Every NHL Team's 2024 Toughest Free Agent Decision
We're not looking to wish away the rest of the regular season or the Stanley Cup Playoffs here, believe me, but we are really interested in what the offseason will hold for teams across the NHL.
The offseason presents many different things to focus on. There's the draft, there are trades to consider and there's free agency as well. It's the last one we're focused on today and not just the unrestricted free agents. The restricted free agents need love (and contracts), too.
But with the NHL's hard salary cap in place and even with it going up a little bit again next season, teams will have some hard choices to keep UFAs or let them walk. For RFAs, it means determining whether to sign long-term contracts or trading them to get a return.
We'll look at every team across the league and analyze the most interesting players whose contracts are up after this season and see how the situation looks. Some teams have it plenty easier. Other teams don't have the same fortune.
We'll break it down by division to make it easier for your perusal so join us while we see which players could make summertime a lot more interesting.
Metropolitan Division
1 of 4
Carolina Hurricanes, F - Jake Guentzel (UFA)
All eyes will be on Guentzel this summer. He's expected to land a big money deal from someone, the question for Carolina is whether or not it'll be from them. If Carolina goes on a deep run with Guentzel leading the way, they'll be hard-pressed to let him get away on July 1. But if it doesn't work out somehow, at least Carolina didn't give up the farm to the Penguins to get him. All eyes will be on the Hurricanes and Guentzel this summer and, no pressure here Jake, but the excitement of July 1 rests on your shoulders.
Columbus Blue Jackets, F - Kirill Marchenko (RFA)
Marchenko has been one of the more exciting players for the Blue Jackets this season. His highlights are thrilling and he's a lot of fun to watch. His points are up this season and although he's in his second NHL season, how Columbus approaches him should be simple. Marchenko seems like an obvious candidate for a bridge contract and how he improves from there will determine whether he'll land a long-term, big-money deal after that.
New Jersey Devils, F - Dawson Mercer (RFA)
The Devils' roster, apart from goaltending, is virtually set into next season but with forward Dawson Mercer they'll need to get a new deal done. His first two NHL seasons were dynamite, but his numbers are down this year, like just about most of the Devils. He had 27 goals a year ago and 17 in his rookie year. But with 17 again so far this year and only 28 points, the goals are at least there. A bridge deal -- otherwise known as a two-year deal -- seems likely, especially after the Devils got long-term deals done with Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes and Timo Meier.
New York Islanders, F - Oliver Wahlstrom (RFA)
It hasn't gone as expected for Wahlstrom on Long Island and by all appearances, it would seem like the best thing for him would be to get a fresh start somewhere else. With 67 points in 192 NHL games, there's not much ground for Wahlstrom to stand on to ask for a bundle, but there is sufficient evidence for the 11th pick in the 2018 draft to want to play with another organization.
New York Rangers, F - Kaapo Kakko (RFA)
This will be a source of discussion for the majority of the offseason. The 2019 No. 2 pick looked like he was breaking out last season, but this year has looked more like the others with 14 points (10 goals) in 47 games. There are reasons enough to come up with why Kakko hasn't exploded yet (Rangers forward depth, injuries, COVID) but the clock must be ticking for the Rangers on him. They haven't been eager to move him and it's easy to see why. This could be his last season in New York if the points don't start coming.
Philadelphia Flyers, F - Bobby Brink (RFA)
You had to strain to find an interesting contract situation for the Flyers, but with RFA-to-be Bobby Brink, it's less about the next contract than it is about the player himself. He's been one of many in Philly who have been in and out of John Tortorella's lineup. Many are eager to see if the juicy numbers Brink posted in college at Denver as well as in the AHL can translate in the NHL. There have been plenty of glimpses that he can do it, but it's more about consistency. Torts is tough on veterans and young guys alike so it's not as if Brink is being overlooked for being young,
Pittsburgh Penguins, F - Jeff Carter (UFA)
This isn't about whether the Penguins will re-sign Carter or not, this is more about how they're going to spend the $3.125 million cap hit that will be freed up when they move on from him (or he retires or comes back for a bargain rate). Pittsburgh won't have a lot of salary room to work with next season unless they swing some deals to free up cap space. That makes Carter's cap hit more valuable in how GM Kyle Dubas decides to spend it.
