Buy or Sell Yamamoto to Mets and MLB Trade, Free-Agency Rumors Post-Winter Meetings
After four days at MLB's winter meetings that didn't produce anywhere near as much action as we were hoping for—aside from the major Juan Soto trade, of course—we are left clinging to all sorts of rumors of things possibly on the horizon.
Do we actually know anything about where Shohei Ohtani is going to land?
What should we make of what we're hearing about the pursuit of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who reportedly could be headed for as much as a $300 million contract?
On the trades front, do we think Corbin Burnes, Bo Bichette and/or Alex Bregman are actually on the block?
How many teams are trying to swing a deal for Tampa Bay's Tyler Glasnow?
We'll get into the latest rumblings on all of those fronts and reach a verdict on whether we're buying or selling those rumors.
Shohei Ohtani Decision Expected by Sunday?
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The Latest: MLB Network's Jon Morosi reported that Shohei Ohtani is expected to sign by the end of this weekend.
It's abundantly clear at this point that Shohei Ohtani is neither operating on anyone's timeline other than his own nor divulging any information to anyone in the media.
He allegedly met with the Toronto Blue Jays this past Monday at the team's complex in Florida, but no one seems to be able to confirm that.
The only reason we know he met with the Dodgers is because manager Dave Roberts said as much to reporters, which created some backlash in itself.
We still don't know what surgical procedure was performed on Ohtani's elbow back in September.
Heck, reporters have been trying to no avail to find out the name of the dog that he was with when he virtually accepted his second AL MVP award.
Everything about this process has been top secret, and no one has any clue where he's actually going to land.
But we somehow know that he's going to make his decision by Sunday?
Really?
When Morosi said himself Thursday afternoon that the Dodgers, Angels, Blue Jays, Giants and Cubs are all still in contention to get him?
It's entirely possible that the massive announcement happens by the end of the weekend, but if he hasn't already made the decision, it's hard to believe that he has some sort of "in the next 72 hours" deadline in mind.
Ohtani can wait as long as he wants, and teams are going to continue to wait on him.
Verdict: Selling that Ohtani will sign by Sunday
Dodgers Are the Clear Favorite for Ohtani...Because of Joe Kelly?
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The Latest: A few days after re-signing reliever Joe Kelly to a one-year, $8 million deal, the Dodgers asked if he would be willing to change his uniform number, which just so happens to match Shohei Ohtani's, per USA Today's Bob Nightengale.
In lieu of any actual news about Shohei Ohtani's impending decision, we've been left trying to decode bread crumbs that could be entirely irrelevant.
On Wednesday night, MLB Network was speculating (perhaps jokingly, perhaps seriously) that Ohtani's dog's name might be a clue as to where he's planning to sign. But, again, no one even knows the dog's name, so that's just another dead end.
But the Dodgers may have provided us with an actual, usable nugget of information with this reported request of Kelly to change his uniform number.
Kelly has been wearing No. 17 for the past five years, as has Ohtani for the past six years. (Though, he did wear No. 16 in the World Baseball Classic, so perhaps he isn't that attached to 17?) And according to Nightengale, Kelly "informed Dodger officials that he'd be honored to switch uniform numbers for Ohtani."
This feels like something that could wait until they were on the brink of finishing the signing, right?
Why formally request a number change unless you actually need it?
And if Kelly was so attached to 17 that he refused to make the switch, heck, just release him on the spot. Can't let an $8 million middle reliever's attachment to his number keep you from making the biggest acquisition in MLB history.
Because of all that, I feel like there's actually something to this. Perhaps the Dodgers are being a bit premature in making the request, but they are confident enough about getting Ohtani that they are making sure to clear all possible hurdles.
Verdict: Buying that the jersey change shows Los Angeles believes it is about to sign Ohtani.
Houston Astros Have No Interest in Trading Alex Bregman?
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The latest: "I'm not worried one bit about the articles and rumors and I'm not sure where it's coming from, but at the end of the day, Alex (Bregman) is a pillar here."—Astros GM Dana Brown, per The Athletic's Chandler Rome.
It seems these "Alex Bregman on the trade block" rumors all originated about a month ago at the GM meetings, when USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported that "a high-ranking Astros executive said their intention is to keep (Jose) Altuve for the duration of his career but are highly skeptical they can also retain Bregman."
Both players now rank top 10 in career bWAR with the Astros, but they are also both entering the final season of the nine-figure contracts they signed a few years ago.
Considering the Padres just traded away Juan Soto while guys like Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, Tyler Glasnow and Pete Alonso have been oft-discussed trade targets with one year remaining before free agency, we've reached some weird tipping point where people just assume that any player who isn't likely to receive a long-term extension is just on the trade block now.
