Are the Dolphins Good, Lucky or Untested? Why Miami Is the NFL's Most Polarizing Team

The Miami Dolphins have become the top seed in the AFC, and that conference's Super Bowl favorite.

But are the Dolphins the real deal? You're allowed to have doubts about a team hasn't passed too many true tests thus far, even if on paper they've aligned themselves with elite championship contenders.

Let's look at the interesting dynamics surrounding this NFL season's most polarizing team thus far.

Good?

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FRANKFURT AM MAIN, GERMANY - NOVEMBER 5: Head Coach Mike McDaniel of Miami Dolphins looks on during the NFL match between Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs at Deutsche Bank Park on November 5, 2023 in Frankfurt am Main, Germany. (Photo by Mario Hommes/DeFodi Images via Getty Images)

There are plenty of reasons to commend these Dolphins as a legitimate Super Bowl contender...

• At 9-3, only the Philadelphia Eagles have a better record 
• They rank fourth in points differential at +118
• They're averaging an NFL-best 6.9 yards per offensive play, while only one other team in the NFL has averaged more than 6.0 yards per play
• They possess the league's second-highest-scoring offense 
• That offensive unit includes two of the league's top eight MVP candidates at DraftKings (quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and wide receiver Tyreek Hill)
• Head coach Mike McDaniel is also a prime Coach of the Year candidate 
• Coming out of their Week 10 bye, they've won three games in a row, with a defense that is generally ranked in the middle of the pack surrendering 15 or fewer points in all three outings
• In fact, that D gave up 29.8 points per game in the first four weeks of the season but that number has plummeted to 18.4 since

Lucky?

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PHILADELPHIA, PA - OCTOBER 22: Philadelphia Eagles Defensive End Josh Sweat (94) and Defensive Tackle Fletcher Cox (91) sack Miami Dolphins Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) in the second half during the game between the Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles on October 22, 2023 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

On the other hand Miami could be considered very fortunate for a number of factors...

• The combined winning percentage of teams defeated by the Dolphins this season is .303, which is the lowest rate in the AFC and the third-lowest mark in the league
• They've yet to defeat a team with a winning record 
• Their three losses have all come against high-quality AFC contenders
• Their overall strength of schedule has been the easiest in the entire league, according to Pro Football Reference

Something in Between?

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LANDOVER, MARYLAND - DECEMBER 03: Tyreek Hill #10 of the Miami Dolphins celebrates with teammate Braxton Berrios #0 after scoring a touchdown against the Washington Commanders during the first quarter of the game at FedExField on December 03, 2023 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)

However, it's important to note that some of these factors are beyond Miami's control...

• The Dolphins can't be faulted for their schedule alone: Even prime contenders aren't necessarily expected to beat teams like the Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs on the road
• In their only home game against a team that doesn't have a losing record, they absolutely freakin' hammered the Denver Broncos 70-20 in Week 3. 
• Injuries could obstruct everything: Not only is Tagovailoa's injury history an ongoing concern, but Hill (ankle) is also banged up, veteran offensive line starters Robert Hunt (hamstring) and Terron Armstead (ankle) are freshly hurt, linebacker Jerome Baker now has a knee injury, and they've lost standout edge Jaelan Phillips to a season-ending Achilles injury

Check Back on New Year's Day

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LANDOVER, MD -DECEMBER 3: Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) talks with head coach Mike McDaniel during third quarter action against the Washington Commanders at FedEx Field on December 3, 2023. (Photo by Jonathan Newton/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

Realistically, we're unlikely to get a feel for who the real Miami Dolphins are in upcoming matchups with the relatively uncompetitive Tennessee Titans and New York Jets. But smack dab in the midst of the holiday season, Miami is finally going to go through a critical pre-playoff litmus test.

The team hosts the Dallas Cowboys on Christmas Eve and then goes on the road to face the Baltimore Ravens in New Year's Eve. Those two teams rank among the top six in Super Bowl odds at DraftKings.

Miami might not have to win both of those games. A split, especially with a victory over the AFC rival Ravens on the road, would suffice in the eyes of many. But go 0-2 there and you're likely to be written off by everybody before a Week 18 home matchup with the Bills. Go 2-0 there and there's a very good chance you're viewed as the official AFC Super Bowl fave as we ring in 2024 just hours after that tilt with the Ravens.

So while the Dolphins remain enigmatic for the time being, that'll likely change soon. The real Miami Dolphins will be forced to stand up before we've put 2023 to bed.