Washington Capitals, Max Pacioretty (UFA)
Like with the Penguins, what the Caps do with the $2 million cap from Max Pacioretty will be interesting. He's done well enough in limited duty for Washington, but they'll have even less cap space to possibly work with next season. Only catch there is $2 million might not be enough to bring in a difference-maker kind of player for a rapidly aging team. If the Caps make the playoffs, maybe keeping Pacioretty will appeal to them even more.
Atlantic Division
2 of 4
Boston Bruins, G - Jeremy Swayman (RFA)
The Bruins are going to re-sign Swayman and they're very likely going to give him a juicy deal in the process. And while that deal will be fascinating to see how it shapes up, the aftereffects of it will also bear watching. A big extension for Swayman likely means Linus Ullmark being traded and Brandon Bussi becoming the next heir-apparent backup. Boston's offseason will be dramatic with Swayman needing an extension and Jake DeBrusk and Matt Grzelcyk becoming unrestricted free agents.
Buffalo Sabres, G - Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (RFA)
The Sabres avoided one potentially expensive extension to Casey Mittelstadt by dealing him to Colorado, but the play of Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen this season and his impending RFA status raises an interesting question about what kind of contract he gets. He's finally emerged this season as the Sabres' No. 1 goalie, but they've also got top prospect Devon Levi on the rise. Goaltending is such a finicky position that they've got to mind all sides and be ready for anything. But with Luukkonen playing the way he has this season he might be a guy they want to take care of before the price grows too high.
Detroit Red Wings, F - Patrick Kane (UFA)
Kane's performance in Detroit has been something else to watch. His return from hip surgery and how he's looked a lot like his old self offensively makes him someone to watch closely this summer. If Detroit misses the playoffs, will Kane want to stay there and maybe go through that fight again or will he look for a more certain situation to join? He seems happy with the Red Wings so there's no reason to think he'd want to go elsewhere. But with age being an issue and the desire to win another Stanley Cup being high, he won't want to miss out on the playoffs anymore.
Florida Panthers, F - Sam Reinhart (UFA)
You'd have to think the Panthers will re-sign this season's most stunning 50-goal scorer in Sam Reinhart, but Florida isn't exactly swimming in cap space and they've got a boatload of players that could become unrestricted free agents on July 1 including defenseman Brandon Montour and forward Nick Cousins. Reinhart has been a big-time point producer, especially with Florida, and he'll command a monster price. If Florida, for some reason, doesn't want to pay him, there'll be a line of teams out the door eager to do so. It's hard to see these two not figuring it out, but strange things can happen when it comes to talking about big-time money.
Montréal Canadiens, D - Arber Xhekaj (RFA)
The Canadiens don't have a lot of things to sort out this offseason and if there's something that is even a little bit interesting it's that their big, physical, hard-shooting defenseman Arber Xhekaj is due for a new deal. He's beloved by the fans, but it would seem likely he'll see a bridge deal this summer to continue patrolling the Habs' blue line.
Ottawa Senators, F - Shane Pinto (RFA)
Pinto was supposed to sign a contract last summer with a healthy raise, but the Senators' cap issues got in the way of doing that. Then Pinto was suspended for half the season and suddenly he lost the chance to play games and the opportunity to cash in. He's got 19 points in 25 games this season, however, and small sample size or not, that's proof that he can still produce well. The difference this time, however, is that Steve Staios is the GM and how he views the situation likely differs greatly from former GM Pierre Dorion.
Tampa Bay Lightning, F - Steven Stamkos (UFA)
The fact that Steven Stamkos, the Lightning team captain and all-time beacon of hope and championships, might be a free agent this summer one more time is wild. Yes, Tampa Bay is forever dealing with a cap crunch, and yes, things were weird with the team's previous captain Martin St. Louis at the end of his time there, but they can't let Stamkos walk elsewhere...can they? After all, they've got to re-sign him so we're spared from having to hear about how Stamkos is definitely going to sign with Toronto for real this time unlike years ago when he was supposed to do that then, too.
Toronto Maple Leafs, G - Ilya Samsonov (UFA)
Speaking of the Leafs, their summer got a lot less interesting now that they signed William Nylander to an extension. They do have some UFAs to consider, however. Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi and TJ Brodie stand out, but it's goalie Ilya Samsonov who stands out. The Leafs love Joseph Woll in goal, but he's still relatively young and Samsonov has played well for Toronto. But does he view the opportunities that could be available elsewhere this summer to provide a better opportunity or will the Leafs try to make sure their net is insured with him in it?
