Top Fantasy Football Winners and Losers, Dynasty Impact from Stefon Diggs NFL Trade
In recent years, trades involving star wide receivers have become almost commonplace in the NFL. Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, A.J. Brown and Keenan Allen are just a few of the high-end wideouts that have been dealt in recent years.
That trend sort of started when the Minnesota Vikings sent Stefon Diggs to the Buffalo Bills in 2020 for a package including a first-round pick. Now Diggs is on the move again.
On Wednesday, the Bills traded the four-time Pro Bowler to the Houston Texans along with two Day 3 picks in exchange for a 2025 second-rounder. That isn't much of a haul for last year's WR9 in PPR points, but that number is a tad misleading.
Diggs had a massive first half of the season last year, catching 70 passes for 834 yards and seven touchdowns over his first nine games. But he all but vanished down the stretch, finishing with only 37 catches for 349 yards and one touchdown over his final eight regular-season appearances. He then had only three catches (on eight targets) for 21 yards in the Bills' divisional-round loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.
And just as he did in the Twin Cities, Diggs appears to have worn out his welcome in western New York.
Diggs' arrival on an already-loaded Houston offense is going to have a major impact for the Texans, who now look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders. It raises major questions in Buffalo, where the Bills' wideout corps is suddenly alarmingly thin. And it sent seismic shockwaves across the fantasy football landscape, particularly for managers in dynasty leagues.
Here's a look at the fantasy fallout from the blockbuster, whether it's players who have seen their value skyrocket or others for whom the trade was not nearly as kind.
Winner: Stefon Diggs
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While the timing of the Diggs trade might have come as a surprise, tea leaves were pointing toward his departure from Buffalo.
The veteran wideout made some not-so-subtle jabs on social media, the latest of which seemed like a shot at quarterback Josh Allen. But the real straw that broke the proverbial camel's back was that Diggs' production just wasn't worth the headaches anymore.
From Week 1 to Week 10 last year, Diggs had more PPR points than every wide receiver not named Tyreek Hill. From Week 11 to Week 17 (the end of most fantasy seasons), Diggs barely cracked the top 50.
Assuming you don't believe that Diggs forgot how to play football in the middle of last season, this trade is actually a win for the 30-year-old's fantasy value. The question is whether the other fantasy managers in your league perceive it that way.
Yes, Diggs is joining a crowded pass-catching corps that includes Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz. But with all due respect to those players, they aren't the talent that a healthy and motivated Diggs is. And Diggs is absolutely going to be motivated to show that he remains one of the NFL's most talented receivers.
If the Diggs manager in your league is unnerved by this move, he's a potential buy-low candidate. If you have him rostered and one of your leaguemates wants him, selling could net a big-time haul for teams not in the 2024 title hunt.
Either way, it's time to gauge how your leaguemates feel about this deal and proceed accordingly.
Loser: Josh Allen
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Before anyone starts having full-blown panic attacks about the future of Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen, take a deep breath. Many fantasy pundits, including Matt Harmon of Yahoo Sports, expect last year's highest-scoring fantasy quarterback to be just fine moving forward.
"The Bills offense will miss Diggs unless the team can acquire a ready-made difference-maker in the draft—not an impossible ask this year," Harmon wrote. "But no one should be worried about Allen's production or output. He's a proven player and can make it work with the room as currently constructed, plus a rookie added to the mix."
However, Diggs isn't the only wideout whom the Bills lost this offseason. Gabe Davis left for the Jacksonville Jaguars in free agency as well. As things stand right now, Buffalo's No. 1 wide receiver is Curtis Samuel or Khalil Shakir, neither of whom would put much fear into opposing defensive coordinators.
The Bills have the 28th overall pick in this year's draft, but there's no guarantee that they'll land someone who's capable of making a significant impact right out of the gate. For every Justin Jefferson, there's a Jalen Reagor.
Allen's scrambling ability and penchant for goal-line rushing scores helps his fantasy floor. But this past season, we saw an elite quarterback (Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs) finish seventh at the position in part because of a lack of receiving talent.
The problem is that you can't sell Allen right now, at least not for a worthwhile return. He isn't a "buy" in dynasty formats, either. Allen managers likely aren't shipping him away for 45 cents on the dollar.
Right now, there isn't much to do but hold and see how the Bills address the wide receiver position between now and the 2024 NFL draft later this month.
