Buying or Selling NFL's Biggest Rising and Spiraling Teams Ahead of Week 16
"Are they peaking at just the right time?"
"Have the wheels come off?"
"Son, can you find out what your mom wants for Christmas ASAP?"
All questions asked right around this time each year, two of which are relevant to the NFL's inevitable annual ebb and flow.
In this case, we've identified three teams in contention that appear to be on the incline, and four so-called contenders that have at least hit speed bumps. Let's draw some conclusions regarding whether the risers are peaking perfectly or if it's too little too late, and whether the sinkers are spiraling or just in ruts.
Rising: Buffalo Bills (8-6)
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The high-end preseason Super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills hit rock bottom when they dropped to 5-5 in the first part of November, but they haven't lost in regulation since then.
Why the rise is real: I mean, they took the contender Eagles to overtime on the road, beat the reigning champion Chiefs at Arrowhead and then smashed the previously smoking-hot Cowboys.
Why it's a mirage: They remain two games back of the division-leading Dolphins and have to deal with Miami in its house in Week 18.
Verdict: Buy. The margin for error is minuscule, but 10 wins might get them in as a wild card, and I'm still expecting them to complete the season sweep of Miami. They have a good chance of sneaking in, at which point they could do some serious damage.
Sinking: Dallas Cowboys (10-4)
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The Dallas Cowboys were rolling before hitting a wall via a 31-10 prime-time loss to the Bills on Sunday.
Why the decline is real: Legit contenders get blown out by fellow so-called fellow contenders in December.
Why it's a mirage: It's entirely possible that was an aberration for a team that had won its previous five games by a combined 116 points.
Verdict: Buy. Primarily because that five-game hot streak greatly outweighs a potential one-off road dud against a motivated and talented team, but also because the division-rival Eagles are falling apart (more on them soon).
Rising: Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)
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Without franchise quarterback Joe Burrow, the Cincinnati Bengals have found a way to remain in the picture by winning three consecutive games to kick off December.
Why the rise is real: Cincinnati is an experienced, battle-tested team that has always found ways to win and is doing exactly that right now.
Why it's a mirage: They're quarterbacked by Jake Browning, who has a triple-digit passer rating but had never thrown a regular-season pass until this season. And now Browning is without Ja'Marr Chase. They've also been streaking and slumpy all year, so they could easily come back to earth soon.
Verdict: Buy*. At least to make the playoffs and cause some trouble. They possess head-to-head tiebreakers over fellow 8-6 wild-card contenders Indianapolis and Buffalo, and they have a good shot at winning two of their last three against Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Cleveland.
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Sinking: Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6)
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Once seemingly positioned to run away with the AFC South, the Jacksonville Jaguars have posted an 0-3 record this month to fall into a three-way tie with Houston and Indianapolis atop that odd division.
Why the decline is real: One of those losses came at home against a team missing its starting quarterback, another game on the road against a team missing its starting quarterback, and the other was an absolute bomb at home. It's ugly.
Why it's a mirage: Trevor Lawrence is still a hell of a quarterback and there is room for error thanks to the fact they're 3-1 against the Colts and Texans. The closing schedule (at Tampa Bay, Carolina, at Tennessee) is also quite kind to them.
Verdict: Buy*. But for a playoff berth and nothing more. Lawrence is quite banged up, and it's become apparent this team has a ceiling for 2023, but they'll still limp to a soft division victory.
Rising: Cleveland Browns (9-5)
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Written off by many when quarterback Deshaun Watson went down with a season-ending shoulder injury, the Cleveland Browns have shockingly gone 5-2 since the start of November and are all alone as the top wild-card seed.
Why the rise is real: They're cutting it close, but they've defeated some quality teams during this run, thanks primarily to the fact that the defense is one of the best in football.
Why it's a mirage: It's realllllly hard to buy into Joe Flacco at this point in his career.
Verdict: Buy*. Again, just for a one-and-done scenario, though. And mainly because luck is just on their side right now. If C.J. Stroud doesn't play for the Texans on Sunday, each of Cleveland's final three games will come against opponents missing their starting quarterback.
Sinking: Philadelphia Eagles (10-4)
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Once a Super Bowl favorite in most spots, the Philadelphia Eagles have stunningly dropped three consecutive games to begin December.
Why the decline is real: Against San Francisco and Dallas, they weren't even close. The defense has been exploited and quarterback Jalen Hurts has not been right the last five weeks (sub-60 completion percentage and 76.0 rating).
Why it's a mirage: They gained a lot of favor earlier with huge wins over Miami, Dallas, Kansas City and Buffalo, and now they get to finish up with two games against the lowly Giants and a home meeting with the lowly Cardinals.
Verdict: Sell*. In this case, it's a sale despite the fact we're forecasting a fate for Philly that is similar to the three above (one and done). That's because they started too well to fall right out of the playoffs, but I've lost all faith in this team. They'll get upset by either the Giants or Cards and hand the division to Dallas.
Sinking: Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)
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When the Pittsburgh Steelers hit 6-3 in the middle of November, it really looked like they were a lock for at least a wild-card spot, and they certainly seemed destined to avoid a losing record for a ridiculous 20th consecutive season. Now, they've lost three in a row and four of five in rather embarrassing fashion.
Why the decline is real: December home losses to two of the worst teams in football (New England and Arizona) pretty much does the trick, no? Throw in a blowout defeat in Indy and a sad effort against the Watson-less Browns and this is no bueno.
Why it's a mirage: Mike Tomlin often finds a way with this squad?
Verdict: Sell. It's over, especially with Cincinnati, Seattle and Baltimore on the slate to close out the season (the last two coming on the road). The Steelers very well could finish the campaign on a six-game losing streak.
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