amid that whole gambling/thievery scandal involving his former translator, but he has been on fire as of late, reeling off five consecutive multi-hit games. He won't have the pitching stats to bolster his MVP case this year, but it might not matter.
Teoscar Hernández and Will Smith have also been hot, and Freddie Freeman is hitting .333, so there's no shortage of options.
As far as the Cy Young goes, Tyler Glasnow has been impeccable four starts into the Dodgers portion of his career. It sure would be something if he is one of the starting pitchers who actually stays healthy in a season already overrun with Tommy John surgeries, but he went seven scoreless innings with 14 strikeouts on Tuesday in becoming the early leader in the NL Cy Young clubhouse.
And after a rough MLB debut in South Korea, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has gone five scoreless innings in each of his last two starts. He remains one of the top candidates for NL Rookie of the Year, and he could easily find his way into the mix for Cy Young, as well. Though, the last rookie to win a Cy Young was Fernando Valenzuela in 1981.
Ugly: Miami's Regression to the Mean (and Then Some) Is No Fluke
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In 2023, the Miami Marlins were one of the luckiest teams ever, finishing six games above .500 and making the postseason despite a run differential of negative-57.
We kept insisting throughout the second half of the season they would eventually regress to the mean, but they never did.
Until now, it appears, sitting at 1-11 and all alone in the basement of the MLB standings.
They lost 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara to Tommy John surgery near the end of last season, and they then lost 20-year-old sensation Eury Pérez to the same injury before he could even make his 2024 debut.
While the Marlins do still have a somewhat respectable starting rotation even without that pair of aces, going from Alcantara and Pérez to Ryan Weathers and A.J. Puk is a substantial downgrade. Weathers has potential as a one-time No. 7 overall pick, but he has yet to show it in the majors. Puk's transition from closer to starter hasn't been a successful one thus far.
Additionally, losing slugger Jorge Soler (now homering for the Giants) from the lineup this offseason has gone about as poorly as expected. Miami's offense did show up in a big way for their lone win over the Cardinals (10-3), but the Fish immediately turned around and managed just two hits in a shutout loss to the Yankees.
It already feels like they are destined to have the lowest-scoring offense in the NL, if not in the majors altogether.
No rest for the weary, either. Miami's next 13 games are against Atlanta (six), the Cubs (four) and the Giants (three).
In their current state and against that upcoming slate, the Marlins legitimately could make a run at matching Oakland's 5-23 start to last season, or even Cincinnati's 3-22 start to the previous year.
