1 MLB Team From Each Division That Will Beat Expectations in 2024
The MLB season is underway after the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego debuted in South Korea. Soon, there will be daily live baseball to consume and discuss.
Consider this one of our final preseason projections, the action in Korea notwithstanding. Here, we look for one team in each division that will beat expectations in 2024.
In doing so, we think beyond the projected favorites to win each division. Some of those teams might beat expectations, too, but they are already front-runners.
These are teams expected to finish either in the middle or toward the bottom of their respective divisions but still have a legitimate chance of beating the odds.
To identify the teams with lower expectations, we rely on a mix of betting odds from DraftKings, FanGraphs projections and PECOTA standings.
AL East: Tampa Bay Rays
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It's been a long offseason since the Rays won 99 regular-season games before getting swept by the eventual World Series champion Texas Rangers.
Star shortstop Wander Franco is facing serious criminal allegations and may never play for the team again, and ace pitcher Tyler Glasnow was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Tampa also sent in the deal outfielder Manuel Margot, who had been with the team since its own World Series run in 2020.
Expectations for the Rays, like most of the AL East teams, vary.
FanGraphs projects them as the second-best team in the division. DraftKings gives them the second-worst odds to win it, and PECOTA projects them right in the middle at No. 3.
It shows you how competitive a division this is expected to be, yet the Rays don't appear to be anyone's popular pick. A lot of the confidence shown in them speaks to the organization's reputation for putting together competitive squads despite all odds. No club is capable of doing more with less than Tampa.
So, just because the names on the roster may not pop for the casual fan, they should still be considered a legitimate contender. They should have one of the better rotations in baseball, even without Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs.
With Zach Eflin as their ace and Aaron Civale at the top of the rotation, Tampa should be in good shape with a well-rounded offense led by Randy Arozarena.
AL Central: Kansas City Royals
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Even in one of the worst MLB divisions, the Kansas City Royals are not considered a threat.
They have the second-worst odds from FanGraphs in the AL Central. They have the second-longest betting odds by DraftKings. PECOTA projects them to win fewer than 71 games, only ahead of the Chicago White Sox.
So, across the board, the Royals are expected to be a cellar-dweller in the division after finishing with just 56 wins. But don't underestimate the young star power on this team.
Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia, Cole Ragans and Brady Singer are candidates to take leaps this season.
Witt, specifically, is already one of the better players in the game. His contract for up to 14 years and $377 million would indicate the expectations are high.
The Royals also made moves to improve their rotation by signing Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha. They added Nick Anderson, Will Smith and Chris Stratton to their bullpen and signed Adam Frazier as a depth piece to go along with the addition of Hunter Renfroe in the outfield.
Kansas City has the ingredients to surprise some people, especially in the weakest division in MLB.
AL West: Los Angeles Angels
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Remember a few years ago when the Los Angeles Angels were a trendy pick to make noise in the AL West?
They were stacked with superstars such as Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Pitching may have been an issue, but these guys were supposed to rake the Angels into contention.
It never happened, and now they are left picking up the pieces after losing Ohtani to the Dodgers in free agency. It was, in part, because they underachieved with the two-way star that they lost him in the first place.
Trying to compete without Ohtani and replacing his production both at the plate and from the mound are daunting tasks.
But the Angels have breakout-season candidates in catcher Logan O'Hoppe, an offensive catcher with power and on-base ability, and shortstop Zach Neto, who had a 1.013 OPS through 42 at-bats in spring training.
Rookie first baseman Nolan Schanuel, their top prospect, has impressive contact skills and is working on his power. The bulk of their offseason additions were used to beef up a bullpen that struggled last season. But the rotation remains rather shallow and is likely a big reason why nobody is taking them seriously.
NL East: Miami Marlins
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The Miami Marlins might have high expectations for themselves, given how last season finished.
Their fellow NL wild-card Arizona Diamondbacks went all the way to the World Series, which would've been borderline unthinkable at the beginning of the season. If Miami is operating with this sort of confidence, it's on more of an island than a beach.
Atlanta and the Philadelphia Phillies are both considered stronger teams, with both again expected to be top teams in baseball.
The New York Mets haven't completely given up on being good. The only team in this division Miami is clearly better than is the Washington Nationals.
Yet the Marlins still have a strong and deep rotation led by Jesús Luzardo. Future ace Eury Perez dealing with a fingernail injury and elbow soreness seems ominous, but hopefully nothing major that would keep him out for more than a handful of starts. Ditto for Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera.
There is also the Tim Anderson reclamation project Miami is working on, which has potential to help alleviate the loss of Jorge Soler's bat.
Oddsmakers don't believe in the Marlins, setting their World Series odds at +8000, but they are putting more resources into scouting and player development that should again make them a tough out at the end of the season.
This may seem like a surprising pick, but who would have guessed a wild-card appearance last season?
NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers
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The Chicago Cubs are the new popular team in the NL Central. They hired away Brewers skipper Craig Counsell and brought back Cody Bellinger to a well-put-together team.
Meanwhile, in addition to Counsell's departure, Milwaukee traded Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles, suggesting a major step back was in play for the Brewers.
Then Milwaukee lost closer Devin Williams to a pair of stress fractures in his back, as the bad news seemingly kept piling on. Look at the roster and you will still see enough to get past the roughly 80 wins projected by FanGraphs and PECOTA. The Brewers did not exactly throw in the towel this offseason.
They signed Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sanchez in free agency. They have baseball's No. 2 prospect in 20-year-old center fielder Jackson Chourio, who is expected to be a superstar. Freddy Peralta seems poised to become the new ace of the staff that features the steady veteran Wade Miley and a top-100 prospect in Robert Gasser.
Willy Adames is likely to have a bounce-back season ahead of free agency, and young talents Sal Frelick and Garrett Mitchell are positioned to improve upon last year and become strong everyday players.
Suddenly, you can see this well-run franchise not experiencing the drastic drop-off so many are expecting.
NL West: San Diego Padres
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The San Diego Padres were most difficult to put on this list because all of the non-Rockies teams in the NL West are interesting.
One just went to the World Series. One just signed another's reigning Cy Young winner. Another has a potential scandal with the language interpreter of the most famous foreign player ever.
The Padres, though, have the longest NL West odds to win the World Series (other than the Colorado Rockies, of course). PECOTA has them winning 82 games, which by their projections would keep San Diego just outside the final wild-card spot.
The Padres finished spring training using their deep farm system to acquire Dylan Cease.
With the former Chicago White Sox ace essentially replacing Blake Snell, it leaves a formidable rotation that also includes Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Michael King.
A lineup with Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim as the key cogs will always be threatening.
Despite constant disappointment, the Padres still have enough talent to write their own story this season even without Juan Soto.
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