MLB Skill Rankings 2024: Matt Olson and Baseball's Top 25 Power Hitters
Who was baseball's best power hitter in 2023?
Rather than simply looking at home run totals, let's take a more analytical approach to compiling our list of the sport's most prolific sluggers.
The first step was to decide what combination of statistics best quantify power.
After some digging and debating, we landed on these four:
- Average Exit Velocity (EV): The average velocity off the bat of all balls in play.
- Hard-Hit Percentage (HardHit%): The frequency with which balls in play travel 90 mph or faster.
- Expected Slugging Percentage (xSLG): Per MLB: "Expected Slugging Percentage is more indicative of a player's skill than regular slugging percentage, as xSLG removes defense from the equation."
- Home Run Total (HR): Since on-field production should still count for something, each player's 2023 home run total was also part of the equation.
The question then became how to use those statistics to best demonstrate the difference between Player A and Player B in terms of overall power.
My methodology and scoring system are outlined on the following slide.
Methodology
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For those of you who read our 2021 and 2022 Skill Rankings series, we're following the same format as last year's version.
First off, the only factor used to narrow the list of candidates was that a player simply had to have at least 100 batted-ball events in 2023. That resulted in 403 eligible players.
From there, players were ranked based on the following scoring system:
- 0.1 point for every 0.1 mph of average exit velocity (EV)
- 0.1 point for every 0.1 percent of hard-hit rate (HardHit%)
- 0.1 point for every .001 of expected slugging (xSLG)
- 1 point for every 2023 home run
In case of a tie, the player who hit more home runs was given the higher ranking.
No bias. No preconceived notions. Just a set of statistical parameters and a straightforward point system to determine the current 25 best power hitters in baseball.
The full data can be found here.
Let's kick things off with a rundown of the 25 players who fell just outside our rankings and make up our honorable mention list.
Honorable Mentions
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These 25 players came up just short of earning a spot in our rankings:
- Christopher Morel, CHC (217.6 points)
- Yandy Díaz, TB (217.3 points)
- Freddie Freeman, LAD (217.2 points)
- Fernando Tatis Jr., SD (216.9 points)
- Nolan Gorman, STL (216.7 points)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR (216.7 points)
- Kyle Tucker, HOU (216.5 points)
- Paul Goldschmidt, STL (215.6 points)
- Nelson Velázquez, KC (214.1 points)
- Teoscar Hernández, FA (213.8 points)
- Mike Trout, LAA (213.5 points)
- Max Kepler, MIN (213.4 points)
- Manny Machado, SD (212.4 points)
- Matt Chapman, FA (212.3 points)
- Giancarlo Stanton, NYY (211.9 points)
- Yainer Diaz, HOU (211.8 points)
- Bryce Harper, PHI (211.8 points)
- Francisco Lindor, NYM (211.5 points)
- Triston Casas, BOS (211.3 points)
- Bryan Reynolds, PIT (210.8 points)
- Sean Murphy, ATL (210.4 points)
- Josh Jung, TEX (209.5 points)
- Brandon Nimmo, NYM (208.8 points)
- Joey Gallo, FA (208.0 points)
- Joc Pederson, FA (207.6 points)
Nos. 25-21
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25. Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles (218.5 points)
Metrics: 92.0 EV, 51.7 HardHit%, .468 xSLG, 28 HR
Henderson put together a well-rounded, 6.2-WAR rookie season to win AL Rookie of the Year honors unanimously, and his 28 home runs tied for the team lead on an Orioles squad that won 101 games and an AL East title. The 22-year-old could be a perennial 30-homer threat in the coming years.
24. Brent Rooker, Oakland Athletics (219.2 points)
Metrics: 91.6 EV, 49.5 HardHit%, .481 xSLG, 30 HR
One of the biggest surprises of the 2023 season, Rooker was claimed off waivers from the Kansas City Royals last November. A first-round pick by the Minnesota Twins in 2017 who looked like he might fall into the dreaded Quad-A category, he posted a 130 OPS+ with 30 home runs and was the lone All-Star selection on a bad Oakland team.
23. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (219.6 points)
Metrics: 90.7 EV, 45.4 HardHit%, .535 xSLG, 30 HR
After a productive rookie season, Witt joined a short list of shortstops who have recorded a 30/30 season, establishing himself as the clear face of the franchise for the Kansas City Royals in the process. The 23-year-old hit .325/.362/.636 with 15 home runs and 43 RBI in 51 games in July and August.
