B/R College Football 2023 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Bowl Season Part 1
Betting on bowl games has never been more difficult than it is right now.
The transfer portal, opt-outs and the coaching carousel have made the process of sizing up these games that much more challenging. With that perfectly fine disclaimer acknowledged, we are up for the challenge.
Of course, we are.
The bowl season, in its imperfect and constantly evolving form, is still one of the most wonderful times of the year. And here at Locks of the Week headquarters, where we pick college football games against the spread all year long, we're ready to go the distance.
In this installment, we're picking games that fall between December 16-23. We'll hit the major bowls and the playoff games in the future. For the time being, let's maintain our focus.
Here are some early bowl picks to get things started.
For the latest spreads on these games, go to DraftKings.
New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico State vs. Fresno State (Over 51.5)
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The first weekend of bowl games always has a few gems, and this is the finest gem of all.
New Mexico State was one of the big surprises this year, thriving under Jerry Kill's guidance. While the regular season ultimately ended in a double-digit loss to Liberty in the conference championship game, even that game was closer than the final score indicated.
Fresno State, meanwhile, was on the cusp of flirting with a New Year's bowl before losing its last three games. That finish makes this a tough one to size up, although a small break wasn't the worst thing for a team that clearly needed one.
We're staying away from choosing a side, but we are backing points. There should be plenty.
Independence Bowl: Cal (+3) vs. Texas Tech
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In the madness of the Pac-12, with various teams occupying the spotlight week over week, Cal salvaged a 6-6 year.
The Golden Bears won their last three, played tough games against USC and Oregon State, and they have enough offense to make this a game.
This team played a brutal schedule and still managed to make it here. Not bad.
On the Texas Tech side, it was an up-and-down year. The Red Raiders' season ended with a thud against Texas, but there were some high points along the way.
Points should be plentiful in this matchup, and the over is certainly worth a look. As a small dog, though, Cal feels ripe to earn the outright win.
Long live the Pac-12.
Frisco Bowl: UTSA (-10) vs. Marshall
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After starting out 1-3, UTSA found new life.
Battling injuries and inadequate play, the Roadrunners turned things around. They won seven consecutive games, losing the finale at Tulane. (There's no shame in that.)
Barring change, quarterback Frank Harris will play the final game in his long and successful college career. And he should have ample opportunities to go out in style.
As for Marshall, well, the 2023 season had a bit of everything. The lowlight was a five-game losing streak, albeit one that came against stiff competition. The highlight—if you want to call it that—was winning two of its final three games.
UTSA has both the skill and the momentum. This could get ugly.
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Las Vegas Bowl: Utah (-7) vs. Northwestern
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A little more than a year ago, quarterback Cam Rising injured his knee in the Rose Bowl. That injury drastically impacted the offensive performance of the Utah Utes as the 24-year-old sat out the season.
Even without Rising, who will return next season, this feels like a significant talent gap. Utah isn't the same team it was in 2022 at quarterback or elsewhere, but it won't matter here.
Granted, Northwestern has had a brilliant season. The Wildcats entered the year in turmoil, and they leave as a program in a bowl game with real momentum. Head coach David Braun deserves significant praise for that.
However, this feels like a significant step up in class. Utah enters 2024 on the right note.
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force (+3) vs. James Madison
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The current state of college football could be summarized in this one game.
James Madison, fresh off a superb 11-1 year, must now remake its entire program. Head coach Curt Cignetti has joined Indiana, and both coordinators (and the quarterback coach) are also gone.
The team's best player? Yep, he's gone as well. But not yet.
Quarterback Jordan McCloud, who was the Sun Belt Player of the Year, is in the portal. He will still play in the bowl game, and that's a big deal. But there are holes to fill on the player and coaching front, and it's hard to do that in a couple of weeks.
After starting the year with eight straight wins, Air Force lost its final four games. The competition was better, although the drop-off was worse. However, playing a program undergoing significant change will help a team that needs a jolt.
Air Force wasn't exactly kind to the bank account this year. For at least one week, we get right.
Other Games on the Card
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Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, December 23: Georgia State (+1) vs Utah State
As a reminder, the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl mascot is terrifying. Why does that matter? That's a fair question. Regardless, an underrated Georgia State team, which struggled down the stretch against tougher opponents, is a solid play.
Birmingham Bowl, December 23: Duke (+7.5) vs. Troy
Duke has lost its coach and its quarterback, but it is equipped to stay in this game until the very end. Troy can run the ball, although the Blue Devils should be able to keep this one within a score.
Hawaii Bowl, December 23: San Jose State vs. Coastal Carolina (Over 53.5)
It's an absolute shame this won't be played on Christmas Eve, although the game itself should feature plenty of activity. Look for San Jose State to do much of the heavy lifting, but Coastal Carolina will do enough to hit the over.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
