6 Biggest NBA Storylines with 6 Weeks Left In the Regular Season
The 2023-24 NBA season is down to its final six weeks. Have you put together your stretch-run watch guide yet?
No worries if you haven't, as that happens to be the very reason we're around.
From award races to fights for prime playoff positioning, here are the six biggest storylines—subjectively ranked by our perception of their leaguewide significance—to track as this marathon enters its final turn.
6. Wemby Watch
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Ever since Victor Wembanyama first surfaced on the NBA radar, his unique blend of size, skill and fluidity threatened to break the game of basketball. However, folks perhaps weren't prepared for him to be a transcendent talent right from the start.
That might sound hyperbolic for someone who's averaging fewer than 30 minutes on a San Antonio Spurs team losing 80 percent of its games, but the numbers back it up. Despite the lack of talent around him, he's already sitting on the 12th-best player efficiency rating ever posted by a rookie rotation player. More impressively, he's on course to become just the seventh player—regardless of experience—to average 20 points, 10 rebounds, three blocks and three assists per game.
He's already producing statistical oddities and first-of-their-kind achievements, even though the Spurs continue to carefully monitor his minutes and try not to throw too much at him too soon. When they have let him spread his pterodactyl wings, the results have been jaw-dropping.
"He doesn't have a ceiling," LeBron James told reporters. "He can do whatever he wants to do in his career."
All arrows point toward this being the dawn of the NBA's next superstar. And the lottery-bound Spurs can use the entirety of their stretch run to focus on Wembanyama's development. He already seemed to tier-up during the month of February (when he averaged 21.3 points on 47.4/41.3/83.1 shooting with 10.7 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 3.9 blocks per game), and he could keep climbing the ladder over the final six weeks.
5. Can Joel Embiid Make It Back in Time to Matter?
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Give the Philadelphia 76ers a healthy Joel Embiid, and they are inner-circle championship contenders. With him, the Sixers have posted a .765 winning percentage and a plus-10.1 net rating. Both would be top-two marks across the Association.
Unfortunately, the reigning MVP has been sidelined since late January because of a meniscus injury. While it's possible he could make it back at some point this season, it's unclear when—or even if—that will happen.
"That's the plan," Embiid said Thursday of returning this season. "Obviously, everything has to go right as far as getting healthy ... but that's the plan. There's really no timeline. You can never tell how the body reacts, especially once you start ramping up. It all depends on how it feels."
If Embiid returns soon enough to be close to his normal self come playoff time, Philly could still be a team to watch in the title race. Between Tyrese Maxey's ascension, Buddy Hield's arrival at the trade deadline and the overall depth of this roster, the Sixers could have what it takes to compete for the crown.
All of things hinges on having a healthy Embiid, though. Because without the big fella, Philly has played like a lottery-bound bottom-feeder.
The Sixers were just 7-17 without their superstar center heading into Friday's game against the Charlotte Hornets, and their net efficiency plummets by 11.1 points per 100 possessions when he isn't on the floor.
4. Will the Lakers or Warriors Offer Any Hints of Championship Contention?
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Some will scoff at the idea that the ninth- and 10th-seeded teams in the Western Conference can drive the fourth-most important plot line of the stretch run. That's fine. If all we knew about the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors was what they'd done this season, then the attention would not be warranted.
We obviously know more than that, though.
We know, for instance, that in the first four seasons the Lakers have had LeBron James and Anthony Davis together, they've twice reached the Western Conference Finals and once won a championship. We also know the Warriors have amassed four titles since forming a nucleus around Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and head coach Steve Kerr.
That history may not matter to skeptics, but it shows that these teams—and especially the stars leading them—can deliver on the biggest stages and under the brightest lights. These clubs also have an increased urgency to capitalize on whatever remains of their stars' primes, so maybe they have more tricks up their sleeve than they've shown to this point.
Their upsides are deniable, but consistency is the puzzle they've struggled to solve. However, each might be in the process of figuring things out. Both had top-three records in the month of February—the Warriors second at 11-3, the Lakers tied for third at 9-3—suggesting they just might be peaking at the perfect time.