22. Patrick Wisdom, Chicago Cubs (219.9 points)
Metrics: 92.7 EV, 54.7 HardHit%, .495 xSLG, 23 HR
Among players with at least 200 plate appearances, Wisdom ranked seventh in the majors with a 54.7 percent hard-hit rate. A late-bloomer who didn't see regular playing time in the big leagues until his age-29 season, he has slugged 76 home runs in 1,211 plate appearances over the past three years. He has also hit just .214 with a 36.9 percent strikeout rate during that span.
21. Luis Robert Jr., Chicago White Sox (220.4 points)
Metrics: 89.1 EV, 41.7 HardHit%, .516 xSLG, 38 HR
Finally healthy for a full season, Robert was one of the few bright spots on a disappointing Chicago White Sox team. The 26-year-old had a 36-double, 38-homer, 30-steal season while earning his first All-Star selection and winning Silver Slugger honors. He has averaged 33 home runs per 162 games during parts of four seasons in the big leagues.
Nos. 20-16
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20. Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers (221.2 points)
Metrics: 91.8 EV, 50.4 HardHit%, .480 xSLG, 31 HR
Torkelson slugged 54 home runs in 129 games at Arizona State before going No. 1 overall in the 2020 draft, and he moved quickly through the minors as expected. His rookie season in 2022 proved to be a dud, and he was eventually demoted back to the minors, but he took a huge step forward in 2023, logging an .816 OPS and 19 home runs after the All-Star break.
19. Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers (223.4 points)
Metrics: 91.2 EV, 46.0 HardHit%, .502 xSLG, 36 HR
Muncy batted just .212 and was a bit miscast as an everyday third baseman, but he continued to be one of the game's most consistent power hitters. The 33-year-old has hit at least 30 home runs four times in the last six seasons, and he built a strong foundation of production in 2023 when he posted a 1.070 OPS with 11 long balls in 25 games over the season's first month.
18. Julio Rodríguez, Seattle Mariners (224.0 points)
Metrics: 92.7 EV, 52.0 HardHit%, .473 xSLG, 32 HR
Rodríguez followed up his stellar rookie campaign by finishing fourth in 2023 AL MVP voting, posting a 128 OPS+ with 37 doubles, 32 home runs, 103 RBI and 37 steals in a 5.3-WAR season. After a lackluster start to the year, he hit .308/.363/.578 with 19 home runs in 68 games after the All-Star break, and he had a 1.198 OPS with 17 extra-base hits in 23 games in August.
17. Jake Burger, Miami Marlins (225.8 points)
Metrics: 91.9 EV, 49.3 HardHit%, .506 xSLG, 34 HR
The No. 11 overall pick in the 2017 draft after a stellar collegiate career at Mississippi State, Burger entered the 2023 season with just 66 games played at the MLB level after injuries derailed his development. The 27-year-old finally stayed healthy for a full season and delivered a breakout season. He hit .303/.355/.505 with 22 extra-base hits in 53 games after he was traded to the Miami Marlins at the deadline.
16. Pete Alonso, New York Mets (228.2 points)
Metrics: 89.5 EV, 39.9 HardHit%, .528 xSLG, 46 HR
Alonso had the lowest hard-hit rate of anyone to crack the top 25, and it can be attributed to a 47.7 percent fly-ball rate that ranked among the top 10 in baseball. In other words, when he just misses a pitch and hits a fly ball, the resulting exit velocity generally does not register as a hard-hit. Still, there is little question he is one of the game's elite power hitters, and his .528 expected slugging percentage and 46 long balls still put him comfortably on this list.
Nos. 15-11
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15. Jorge Soler, Free Agent (228.4 points)
Metrics: 91.3 EV, 48.0 HardHit%, .531 xSLG, 36 HR
After a disappointing first season in Miami, Soler bounced back nicely to earn his first All-Star selection in 2023. He had huge months in May (.982 OPS, 12 HR) and August (.913, 10 HR), and when he was swinging a hot bat, he carried the Marlins offense for stretches. His spike in production was enough for him to opt out of the final year of his contract and test the free-agency waters.
14. Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves (229.5 points)
Metrics: 92.3 EV, 48.8 HardHit%, .514 xSLG, 37 HR
A bit overshadowed while sharing a lineup with NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. and MLB home run leader Matt Olson, Riley had another excellent season of his own. The 26-year-old finished in the top 10 in NL MVP voting for the third year in a row, and his 108 home runs during that three-year stretch rank sixth in the majors.
13. Adolis García, Texas Rangers (233.1 points)
Metrics: 92.1 EV, 49.7 HardHit%, .523 xSLG, 39 HR
García set career highs in OPS+ (123), home runs (39) and RBI (107) for the World Series champions, and he added another eight home runs and 22 RBI in 15 games during the playoffs while winning ALCS MVP honors. The 30-year-old has quickly gone from surprise late-bloomer to one of the best corner outfielders in baseball.
12. Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox (234.4 points)
Metrics: 93.1 EV, 54.7 HardHit%, .536 xSLG, 33 HR
Now the clear focal point of the Red Sox lineup after Xander Bogaerts departed in free agency, Devers was his usual productive self in 2023 while winning his second career Silver Slugger. Still only 27 years old, he ranked among the MLB leaders in exit velocity (95th percentile), hard-hit rate (98th percentile) and expected slugging (96th percentile).
11. Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers (236.0 points)
Metrics: 92.4 EV, 48.1 HardHit%, .565 xSLG, 39 HR
In his fourth season with the Los Angeles Dodgers and 10th year in the big leagues, Betts launched a career-high 39 home runs, marking the second year in a row he has set a new personal mark. The NL MVP runner-up hit .455/.516/.839 with 10 doubles, 11 home runs and 30 RBI in 28 games during an absurd month of August.
10. J.D. Martinez, Free Agent (236.3 Points)
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Metrics: 93.4 EV, 54.8 HardHit%, .551 xSLG, 33 HR
Veteran J.D. Martinez signed a one-year, $10 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers to replace the departing Justin Turner as the team's primary designated hitter.
The 36-year-old hit just 16 home runs over 596 plate appearances during his final season with the Boston Red Sox, and it looked like his days as an elite power hitter might be in the rearview, but he bounced back in 2023.
His average exit velocity (89.1 to 93.4 mph) and hard-hit rate (41.7 to 55.1 percent) both returned to elite levels, and those marks also represented career highs.
9. Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies (236.4 Points)
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Metrics: 92.4 EV, 48.5 HardHit%, .485 xSLG, 47 HR
There have been just eight 40-homer, 200-strikeout seasons in MLB history, and Kyle Schwarber is the only person to appear on that list twice, having reached those numbers in back-to-back seasons since joining the Philadelphia Phillies.
The 30-year-old slugged a career-high 47 home runs and posted a 122 OPS+ in 2023, but he also hit just .197 with 215 strikeouts in a 0.6-WAR season as one of baseball's most confounding players.
His overall value is still up for debate, but there is little question he belongs on any list of the game's best power hitters.
8. Juan Soto, New York Yankees (237.0 Points)
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Metrics: 93.2 EV, 55.3 HardHit%, .535 xSLG, 35 HR
Juan Soto had a down year by his own lofty standards in 2022, hitting .242 with 27 home runs and 62 RBI in 153 games, albeit with his usual elite on-base numbers and a 147 OPS+ that still ranked among the league leaders.
The 25-year-old returned to MVP form in his first full season with the San Diego Padres, hitting .275/.410/.519 while slugging a career-high 35 home runs, and he finished among the MLB leaders in exit velocity (96th percentile) and hard-hit rate (99th percentile).
He will now take aim at the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium, though his all-fields approach means he might not benefit as much as a more pull-happy lefty slugger.
7. Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros (239.0 Points)
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Metrics: 93.3 EV, 52.2 HardHit%, .625 xSLG, 31 HR
One of the best pure hitters in baseball with a smooth, compact left-handed swing, Yordan Alvarez also possesses huge raw power in his 6'5", 225-pound frame.
The 26-year-old has done nothing but hit since running away with AL Rookie of the Year honors in 2019 when he smacked 27 home runs in 87 games to win the award unanimously over John Means and Brandon Lowe.
His 31 home runs came in just 114 games in 2023 as he missed more than a month with an oblique injury, so there could easily be a 40-homer season on deck if he stays healthy for a full year.
6. Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves (239.1 Points)
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Metrics: 91.8 EV, 49.0 HardHit%, .583 xSLG, 40 HR
Heading into the third season of a four-year, $65 million contract, it looked like Marcell Ozuna might be a sunk cost for the Atlanta Braves after he hit a dismal .226/.274/.413 for an 88 OPS+ in 507 plate appearances during the 2022 season.
The 33-year-old instead bounced back with a 40-homer, 100-RBI season in a stacked Atlanta lineup, and he hit .301/.373/.647 with 23 home runs and 60 RBI in 71 games after the All-Star break as one of the league's most productive second-half hitters.
He is owed another $18 million in 2024, followed by a $16 million club option for the 2025 season that includes a $1 million buyout.
5. Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (240.3 Points)
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Metrics: 93.3 EV, 53.2 HardHit%, .608 xSLG, 33 HR
Corey Seager had a 42-double, 33-homer season and he only played 119 games, finishing runner-up to Shohei Ohtani in AL MVP voting and helping the Texas Rangers win a World Series title.
With a .327/.390/.623 line and those 75 extra-base hits in only 536 plate appearances, there is a case to be made that he was baseball's best all-around hitter during the 2023 season when he was healthy.
The 29-year-old joined Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson and Reggie Jackson as the only players in MLB history to win multiple World Series MVP awards.
4. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (255.1 Points)
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Metrics: 94.4 EV, 53.3 HardHit%, .634 xSLG, 44 HR
A healthy final month of the season likely would have moved Shohei Ohtani to the No. 2 spot on this list simply by adding a few more home runs to his total, but as it stands he still had an elite power-hitting season despite only 14 plate appearances in September.
He had 32 home runs at the All-Star break thanks in large part to a 15-homer month in June, and he was sitting on 39 long balls at the end of July with a chance to make a run at a 60-homer season.
An oblique injury prematurely ended his season at the plate, but now he'll join a stacked lineup with Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith and others to provide a level of protection he rarely had during his time with the Angels.
3. Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta Braves (256.7 Points)
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Metrics: 94.7 EV, 55.0 HardHit%, .660 xSLG, 41 HR
Ronald Acuña Jr. posted a middling .413 slugging percentage and 15 home runs in 533 plate appearances in his return from a torn ACL in 2022, and it was fair to question if he would ever be the same dynamic player he was pre-injury.
Those questions were emphatically answered with a unanimous NL MVP run in 2023 where he hit .337/.416/.596 with 35 doubles, 41 home runs, 106 RBI and 73 steals in an 8.2-WAR season.
Behind those impressive surface-level numbers, he also slashed his strikeout rate (23.6 to 11.4 percent), making it even more difficult for opposing pitchers to attack him atop a stacked Atlanta lineup.
2. Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (258.9 Points)
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Metrics: 93.7 EV, 55.1 HardHit%, .561 xSLG, 54 HR
The MLB leader in home runs (54) and RBI (139), and one of only three players with a .600 slugging percentage along with Shohei Ohtani and Corey Seager, first baseman Matt Olson etched his name into the Atlanta Braves franchise record books in 2023.
His 54 home runs now stand as the single-season team record, surpassing the 51 that Andruw Jones hit during the 2005 season, while Hall of Famers Hank Aaron and Eddie Mathews are tied for third on the list with 47.
Olson had a 1.147 OPS with 11 home runs and 27 RBI in 124 plate appearances during the season's final month to put the finishing touches on the best season of his career.
1. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (270.9 Points)
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Metrics: 97.6 EV, 64.2 HardHit%, .721 xSLG, 37 HR
Aaron Judge is simply on another level when it comes to almost any measure of power.
Here's a quick look at how far ahead of the No. 2 player he was on the leaderboard for exit velocity, hard-hit rate and expected slugging percentage among the 403 qualified hitters:
- EV: 1. Judge (97.6 mph), 2. Ronald Acuña Jr. (94.7 mph)
- HardHit%: 1. Judge (64.2%), 2. Matt Chapman (56.1%)
- xSLG: 1. Judge (.721), 2. Ronald Acuña Jr. (.660)
He only played in 106 games and still launched 37 home runs, which extrapolates out to a 57-homer season if he had managed to take the field for all 162 games. Even with all of that missed time, he still comfortably claimed the No. 1 spot in these rankings.
