MLB Contract Projections for Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Top Free Agents
The Cody Bellinger signing did one thing above all, and that's reunite a would-be World Series contender with one of its best players from the 2023 season.
If it did anything else, it revealed that now is the time to rethink expectations for the best free agents still available.
Whereas Bellinger and his agent, Scott Boras, had reportedly been seeking upward of $250 million, they ultimately settled for a three-year deal that guarantees only $80 million. There are opt-outs that could prove to be gateways to greater riches, but the message for now is that players who are still looking for work need to lower their asking prices.
Which isn't terribly surprising. Even Boras has struggled to find good deals amid an offseason market defined by an unusual degree of uncertainty. Meanwhile, Opening Day is just four weeks away.
So after first touching on some honorable mentions, let's do our best to read the room and come up with updated contract projections for the eight best free agents remaining from the original top 100 Joel Reuter assembled for B/R.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 9
1B/DH Brandon Belt
Projection: 1 year, $6 million
After posting an .858 OPS and 19 home runs, Belt might have been expecting a raise on the $9.5 million he made last year. But especially given how little buzz there's been on him all offseason, it's hard to imagine him dramatically outdoing what Carlos Santana got recently.
1B C.J. Cron
Projection: Minor league deal
Cron was an All-Star two years ago, but he's only ever been a power-first guy, and he's coming off a down year marked by a .729 OPS and 12 homers. If Garrett Cooper could only get an MiLB deal, that could be what awaits Cron as well.
OF Adam Duvall
Projection: 1 year, $7 million
The two-year, $13 million deal that Hunter Renfroe signed in December seemed like a good target for Duvall after he put up an .834 OPS and 21 homers in 2023. But now, simply replicating the same deal he signed last winter might be the best he can do.
OF Eddie Rosario
Projection: Minor league deal
It was as recently as 2021 that Rosario had a turn as a playoff legend. But these days, he's strictly a left fielder who doesn't offer much in the way of offense or defense. Any shot he gets will likely be one in which he'd have to earn a major league roster spot.
1B/DH Joey Votto
Projection: 1 year, $2.5 million
If this deal sounds familiar, that's because it's the same one that brought Albert Pujols back to the St. Louis Cardinals two years ago. Votto is at a similar stage of his career, though the odds of him reuniting with the Cincinnati Reds would seem to be much lower.
RHP Michael Lorenzen
2 of 9
Age: 32
2023 Stats: 29 G, 25 GS, 153.0 IP, 138 H (20 HR), 111 K, 47 BB, 4.18 ERA
Original Rank: 39
Whether it was MLB Trade Rumors or FanGraphs that was doing the projecting, the two-year, $20 million range seemed like a good bet for Michael Lorenzen when the market opened.
That's probably no longer the case, but that's not the same as saying that all hope is lost for the 2023 All-Star.
Though Lorenzen's market was quiet in the early months of the offseason, quite a few teams have been linked to him since 2023 turned into 2024. These include the Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota Twins and San Diego Padres, each of whom still has room to add a starter.
The most recent signing that could have implications for Lorenzen is the one-year, $7 million deal that Jakob Junis did with the Milwaukee Brewers. The two right-handers are about in the same age range, though Lorenzen ate close to twice as many innings last season.
As such, the thinking here is that he can probably do a little better in a one-year deal that, at the very least, would give him a well-earned raise on the $8.5 million he pulled in last season.
Projection: 1 year, $11 million
OF Tommy Pham
3 of 9
Age: 35
2023 Stats: 129 G, 481 PA, 16 HR, 22 SB, .256 AVG, .328 OBP, .446 SLG
Original Rank: 38
The one-year, $6 million pact that Tommy Pham made with the New York Mets last winter was essentially a pillow contract meant to rebuild his value after a down 2022 season.
It did what it was supposed to do in this respect, as Pham made improvements across the board even though he might have been unlucky at the plate. It hasn't resulted in a raise yet, though that's apparently not for lack of interested parties.
As Juan Toribio of MLB.com reported earlier this month, at least eight teams have given Pham a look:
How many of those teams are still in the market for Pham is unknown, but the Padres and Boston Red Sox are two theoretical fits that still make sense for him.
Pham's age always figured to bar him from a multiyear deal. But even now, it's not unreasonable to think that he's in line for a raise on what he made last season.
Projection: 1 year, $8 million
CF Michael A. Taylor
4 of 9
Age: 32
2023 Stats: 129 G, 388 PA, 21 HR, 13 SB, .220 AVG, .278 OBP, .442 SLG
Original Rank: 30
Michael A. Taylor hit home runs at nearly the same rate that Ronald Acuña Jr. did in 2023, and he otherwise kept running down fly balls to the tune of nine Outs Above Average.
A multiyear deal thus seemed plausible at the outset of the winter, with FanGraphs projecting one for Taylor at two years, $14 million. Yet him actually getting that has seemed unlikely for a while, and even less so now.
The Minnesota Twins, his most recent club, are the team that was most recently linked to Taylor, but they now no longer need him to be their Plan B for Byron Buxton. That job presumably belongs to Manuel Margot after he came aboard via trade Monday.
There's still the Padres, who Robert Murray of FanSided linked to Taylor in January. Identifying good fits for him is otherwise a guessing game, as there just aren't many teams that would benefit from adding a defense-first center fielder who isn't an everyday player.
I'm therefore compelled to take the under on initial projections for Taylor's deal, to a point where I can imagine him settling for a modest raise on the $4.5 million he made in 2023.
Projection: 1 year, $6 million
RHP Mike Clevinger
5 of 9
Age: 33
2023 Stats: 24 G, 24 GS, 131.1 IP, 121 H (16 HR), 110 K, 40 BB, 3.77 ERA
Original Rank: 22
Mike Clevinger earned an $8 million salary last year but then took a $4 million buyout in lieu of exercising his end of a $12 million mutual option for 2024.
