Rangers Have Lingering Kaapo Kakko Question at 2024 NHL Trade Deadline

It's no surprise that the New York Rangers are a presence in trade discussions. The team is atop the Metropolitan Division and could be primed for a run at the Stanley Cup. But amid the usual discussion of trading prospects and draft picks, the name of fifth-year winger Kaapo Kakko is a surprising emergence.

"I know that multiple sources have said that [general manager Chris] Drury is taking calls on Kakko," TSN's Darren Dreger reported in late January. "Now, losing Filip Chytil for the remainder of the season is a big blow for the Rangers, but New York has cap space and potentially the assets, like Kakko, to acquire a significant piece."

Let's get this out of the way. Kakko was drafted second overall by the Rangers in 2019 and has not lived up to expectations. He likely never will. A million conversations can be had about how the No. 1 pick from that year, Jack Hughes, has blown him away, what has gone wrong in his development, how far he'd fall in a 2019 redraft, and how a player who was once the top prize of an infamous rebuild is now a potential trade chip at age 23.

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Moving past that, Kakko is still an impactful player. His 18 goals and 22 assists in 82 games last season was solid production from a 22-year-old. Consider that he averaged third-line minutes and received little power-play time. His 33 even-strength points tied him for 110th among all forwards last season. By the numbers, that is high-end second-line output.

The numbers this season—five goals and three assists in 25 games—don't look as great and reflect poor luck early in the season and a severe leg injury that put him on the shelf.

What remains consistent is his ability to drive play. The Rangers have a 54.1 percent expected goal share at five-on-five with Kakko on the ice this season, ranking second among all Blueshirt forwards. While that doesn't show in Kakko's point totals, the impact on the Rangers is obvious: They're outscoring other teams 12-9 this season when playing five-on-five.

Most Rangers fans would confirm that the "eye test" backs these results. It seems that whatever line Kakko is on has momentum. Early in the season, when Kakko was on the top line with Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider, the group generated a ton of offense, but couldn't get a bounce.

Since Kakko moved off the line and Blake Wheeler moved into his spot, the play of the other two has plummeted. Zibanejad has only two five-on-five goals in his last 25 games.

Meanwhile, the Rangers' bottom six has gone from the team's biggest problem to a strength. Now with Will Cuylle and Jonny Brodzinski on a checking third line, the trio has outscored the opposition 4-2 and has 60 percent of the expected goal share. Head coach Peter Laviolette called out their success on Monday.

Why is Drury reportedly dangling Kakko? The upcoming offseason probably has something to do with it. Kakko will be a restricted free agent in July and is due for a raise from his $2.1 million cap hit. He'll be joined by Ryan Lindgren and Braden Schneider in that regard. The projected $4.2 million salary-cap increase for 2024-25 does not come close to covering those three.

The Rangers' top prospects are Gabe Perreault and Brennan Othmann, who could soon be top-six NHL wingers. Cuylle has shined on the third line, while winger Brett Berard has been one of the team's best players in the AHL.

If the Rangers want to make a big addition at right wing, the money has to come from somewhere. With reinforcements coming up the pipeline, Kakko may end up being a cap casualty.

If the team may have to part with Kakko over the summer, it makes sense to at least put him out there and see who bites. If he can be the piece that gets the Rangers a major upgrade for this season, then they might as well expedite his departure.

The problem here is two-fold. First, it's not going to be easy to replace Kakko because he pulls a lot of rope for New York. He is one of the team's best defensive forwards. He is fantastic at protecting the puck and tiring out the opposition along the walls. He is one of the team's top producers of cycle offense.

Second, what realistic trade target fits the bill? Few players would be worth Kakko as a rental, and certainly not Adam Henrique nor Vladimir Tarasenko. To make trading Kakko worthwhile, the Rangers would need to acquire a player who is both a clear upgrade and has term on his contract.

Can Drury convince the Buffalo Sabres to part with Alex Tuch? Would the Flyers entertain offers for Travis Konecny? Those would be the type of moves in which the Rangers would absolutely have to put Kakko on the table. Those seem like long shots. The trade market is always full of secrets, but there are no clear candidates of that ilk.

Put aside all preconceptions of Kakko as a former top prospect. What you have is a 6'2", 206-pound winger who plays a heavy game, defends at a high level and chips in secondary offense at even strength. To acquire that type of player as a rental, you would need a second- or third-round pick. He represents those things but as a 23-year-old under team control through 2026.

There are legitimate questions to ask about Kakko's long-term future in New York, and that, in theory, makes him an expendable asset. If the Rangers want to upgrade at right wing, they'll rent a Tarasenko or Anthony Duclair at a reasonable cost. Until and unless the market offers up a player who represents a meaningful upgrade, it makes the most sense for the Rangers to punt any decisions on the right winger until the summer.

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Advanced statistics obtained from Natural Stat Trick. Salary-Cap info via CapFriendly.