Ranking the Most Unpredictable Teams Heading into 2024 NFL Free Agency
Ladies and gentlemen, buckle your seatbelts.
In what is annually a roller coaster of additions, subtractions and roster-altering transactions that assist in painting the picture for an organization's success, free agency has arrived.
While the window for teams to officially announce additions won't occur until 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday afternoon, teams can "legally" begin negotiating and agreeing to deals with players on March 11.
While each decision will be criticized and analyzed in the months leading up to September for each club, a list of teams enter the open signing window where, if there's anything to expect, it's the unexpected.
Whether it's a roster in need of a superstar to open a Super Bowl window, a team with loads of cap space to truly shake up the landscape of the signing period or a veteran-laden roster looking for youth-infused pieces to jigsaw a roster, the following is a list of teams – in order of unpredictabliity – that enter free agency with a varying blueprint towards their potential plan of attack.
5. Chicago Bears
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Chicago enters the spring with a seemingly never-ending laundry list of objectives to hit on, headlined by the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
However, how the Bears approach free agency will paint a clear picture of how GM Ryan Poles and HC Matt Eberflus plan to build their roster, presumptively, around QB Caleb Williams.
With roughly $62.7M in cap room to work with, the Bears should be players for a long list of impactful veterans. Holes on either side of the ball remain evident, but bolstering the defensive front, or adding a veteran center to make things that much easier on a young signal-caller could remain atop of Poles' priorities list.
Chicago improved towards the back end of 2023 winning four of its final six games, but simply remaining competitive this fall most likely won't sway ownership in keeping Poles and Eberflus around for the long term.
Adding immediate contributors on either side of the ball remains paramount for Chicago with a sparkling new talent expected to lead the charge under center.
4. Houston Texans
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What a year it was in Houston. For HC DeMeco Ryans, however, he hopes his success in 2023 is just an appetizer for what's to come.
On offense, it's safe to say the Texans hit on quarterback C.J. Stroud. Now, it's one season, but it was a simply historic one from the No. 2 overall pick placing even loftier expectations on his shoulders entering his sophomore campaign.
While the offensive side of the ball remains mostly intact for Houston outside of the running back spot, six starters on the opposite side of the ball are expected to enter the open market.
There's zero shortage of money for GM Nick Caserio to use at his disposal ($62.9M in projected cap space), but how Caserio prioritizes keeping his own, or searching elsewhere, could paint a clear picture towards how Houston's defense meshes early this fall.
Money presents contractual flexibility, but there isn't a GM in football that can sit comfortably with more than half his starting defense from the prior year on the verge of exiting.
3. Buffalo Bills
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The Bills remain cap-strapped, but the release of six veterans has raised eyes around the National Football League.
In what will be a crucial free agency period for GM Brandon Beane, clearing roughly $36.1M in cap by releasing the likes of All-Pros in Jordan Poyer and Tre'Davious White –among others– the subtractions have set the stage for Beane to get creative in his approach with expectations of lifting a Lombardi Trophy each and every season.
Bottom line remains however that Buffalo has to adjust their roster building approach. While Bills faithful near and far would accredit the Bills' lack of playoff success simply due to the buzzsaw that is Mahomes, Buffalo needs more firepower on either side of the football.
Rounding out the Bills roster with high value veterans or a young athlete in need of a new atmosphere will remain a pivotal aspect of the spring Beane must execute as the 2024 campaign nears.
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2. Washington Commanders
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2024 is the start of what hopes to be a new era of football in the nation's capital.
New ownership, new GM, new head coach, new offensive coordi – you get the point.
While the Commanders enter the spring with nearly the same holes they had this time last year, newly minted GM Adam Peters has been entrusted in righting the ship back towards relevancy in the NFC East.
A franchise with as deep an arsenal from a cap space and draft capital (six picks in first 110 selections) perspective in football, Washington enters the spring with a variety of avenues to explore should Peters seem fit.
Gone are the days of handing blank checks to the likes of Albert Haynesworth, but don't expect Washington to sit quietly if a headlining name fits what HC Dan Quinn wants to do on either side of the ball.
A roster with cornerstones present in wideouts Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and defensive stalwarts Jon Allen and Daron Payne, the foundation is exciting for Washington who will be selecting at No. 2 overall for the second time in the last five drafts.
1. Philadelphia Eagles
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If you know what to expect from the Philadelphia Eagles moving into this fall, let alone this spring, you may have stumbled on Gray's Sports Almanac from the all-time classic Back to the Future flick.
A roster that failed to power through adversity in 2023, GM Howie Roseman enters one of his most important offseason's in Philadelphia.
Following a 10-1 start to the campaign, the Eagles lost five of it's last six in the regular season, culminating in an ugly 32-9 drubbing at the hands of the Buccaneers to conclude the year.
With edge rusher Josh Sweat already linked in trade talks, anything should remain on the table for an organization whose Super Bowl window continues to close ever so slightly.
While the core of skill players remain in tact on offense, the retirement of Jason Kelce, wear and tear on the body of tackle Lane Johnson (soon to be 34 years old) and lack of production from corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry in 2023 –along with the potential departure of Sweat– could force Roseman to get creative in adding impact playmakers when free agency officially kicks off.
The Eagles are projected to have upwards of $43M in cap space (10th most in the NFL).
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