He wouldn't have done that if he didn't think he could get more money on the open market, and that wasn't unreasonable. Both MLBTR and FanGraphs pegged him for a two-year deal in the $20-$30 million range.
What's ensued instead is a whole bunch of silence. If it's because teams are spooked by the sustainability of Clevinger's 2023 performance, well, that's fair. He wasn't overpowering and he got hit hard, to boot.
Still, Clevinger is nothing worse than a candidate for a back-end rotation job. Plenty of teams could still use a pitcher like that, and the injury bug is bound to create more openings as spring training rolls along.
The smart money is probably on Clevinger ending up in the same earning bracket as Lorenzen. But if only one of them is going to luck into a Jake Odorizzi contract, I'll take Clevinger as my pick.
Projection: 2 years, $20 million
DH J.D. Martinez
6 of 9
Age: 36
2023 Stats: 113 G, 479 PA, 33 HR, 1 SB, .271 AVG, .321 OBP, .572 SLG
Original Rank: 16
There's been reporting aplenty about J.D. Martinez turning down the San Francisco Giants, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post writing that he simply didn't want to go there.
But then you also have Bob Nightengale of USA Today writing that Martinez rejected the Giants' one-year, $14 million offer because it wasn't good enough. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com echoed that and noted that the Boras client has a specific figure in mind:
Because he's a six-time All-Star and coming off a strong 2023 season, one would think that Martinez could easily get a deal like that. And even with the Giants off the board after signing Jorge Soler, the slugger still has his share of hypothetical fits.
The Angels and New York Mets are among them, and Heyman also pointed to the Texas Rangers. None of the three has a clear answer at designated hitter, while each of the three has historically done its share of spending.
It's mostly been an offseason of one-year deals for DH types, however, and Martinez doesn't exactly have youth on his side. Him settling for less than $20 million is likely inevitable.
Projection: 1 year, $16 million
3B Matt Chapman
7 of 9
Age: 30
2023 Stats: 140 G, 581 PA, 17 HR, 4 SB, .240 AVG, .330 OBP, .424 SLG
Original Rank: 8
Matt Chapman reportedly had a chance to sign a nine-figure contract with the Toronto Blue Jays prior to reaching free agency but chose to bet on himself instead.
Despite initial projections that went as high as $150 million for Heyman and MLBTR, it always was a risky play. Chapman has been a volatile performer for three years now, including in 2023. After a hot April, he managed just a .653 OPS the rest of the way.
The impression one gets now is of a market that's failed to launch. And since Chapman is a Boras client, the cautionary tales of Mike Moustakas and Dallas Keuchel come to mind.
Both ended up signing one-year contracts in 2018 and 2019 after they had been projected to earn lucrative multiyear deals. The silver lining is that both cashed in the following winter, which would be Chapman's hope if he and Boras have to take the same route.
Yet this is the worst-case scenario, of course. It's more reasonable to expect Boras to do for Chapman what he did for Bellinger: try for a smaller multiyear deal with a respectable guarantee and opt-outs galore.
Projection: 3 years, $60 million with opt-outs after 2024 and 2025
LHP Jordan Montgomery
8 of 9
Age: 31
2023 Stats: 32 G, 32 GS, 188.2 IP, 177 H (18 HR), 166 K, 48 BB, 3.20 ERA
Original Rank: 7
As for the next Boras client on this list, it doesn't sound as if Jordan Montgomery's purported wish of returning to the Rangers is going to come true.
He still has his share of suitors, however, including four referenced by Heyman during a B/R live stream last week:
But can Montgomery and Boras still achieve their desired asking price? It's a big one, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote in January that executives and agents both said Montgomery was looking to beat Aaron Nola's seven-year, $172 million contract.
If there's ever been a point when that was likely, it's surely not now. One of those four teams (hint: It's the Chicago Cubs) is already projected to surpass its 2023 spending in 2024. The other three, meanwhile, have to be looking at the Bellinger deal and thinking Boras could also settle with Montgomery.
Sonny Gray's three-year, $75 million pact with the St. Louis Cardinals could be a model, albeit one that's also likely to be littered with opt-outs.
Projection: 3 years, $75 million with opt-outs after 2024 and 2025
LHP Blake Snell
9 of 9
Age: 31
2023 Stats: 32 G, 32 GS, 180.0 IP, 115 H (15 HR), 234 K, 99 BB, 2.25 ERA
Original Rank: 4
This tour of Boras clients shall conclude with Blake Snell, who has one very notable player stumping for him to join the New York Yankees.
"It would be unbelievable to have two Cy Young winners going back to back; it'd be great," Juan Soto, who teamed with Snell in San Diego in 2022 and 2023, told Heyman. "[Snell's] a great guy, a great player. Any help that we can get I would love."
But if Snell is going to join Gerrit Cole in New York—thus making the Yankees the first team since the 1990 Kansas City Royals with both reigning Cy Young Award winners on their roster—it's probably not going to be on his terms.
Per a January report from Nightengale, Snell and Boras responded to a six-year, $150 million offer from the Yankees with a whopping counteroffer: nine years, $270 million.
A deal like that was likely never possible, and even Snell and Boras seem to realize it isn't now. Per another report from Heyman, Boras has been pitching a shorter deal with higher average annual values and opt-outs.
Another Bellinger deal, basically. And whether it's the Yankees, the Angels or someone else who agrees to it, the parameters of the Bellinger deal make it that much easier to do the math on what Snell might be in for.
Projection: 3 years, $100 million with opt-outs after 2024 and 2025
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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