Julius Randle's Potential Injury Return Key to Knicks' Playoff Goals Amid NBA Rumors

A clean bill of health would do wonders for the New York Knicks' greatest ambitions for the upcoming NBA playoffs.

What it wouldn't do, though, is definitively answer some of the biggest questions around this team. Like, for instance, whether it can find enough non-Jalen Brunson offense to get by.

Julius Randle is, on paper at least, best equipped to give the 'Bockers those non-Brunson buckets they need, but the three-time All-Star is sort of a walking question mark himself. Randle typically puts sufficient volume on the stat sheet, but his efficiency can be hit or miss. There's also the small matter of fact that he hasn't suited up since dislocating his shoulder in late January.

He remains without a timetable for his return, though the Knicks are reportedly "optimistic" it will happen "at some point before the playoffs," per The Athletic's Fred Katz. They better hope it does, because it's tough to envision a long postseason run happening without Randle on the floor—and at his best.

Randle Scratches a Big Itch for Secondary Scoring

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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - DECEMBER 18: Julius Randle #30 of the New York Knicks brings the ball up court with Jalen Brunson #11 during a 114-109 win over the Los Angeles Lakers at Crypto.com Arena on December 18, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

The Knicks have a certified star in Brunson, whose down-ballot MVP candidacy is picking up steam.

What they don't have—at least not without a healthy Randle—is a second star to take some defensive heat away from Brunson or punishing teams for not diverting their attention. Among healthy Knicks, sharpshooter Donte DiVincenzo stands second on the scoring list at just 14.9 points per game.

Getting Randle back could change that calculation in a massive way.

Dating back to the 2020-21 season (Randle's second in Gotham), his per-game contributions include 23.3 points, 5.0 assists and 2.2 three-pointers. Only nine other players have matched those numbers, per StatHead Basketball, and they're all household names.

Knicks Are Close to Striking a Championship-Level Two-Way Balance

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DENVER, COLORADO - MARCH 21: Head coach Tom Thibodeau of the New York Knicks watches as his team plays the Denver Nuggets during the third quarter at Ball Arena on March 21, 2024 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau may not like hearing this, but the phrase "defense wins championships" isn't just cliched, it's simply not accurate.

Yes, it helps to have a top-shelf defense to throw at the Association's top point-producers, but what teams need more than anything is balance at both ends. The problem is that, while a marketing whiz could perhaps punch this up, "two-way balance wins championships" just doesn't roll off the tongue as well.

Still, that's what hoops history has typically held as a non-negotiable for title teams. They almost always—though not quite always—need to hold top-10 efficiency ranks on both offense and defense to hoist the Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy.

The Knicks aren't there, but they're close. Their seventh-ranked defense, per NBA.com, checks the box with ease, but their 13th-ranked offense needs a little boost. That's exactly what a healthy Randle could provide, though he'd need to deliver during the postseason in ways he never has before.

Randle's Playoff Resume Is Lacking

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MIAMI, FL - MAY 12: Julius Randle #30 of the New York Knicks handles the ball against Jimmy Butler #22 of the Miami Heat during Game 6 of the 2023 NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Semi-Finals on May 12, 2023 at Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2023 NBAE (Photo by Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images)

Randle shouldn't have an NBA playoff reputation just yet. He hasn't participated in enough postseason runs (15 games total) to fully form one.

That being said, the first two chapters of his playoff story have left a lot to be desired. During those 15 games, he has averaged just 17.1 points on 34.4/28.3/75.6 shooting and 3.7 assists against 3.9 turnovers. Not good.

But also not the production levels the Knicks are used to seeing from their star forward. In 46 games this season, his averages—or the sake of comparison—are 24 points on 47.2/31.1/78.1 shooting with 5.0 assists against 3.5 turnovers. For a second option on a team with as much depth as the Knicks have, those are really strong marks.

Granted, the spotlight gets brighter in the playoffs, the quality of competition ramps up and defensive playbooks get fine-tuned to better exploit weaknesses. All of that said, Randle has the talent to deliver on the big stage. Past performance doesn't necessarily dictate future outcomes. If he gets healthy and figures out how to carry over his regular-season production, the Knicks could be a nightmare matchup for just about anyone.