Predictions for Biggest 2024 NBA Playoff Seeding Battles with 1 Week to Go

With only one week left in the NBA regular season, much has to be settled regarding seeding for the playoffs and play-in.

Here's what we know so far. The Boston Celtics have clinched home-court advantage all the way through the Finals. The Golden State Warriors' recent victory over the Houston Rockets has solidified the top ten teams, setting the stage for the playoffs.

Several different playoff seeding battles still need to be sorted and might go to the very last game of the season. The top seed in the West is a three-way battle; the fourth seed is still in play. Four teams are fighting for the sixth seed to get out of the play-in tournament. That is all in the West.

In the Eastern Conference, three teams could win the sixth seed. The third to fifth seeds are also up for grabs, and there is an outside chance the second seed could change.

Homecourt Advantage in the West

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LOS ANGELES, CA - APRIL 4: Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets shoots the ball during the game against the LA Clippers on April 4, 2024 at Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images)

At the time of this writing, the Denver Nuggets are leading the West, half a game ahead of the Minnesota Timberwolves and 1.5 games ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Wolves' challenge to snag the top seed is daunting. They have the toughest schedule of the three teams, and that includes an all-important contest against the Nuggets on April 10th, which will decide a tiebreaker and might be the game for the one seed.

Do not yet count out the young Thunder for the one seed, though. Even though Minnesota owns the tiebreaker over them, OKC owns the one over Denver. Although, the Thunder do have some challenging games coming against Dallas, Milwaukee and Sacramento.

Then there's the defending champs, who were the top seed last season and are going for it again. Denver has the easiest schedule of the three, with just one game against a playoff team—the Wolves.

Denver could have a problem without Jamal Murray. Still, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has missed games down the stretch with a quad contusion. Karl-Anthony Towns might return before the end of the season, but nothing has been solidified yet.

Prediction: It is hard to go against the Nuggets getting the top seed unless they decide to rest Nikola Jokic the last few games. Expect the Nuggets to get the one seed again, while the Wolves will get the second seed over the Thunder due to the tiebreaker. It might be different if SGA was playing more consistently.

Fight for the West's 4 Seed

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LOS ANGELES, CA - APRIL 5, 2024: LA Clippers guard Russell Westbrook (0) rats after slam dunking over the Utah Jazz in the fourth quarter at Crypto.com Arena on April 5, 2024 in Los Angeles, California.(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

Two months ago, it looked like the LA Clippers were among the best teams in the West, and the Dallas Mavericks were hovering near the play-in tournament.

That has changed since the All-Star break. The Mavericks have gone 14-7 during that stretch, and the Clippers are 12-11. Dallas is eighth in net rating since the All-Star break, and Los Angeles is 18th. Now, the Mavs are two games behind the Clippers for the fourth. It seems destined for both teams to square off in the first round for the third time in five seasons.

Luka Doncic is locked in. Since the All-Star break, he has averaged 33 points, 10.4 assists, and 10.1 rebounds while shooting 47.4 percent from the field and 39.7 percent from three.

Looking at the strength of the schedule, the Clippers have the 11th-toughest schedule, and the Mavs have the 25th. The good news for the Clippers is that five of their last six games are at home, while the Mavs have three on the road and three at home.

Prediction: The Clippers will hold off the Mavericks and stay in the fourth seed. Even though Dallas is just two games behind LA in the standings, the Clippers own the tiebreaker. There is not enough time for Dallas to make the move.

Avoiding the West Play-In Tournament

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PHOENIX, AZ - APRIL 5: Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns drives to the basket during the game against the Minnesota Timberwolves on April 5, 2024 at Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by Kate Frese/NBAE via Getty Images)

The West play-in race has heated up to the point that four teams are playing for the sixth seed. The Phoenix Suns, New Orleans Pelicans, Sacramento Kings, and Los Angeles Lakers are all separated by two games.

Phoenix, Sacramento, and New Orleans all have games against each other. Those games will determine who will be getting out of the play-in tournament. The Pelicans also end the season with the Lakers, which might have huge ramifications on the seeding race.

The Lakers are the furthest team out of the race but also the hottest. They are 15-7 since the All-Star break and have the easiest schedule out of the four. Los Angeles has the thinnest margin of error when climbing entirely out of the play-in tournament. They need the three teams ahead of them to take a few losses and can't lose.

*Dallas is only a game up on Phoenix, but it is two games since they own the tiebreaker between the two teams.

Prediction: This is a tough race to predict. There are too many variables, but the Kings will drop to ninth with injuries to Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter. The Lakers seem poised to get the eighth seed based on how well they are playing. The Suns will drop into the seventh seed; the schedule is too difficult, and they have dug a deep hole. This leaves the Pelicans as the sixth and out of the play-in tournament.

Avoiding Boston

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The Boston Celtics have clinched the top NBA seed, so there is not much to worry about regarding No. 1 out East. After that, though, seeds two through five are all up in the air.

The Milwaukee Bucks looked solid with the second seed until a three-game losing streak to lottery teams, losing five of their last six games. They are now a game-and-a-half up on the Cleveland Cavaliers. A half-game behind the Cavs are the Orlando Magic and the New York Knicks.

Things will get interesting in the last week. The Bucks have two games against the Magic and one against the Knicks. The Cavs have the easiest schedules and do not face any teams they are battling for seeding.

Prediction: Things are lining up nicely for the Cavs if they can finish their West Coast swing with wins in L.A. They will finish the season at home with games against two lottery teams and the Indiana Pacers (more on them in a bit). The Bucks are struggling and have a tough schedule to end the season. The Cavs will finish the season as the second seed. The Bucks will fall to three.

Despite a tough end to the season, the Magic should be able to hold off the Knicks, who are injury-riddled and might not be able to pull together enough wins to get out of the fifth seed.

Avoiding the East Play-In Tournament

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HOUSTON, TX - APRIL 5: Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat dribbles the ball during the game against the Houston Rockets on April 5, 2024 at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by Logan Riely/NBAE via Getty Images)

It is a wild three-team race for the sixth seed in the East. The Indiana Pacers are sitting in the sixth seed but can fall to seventh after a pivotal matchup against the Miami Heat on Sunday, who are a half-game behind them.

The Philadelphia 76ers, a game behind the Pacers, just brought back Joel Embiid for the stretch run. With a win over Miami, they took a pivotal step toward the seventh seed.

The schedule favors them; their next three games and four of their last five are against lottery teams. Getting the reigning MVP back significantly boosts their shot at getting out of the play-in if the other teams flatter.

Prediction: The winner of the Pacers-Heat game on Sunday might be the deciding factor in who gets the sixth seed. The Sixers have an outside chance, but with the Pacers and Heat owning the tiebreakers over them, they seem destined to be the eighth seed.