Teams on Upset Alert in Day 4 of 2024 Men's NCAA Tournament

The opening round of the 2024 men's NCAA tournament was rife with upsets, the biggest of which belonged to No. 14 seed Oakland, which took down No. 3 seed Kentucky on Thursday, followed closely by No. 13 seed Yale over No. 4 seed Auburn on Friday.

Just because the field has been cut more than in half doesn't mean the upsets stop there, and ahead we've highlighted four higher seeds who are on upset alert heading into Sunday's second-round games, with a breakdown of what the higher seed needs to do to win and what the upset-minded team must do to stay alive.

Also included is the moneyline as of Saturday night for each game via DraftKings.

Alabama Crimson Tide (West Region, No. 4 Seed)

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Mark Sears

Opponent: No. 12 Grand Canyon

Moneyline: Alabama (-245)

The Alabama Crimson Tide have been a difficult team to judge on a national level this season.

The metrics love them—they closed out the year No. 15 in KenPom's rankings—but they consistently struggled against quality competition. They finished just 4-10 in Quad 1 games and suffered double-digit losses to Arizona, Tennessee, Auburn, Kentucky and Florida while also losing to Purdue, Creighton and Ohio State in nonconference play.

They cruised to a 13-point victory over No. 13 seed Charleston in their opener on Friday, but their defense allowed 96 points in that game, and the Cougars won the rebounding battle while knocking down 10 three-pointers.

That's not exactly a dominant win.

Now they move on to face a Grand Canyon team that ranked among the nation's best mid-majors this year and just beat No. 5 seed Saint Mary's by nine points despite taking 18 fewer shots. The Lopes consistently attacked the basket and went 28-of-36 from the free-throw line to bridge the gap.

Duke Blue Devils (South Region, No. 4 Seed)

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Kyle Filipowski

Opponent: No. 12 James Madison

Moneyline: Duke (-325)

The Duke Blue Devils have been a Top 15 team throughout the 2023-24 season, and they statistically have one of the best offenses in the country, led by 7-footer Kyle Filipowski, who consistently creates matchup problems while averaging 16.7 points, 8.3 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game.

However, there are some red flags.

The Blue Devils went just 5-4 against teams that made the NCAA tournament, losing both of their matchups against rival North Carolina and falling to Arizona in nonconference play. In fact, the only truly impressive win on their resume is a neutral-site victory over Baylor back in December.

Another telling stat from B/R's Kerry Miller is that the Blue Devils went just 2-7 in games decided by seven or fewer points.

They let Vermont hang around in what was a 42-37 game with 12:24 remaining before they pulled away and eventually won by 17 points. If they leave that door cracked against a good James Madison team, they could be in serious trouble.

Marquette Golden Eagles (South Region, No. 2 Seed)

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Tyler Kolek

Opponent: No. 10 Colorado

Moneyline: Marquette (-170)

The good news: Star point guard Tyler Kolek looked fully healthy on Friday after missing the final three games of the regular season and the Big East tournament with an oblique injury, tallying 18 points, 11 assists and six rebounds.

Kam Jones (28 points, 5-of-10 3PT), Stevie Mitchell (16 points) and David Joplin (13 points, 11 rebounds) also had strong games for Marquette, and they came away with a convincing 87-69 victory over Western Kentucky.

The bad news: The Colorado Buffaloes are rolling.

After a hard-fought victory over Boise State in one of the First Four games on Wednesday, the Buffaloes scored a thrilling 102-100 win over Florida on Friday, shooting a blistering 63.0 percent from the floor while assisting on 27 of their 34 made baskets.

It may be a No. 10 seed, but this Colorado team had six Quad 1 wins, and all of them came in away or neutral-site games.

San Diego State Aztecs (East Region, No. 5 Seed)

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Jaedon LeDee

Opponent: No. 13 Yale

Moneyline: San Diego State (-230)

The San Diego State Aztecs reached the national championship game last season on the strength of a smothering defense and a "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" offensive unit.

This time around, they have a bona fide star in Jaedon LeDee, who went from being the sixth man on last year's team to averaging 21.4 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. He put up 32 points against UAB on Friday, and he has scored at least 20 points in 11 of his last 12 games.

On the flip side, it is a bit concerning that the Aztecs went 3-4 in games where he scored 15 or fewer points, and six of those games came on the road. If he has an off night, that could be the end of the line.

The slow, grind-it-out pace that San Diego State prefers to play will be right in the wheelhouse of a Yale Bulldogs team that actually played slower this year, according to KenPom's adjusted tempo metric.

After watching No. 15 seed Princeton reach the Sweet 16 last year with a similar style of play, it would be unwise to overlook another potential Ivy League Cinderella story this time.