Central Division
3 of 4
Arizona Coyotes, D - Sean Durzi (RFA)
The Coyotes have a host of RFAs to get re-signed and a lot of cap space to work with to do it, as usual. The name that stands out most is Sean Durzi on the blue line. He's shown that going from the Kings to Arizona he can produce well and can lead the way on defense as a prime puck carrier and distributor. He's been a great addition to the Coyotes and how they decide to reward him for his performance will be very interesting to see, mostly because it's the Coyotes and anything they do with money always merits watching.
Chicago Blackhawks, F - Lukas Reichel (RFA)
Chicago has no cap issues to contend with (unless you consider reaching the salary floor an issue) and they don't have any UFA-to-be players to really sweat out at all. So, we'll instead focus on one of their key prospects, Lukas Reichel, who is an RFA this summer. Reichel has struggled terribly on a terrible Chicago team. It's somewhat to be expected, but he will re-sign with Chicago on a simple bridge deal. How he performs after that as he grows up alongside Connor Bedard is worth watching.
Colorado Avalanche, F - Casey Mittelstadt (RFA)
The Avalanche needed an improvement at No. 2 center and got exactly what they needed in Casey Mittelstadt. The catch in doing so, apart from sending Bowen Byram to Buffalo, was that they have to sign Mittelstadt to an extension. He's two years from unrestricted free agency and is an RFA this summer. That means the clock is ticking to get a multi-year or long-term extension done with him. It'll be very interesting to see what kind of contract they come up with because they've doled out a lot of money and years already to too many players. UFA-to-be Sean Walker is also an interesting subject, but Mittelstadt is, by far, the more important player to figure out.
Dallas Stars, D - Chris Tanev (UFA)
The Stars don't have a lot of holes to deal with and after they acquired Chris Tanev from Calgary, it's worth watching to see if they move to retain him. It's entirely possible he was a rental acquisition but keeping a player like him beyond this season makes a lot of sense. Tanev is 34 years old so we're not talking like it would be a long-term contract to keep him, but with guys like Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley on the blue line, a vet like Tanev makes sense to keep around.
Minnesota Wild, G - Marc-André Fleury (UFA)
Is Flower going to retire? That's the main question here because if he does, that'll make us sad, and it'll hand the starting goalie job in Minnesota to Filip Gustavsson full-time. If he wants to play one more year, though, that'll make us all smile and be happy that he does. It'll also make us wonder if he'll do it in Minnesota or elsewhere. If he leaves the Wild in the summer, that frees up $3.5 million against the cap for them to make use of. The Wild have one more year of eating a major dead cap hit from buying out Zach Parise and Ryan Suter ($14.7 million). More cap room would mean fewer smiles.
Nashville Predators, D - Alexandre Carrier (UFA)
It feels weird to write about this one because it feels like this is a deal that could get done well before this summer. Carrier went from being hotly pursued at the trade deadline to being a vital player for the Predators as they push for the postseason. He's become a strong defender and this season he's been outstanding. The Predators aren't sweating cap space and Carrier will get a raise on his $2.5 million cap hit, but not a bank-breaking jump.
St. Louis Blues, F - Kasperi Kapanen (UFA)
The Blues don't have much, if any, contract excitement waiting for them this summer, but Kasperi Kapanen's expiring deal has a $3.2 million cap hit that would be valuable for the substantially spending Blues. They've locked up all of their core players to long-term extensions and that spending has them squared away for some time now. That's what makes Kapanen's deal coming to an end an important one. He's had 19 points in 60 games this season and if they do bring him back it'll be at a lower cost point. Otherwise, that money is going to be used for other players.
Winnipeg Jets, F - Tyler Toffoli (UFA)
After the Jets got their business taken care of last summer with Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele, they're not exactly sweating anything out this summer. But if they get on a run in the playoffs and Tyler Toffoli is a big part of that, then they may have a conversation about bringing him back for a few more years. The same could be said of Sean Monahan as well, but Toffoli has a Cup-winning history and a more robust track record of success. If Winnipeg wants to keep up with Dallas and Colorado, they might have to re-sign him.
Pacific Division
4 of 4
Anaheim Ducks, F - Jakob Silfverberg (UFA)
Anaheim isn't looking at any salary cap issues and they don't have any RFAs in need of monster extensions just yet and after they dealt Adam Henrique to Edmonton, they're left with one UFA of note to retain in Silfverberg. He's coming off a deal that paid him $5.25 million a year on the cap, but his numbers have come down in recent years and his role is a bit different than it was. The Ducks need veterans to provide guidance and Silfverberg and Cam Fowler are the longest-tenured Ducks. Unless he's looking to go elsewhere to move away from Anaheim's rebuild or the Ducks are looking for someone different, whether he stays or goes works either way.