But Houston trading away Bregman never made a lick of sense as a rumor.
As Brown said, he is a pillar for that franchise, playing a key role in all seven of its consecutive trips to the ALCS. And the Astros are not in a "burn it down and start planning for future seasons" situation, as they absolutely could win it all in 2024.
Houston's situation is similar to that of the Chicago Cubs in 2021. The window on this core might be closing, but they are not going to bail on their multiple-time All-Stars during the offseason.
Could we see the Astros trade away Bregman at the in-season deadline if they just bottom out for the first time in a decade? Sure. But it's absurd that their GM had to shoot down a rumor that Bregman might be on the block.
Verdict: Buying that Houston has no interest in trading Alex Bregman
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Bo Bichette on the Trade Block?
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The Latest: "The Blue Jays are getting calls on first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as well as (Bo) Bichette, according to major-league sources who were granted anonymity in order to speak freely. However, it makes little sense for the Jays to move either star when they are under pressure to win and believed to be pursuing Shohei Ohtani." - The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal on Nov. 28.
Rosenthal's report came a few days after rumors that had surfaced the previous week about possible "Bo Bichette to the Chicago Cubs" trade discussions, with Rosenthal more or less concluding that nothing was remotely imminent and that it's a simple case of teams doing their due diligence on asking about Bichette's availability.
Still, would the Blue Jays be willing to consider trading Bichette? And what could the Cubs have possibly been offering that would've gotten a trade anywhere close to the finish line?
Bichette's name didn't show up in any reports during the winter meetings, even as the Blue Jays were reportedly one of the top suitors for Juan Soto. In the Padres' case, though, they've already had to convert one shortstop into an outfielder (Fernando Tatis Jr.) to play all of Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Ha-Seong Kim on an everyday basis. Adding another shortstop with only one more year of team control than Soto wouldn't have made any sense.
Even if it was a good fit for the Padres, why would Toronto have any interest in parting with a two-time All-Star and three-time AL MVP vote recipient who has racked up 555 hits over the past three years—especially when he's under contract for another two years at a combined cost of under $30 million?
The Blue Jays have already lost Matt Chapman, Kevin Kiermaier and Brandon Belt. Trading away even more hitters—let alone the best hitter on the roster—would be nonsensical unless they receive some sort of Godfather offer that they can't refuse.
The Blue Jays are still in on Ohtani, so maybe, for budgetary reasons, they would look to trade Bichette if they are able to land the former Angel. But even then, it's doubtful. Gotta think they would just let it ride for two years with a Bichette-Ohtani-Guerrero core.
Verdict: Selling Bo Bichette being on the trade block.
Corbin Burnes on the Move?
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The Latest: MLB insider Jon Heyman tweeted Wednesday morning, "Rivals who've talked to the Brewers believe there's a decent chance they will move ace Corbin Burnes this winter."
At this point, we've been talking about Corbin Burnes as a trade candidate for more than a full calendar year. But it has always been from a "here's something Milwaukee should consider" perspective as opposed to any actual inclination from the Brewers that they are willing to trade him away.
For a bit there, it did look like Milwaukee was starting to resign itself to the idea of closing this window and starting to prepare for the next one. The Brewers lost manager Craig Counsell to the Cubs. They traded Mark Canha to the Tigers for a pitching prospect who doesn't even rank top 30 in the Brewers farm system, per MLB.com. And then they non-tendered the injured Brandon Woodruff as well as Rowdy Tellez.
But then they signed 19-year-old prospect Jackson Chourio to a long-term deal. That came after they scooped up former Mariners pitcher Easton McGee on a minor league deal and before they signed both Wade Miley and Joe Ross as free agents.
Those aren't the actions of a team that's gearing up to trade away its ace and admit defeat on the 2024 season before it even begins.
Besides, it's unlikely Milwaukee is going to get what it perceives to be fair value for Burnes.
Between Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Shota Imanaga and other arms available as free agents, as well as Tyler Glasnow, Shane Bieber and Dylan Cease on the trade block, there are just a lot of solid pitchers out there this year. And as great as Burnes is, I'm not sure there are teams trying to give up top prospects to get him.
That could change, of course. We'll see how the pitching market sorts itself out. But a "decent chance" that he gets traded based on where things currently stand? Probably not.
Verdict: Selling the decent chance Corbin Burnes gets dealt.
At Least 15 Teams Looking to Sign Tyler Glasnow?
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The Latest: "Interest in (Tyler) Glasnow has been strong, with at least half of the teams checking in; the Cubs, Braves and Dodgers are among the notable ones, and some AL East teams also inquired."—per Marc Topkin of Tampa Bay Times.