Flashing this form over a couple of weeks is encouraging, but sustaining that success over multiple months is quite another challenge. Still, it's what both teams must do to deliver on their long-shot hopes for contention.
3. Just How Open Is the MVP Race?
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In many NBA seasons, an MVP winner might effectively be crowned already at this point on the calendar. So, the fact there isn't an obvious choice towering above the rest suggests this race is more open than most.
Is it wide open, though? That's what this stretch run will decide.
There isn't a shortage of candidates. Nikola Jokić's numbers are as bananas as ever. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the engine of a young Oklahoma City Thunder team that has a real chance to win the West. Jayson Tatum is clearly the best player on clearly the best team. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka Dončić routinely post some of the wildest stat lines of anyone. Donovan Mitchell, Kawhi Leonard and Domantas Sabonis are making noise further down the ballot.
"There's a lot of guys," Los Angeles Clippers star Paul George told reporters. "You talk about Shai, you talk about Luka, you talk about Jokić. There's a lot of guys out West and even out East, there's a lot of guys doing a hell of a job representing their team."
The question is whether anyone is doing enough to deny Jokić the third MVP honor of his career. He hasn't secured it yet, but there's a reason why Basketball Reference's MVP tracker gives him a 47.6 percent chance of winning it and no one else even an 18 percent chance.
Jokić offers the best blend of statistical dominance, on-court importance and team success. His competitors have six weeks left to try changing that.
2. Will a Celtics Challenger Emerge in the East?
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The Boston Celtics are arguably the best team in the NBA and obviously the best team in the Eastern Conference. They lead the league in winning percentage (.793) and net rating (plus-10.6), and neither category is close.
So, we can all just Sharpie them into the Finals, right? It's never that simple, but it is tricky to tell which teams will push them and how hard.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have climbed to second in the East by win rate and net efficiency, but they haven't quite solved the spacing issues with the Evan Mobley-Jarrett Allen tandem. The Milwaukee Bucks are close behind, but they're just .500 since Doc Rivers took over, they've yet to crack the top half of the league in defensive rating, and Damian Lillard doesn't seem (or sound) completely comfortable in his new digs.
The full-strength New York Knicks are deep, but they've been roughed-up by the injury bug, and it's unclear if they have enough top-shelf talent to contend. The Sixers can't muster a championship dream without Joel Embiid. The Miami Heat's track record makes them impossible to ignore, but if they have a championship form in them, they've yet to flash it.
Will any team from this pack separate down the stretch and emerge as a real challenger to the Celtics? Number-crunchers aren't convinced.
Basketball Reference's projection system gives Boston a 70.7 percent chance to win the conference and a 52.2 percent chance to win it all. No one else in the East is above 9.8 or 3.8 percent, respectively.
1. Who Wins the West?
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It's the season of scoreboard-watching, and no one knows that better than the teams residing atop the Western Conference.
The Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets were separated by only 1.5 games heading into Friday. The Los Angeles Clippers were right alongside them before a recent 2-4 skid dropped them four games back of the top-seeded Timberwolves. Still, that's the entire gap between between the Nos. 1 and 4 seeds.
For context, those same four seeds are separated by 12 games in the East. The 10th-seeded Warriors aren't even that far away from the Timberwolves (10.5 games).
"The Western Conference has just been a bear for as long as I can remember, and this year is no exception," Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault told reporters. "Great teams up and down."
The West is almost always great, but the new teams at the top give the standings a different vibe. The last time the Thunder won the conference, they were following the lead of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook (2012-13). The Timberwolves last snagged the top seed in 2003-04, Kevin Garnett's MVP campaign.
You'd think these teams would want any advantage they could get. The play-in tournament will feature some really good and really scary clubs, and it's not like the competition will get any lighter as you climb up the standings.
A high seed may guarantee nothing beyond home-court advantage, but the Thunder, Timberwolves and Nuggets all know how hugely helpful that can be. They've gone a combined 70-17 so far inside their own arenas.
This is almost certainly heading toward a photo finish, and the result of this race could have a direct effect on how this postseason plays out.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com and current through games played on Thursday.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on X, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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