Calgary Flames, G - Dustin Wolf (RFA)
Calgary moved out most of their UFAs-to-be in trades throughout the season so that took care of a lot of the potential drama for them. They do have a curious RFA in goalie Dustin Wolf. It's curious because he's been the heir apparent to the starter's role for a couple of years and at some point he has to be part of the Flames for good, right? But with Jacob Markstrom and Dan Vladar locked in, it's been hard. Of course, Markstrom was a key figure in trade rumors at the deadline and the relationship between him and the team is icy now. Wolf can't exactly command big money or years, but we might get an idea for how Calgary values him based on what he signs for this summer.
Edmonton Oilers, D - Philip Broberg (RFA)
Edmonton has a pile of UFA-to-be role players on their roster, and they'll make summer interesting if the Oilers go deep into the postseason or win the Cup. But we're picking Broberg here because, honestly, what gives here? He's still highly touted by the team but his ELC is expiring and he's played 79 NHL games in his first three years. That lack of play will keep his price down for the cap-strapped Oilers but it sets the table for him to eventually be a full-time player in the NHL...right? It's about time for that to happen.
Los Angeles Kings, D, Matt Roy (UFA)
We were going to highlight Quinton Byfield's upcoming RFA situation or how all of their goalies are set to be free agents, but it's rare to get a fascinating UFA to discuss these days and defenseman Matt Roy qualifies. He doesn't put up big offensive numbers but he's a solid puck possession player and a very good defender on his own merits. There will be a lot of interested teams looking to sign Roy if the Kings don't find a way to re-sign him. But with younger guys like Brandt Clarke and Jordan Spence itchy for more ice time and opportunity, the Kings might want to see what they've got while they're still relatively inexpensive.
San Jose Sharks, F - Alexander Barabanov (UFA)
With the Sharks in the throes of a rebuild that's evoking more sadness than hope these days, the number of UFAs they've got are all likely eager to find more successful teams to play for. One of them, Alexander Barabanov, wanted to land with a playoff team at the deadline if the Sharks found a deal for him. They didn't and he's still with San Jose along with Kevin Labanc and Mike Hoffman. The Sharks won't have any cap worries and seeing guys like that go elsewhere won't help nor hurt them next season and beyond. It's a sad kind of purgatory for the Sharks, but if it turns into a season that gets them Macklin Celebrini, they'll be OK with it.
Seattle Kraken, F - Matty Beniers (RFA)
Beniers is the Kraken's first homegrown star player and now that he's exiting his entry-level contract, we'll get to find out how GM Ron Francis wants to handle his next contract. It would seem like a situation where Beniers is locked up long-term for sizable money. But there will be a question of whether or not to bridge him to help push the monster contract down the road a little bit while Seattle still builds up their system and NHL roster. We'd say they would maybe follow Vegas in how they handled things in that position, but Vegas hasn't even been in this situation themselves with their own draft picks.
Vancouver Canucks, F - Elias Lindholm (UFA)
The Canucks have a few players headed to free agency, but the most interesting one is Lindholm who they acquired from Calgary midway through the season. He's an outstanding player but he's been a bit more muted in Vancouver than he was with the Flames. Vancouver has a lot of blueliners in need of new contracts, but Lindholm is the one forward who stands out and whether they can extend him or not will be fascinating to see play out. He's had seven points in 19 games with Vancouver after he had 32 in 49 in Calgary which earned him an All-Star nod. As a solid two-way forward, you can live with a slight dip in points if the defense is stellar. But any drop in point production heading into free agency will make everyone beware.
Vegas Golden Knights, F - Jonathan Marchessault (UFA)
If we've learned anything about Vegas, it's that you can never doubt them. We've also learned that if you think they can't do something because of salary-cap concerns or roster crunches, they take that as a challenge to prove you wrong. Marchessault is having a brilliant season and a blindingly good second half of the season as he's piled up goals like mad. They've needed him to do that, too, so they can maintain their hold on a playoff position while most of the rest of the roster battles injury and struggles alike. He's got a career-high 37 goals and counting and for anyone heading into free agency with that kind of output, that means the cost goes up with the goal total. He's been a Golden Knight since their inception and won the Conn Smythe a year ago. They'll probably keep him, but then the question is who they'll sacrifice to make it so.
Salary information is provided by CapFriendly.com
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