There are undoubtedly a bunch of teams interested in Tyler Glasnow. The right-hander has a 3.03 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP and a 12.5 K/9 dating back to the beginning of 2019.
Simply put, those are Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer types of numbers.
Even though he's an injury risk and even though he comes with a price tag of $25 million for just one season, demand is high.
Half of the league, though?
Maybe if we're counting the small-market teams who are asking the Rays how much of that salary they'd be willing to retain, and then immediately hanging up when they say they expect the new team to eat the full $25 million, but how many serious suitors do we think there are here?
In the AL, you've got Boston, New York, Houston and Texas as the definite candidates, with Baltimore, Detroit and Los Angeles as the maybes. And in the NL, Atlanta, Chicago, Cincinnati, Los Angeles, Milwaukee, New York and San Francisco likely all have a real desire to add Glasnow, plus Philadelphia, San Diego and St. Louis as teams that might be willing to take on another $25 million salary.
Without even really stretching, that's 17 teams.
Surely some have been more aggressive than others, and they will get more desperate if Glasnow is still with Tampa Bay after Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery have all signed. But, yeah, there's a robust trade market for one not cheap year of this ace.
Verdict: Buying half the league in on Glasnow.
Jung Hoo Lee to the Padres?
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The Latest: MLB Insider Jon Heyman wrote for New York Post Thursday night that "The Padres appear to be at the forefront of talks involving Korean free-agent CF Jung Hoo Lee."
Say this much about the rumor, the Padres sure do need a center fielder after including Trent Grisham in the Juan Soto trade.
At this point, their outfield situation is Fernando Tatis Jr. in right, José Azocar in center and, I don't know, 38-year-old DH Matt Carpenter in left?
The Tatis part is rock solid, but Azocar was worth 0.1 bWAR in each of his two MLB seasons and no one else on the roster has made more than 30 starts in the outfield, with Carpenter and Tucupita Marcano basically tied for next-most experience.
But after failing for 17 months to ever ink Soto to a long-term deal, are they really going to turn around and give Jung Hoo Lee a four-year or five-year contract?
Well, yeah, considering it's a drastically less expensive contract. Soto was going to cost them close to what Ohtani is going to get. They might be able to get Lee for something like five years and $85 million.
If they are unable to acquire the KBO star with a career .340 batting average, though, at least there are some other options out there. Got to figure they're not in the mix to spend over $100 million on Cody Bellinger, but Kevin Kiermaier, Harrison Bader and Michael A. Taylor would all be more than adequate replacements for Grisham's great glove and mediocre career .699 OPS.
Verdict: Buying Padres as serious suitor for Lee, though we'll see if they're willing and able to outbid San Francisco to get him.
Mets Have the Upper Hand in Pursuit of Yoshinobu Yamamoto?
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The Latest: Shortly after Yoshinobu Yamamoto was officially posted by the Orix Buffaloes, Mets owner Steve Cohen flew to Japan to meet with Yamamoto and his family, per SNY's Andy Martino.
Though we all have a grand time with our landing spots articles, so much of free-agent decision making boils down to who makes the best pitch and goes the extra mile to woo the player.
And Mets owner Steve Cohen went a lot of extra miles in his pursuit of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, meeting with the 25-year-old superstar pitcher on his home turf last week rather than waiting until Yamamoto makes his reported trip to the United States in the coming days.
Of course, those Wednesday reports came on the heels of The Athletic's Chris Kirschner reporting on Tuesday that the Yankees had a scout on hand for every single one of Yamamoto's games in 2023, and that they sent a collection of scouts to Japan every month to gather more information on him. That included GM Brian Cashman being in attendance when Yamamoto threw a no-hitter in September.
Cohen going to Japan and having a meal with Yamamoto and his family was newsworthy, but the Yankees planted their flag in the sweepstakes long before that.
The Mets do already have Kodai Senga and the idea of having a one-two punch of Japanese aces atop the rotation could be enticing to Yamamoto. But so could pitching alongside Gerrit Cole with run support from Aaron Judge and now Juan Soto.
It still feels like a toss-up, though, with The Athletic's Will Sammon reporting Wednesday that there are a total of seven teams still in the running as the main suitors for Yamamoto, adding the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants and two "mystery teams" to the mix.
If you're giving me Yankees/Mets vs. the field, I do think there's a strong chance Yamamoto ends up in New York. But does Cohen's trip to Japan make the Mets the favorite? I wouldn't go that far.
Verdict: Selling Mets as the front-runner for Yamamoto.
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