Winners: Dalton Kincaid and Curtis Samuel
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Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid didn't exactly tear up the NFL as a rookie. But by first-year tight end standards, he was solid for fantasy managers in 2023, as he finished inside the top 12 at the position in PPR points.
During a recent appearance on the Up & Adams show, Kincaid said that he's still working on building a rapport with Josh Allen.
"I don't know if there was a moment where it necessarily clicked," Kincaid said. "I think it was more spending time with him, getting to know him and creating that friendship. I think that's the biggest thing is having a close friendship with all your teammates. And the more that continues to grow, I feel like the stronger our on-field chemistry will be."
In the wake of the Diggs trade, Kincaid and Allen have to kick that chemistry into high gear. Because as things stand now, Kincaid should be set for the kind of bump in target share that could see him challenge for a top-five finish among tight ends in PPR points.
Given that, his price tag in dynasty leagues just shot up. Teams with depth at the position likely could get a nice return for selling him, although buying Kincaid would mean paying retail price for him.
Wide receiver Curtis Samuel isn't going to threaten those heights, especially since we don't yet know who else the Bills will bring in at the position between now and September. Last year in Washington, Samuel caught 62 passes for 613 yards and four touchdowns, finishing 43rd in PPR points among wide receivers.
Diggs' departure should vault Samuel well into WR3 territory for now, but his fantasy value is exceedingly volatile. While it's up at the moment, one trade or draft pick could knock him right back to the fringes of fantasy relevance.
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Losers: Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz
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Texans general manager Nick Caserio hasn't been shy about pushing his chips into the middle of the table in 2024. While the acquisition of Diggs should make the Texans a more dangerous team, their cadre of pass-catchers is now far more crowded.
The biggest loser of the lot from a fantasy perspective may be Nico Collins, who broke out last season to finish 15th among wideouts in PPR points per game. Collins is headed into the final year of his rookie deal, and as Nate Davis of USA Today noted, his future in Houston is now in real jeopardy given that Diggs is under contract through 2027.
"Entering his walk year, Collins is already fielding questions about a top-of-market extension," Davis wrote. "However, that could become much harder to realize if Diggs cuts into his stats and/or if Houston GM Nick Caserio is unwilling to devote a huge chunk of his salary cap to two wideouts."
Collins isn't the only receiver whose fantasy value may drop with Diggs' arrival. Tank Dell will now likely leave the field in two-wide receiver sets, and while fewer snaps and less blocking could help keep the second-year pro healthy, fewer snaps also means fewer targets. Meanwhile, tight end Dalton Schultz was 10th in PPR points at his position in 2023, but he now looks like the fourth option in Houston's passing attack.
Last year, Stroud attempted 499 passes in 15 games. Collins led the team with 109 targets. Meanwhile, Diggs was targeted 160 times. The last time he had fewer than 150 targets was 2019. And it's no secret that if Diggs doesn't get his targets, he tends to grouse about it.
Selling any of the Houston receivers in dynasty leagues may mean taking a hit on the return. Buying any means taking on more than a little risk.
It's a prime example of a move that both boosts an NFL team's fortunes and serves as a kick in the teeth to fantasy managers.
Winner: C.J. Stroud
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The arrival of Stefon Diggs may not be the best news for the likes of Nico Collins and Tank Dell. But it's going to cause second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud's fantasy stock to soar.
Stroud was already a valuable fantasy asset, especially in dynasty formats. On the way to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors last year, Stroud threw for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns while finishing 11th among all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game.
With Diggs now joining a Texans offense that already added Pro Bowl running back Joe Mixon, CBS Sports' Jamey Eisenberg seems to think that Stroud is in line for a huge sophomore campaign.
"The biggest winner in Houston is Stroud, who should improve in a big way following his standout rookie campaign in 2023," he wrote. "With Diggs, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Schultz and Mixon, the Texans will be impossible to defend. Stroud is now worth drafting as a top-five fantasy quarterback, and the only guys ahead of him will be Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson."
In dynasty formats, fifth among quarterbacks may be closer to Stroud's floor than his ceiling. There's nothing not to like about Stroud at this point. He's a wildly accurate 22-year-old quarterback with an offense as loaded as any in the NFL.
Stroud is the sort of player who can form the foundation of a successful dynasty team for the better part of a decade. Unless you also have one of the other quarterbacks whom Eisenberg listed, the former Ohio State star should be essentially untouchable in trades.
Even then, the price tag should be a knee-buckler.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on Twitter at @IDPSharks.
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