Early Predictions for Barkley, Ekeler and NFL's Top 2024 RB Free Agent, Trade Market
The 2024 NFL offseason will be an intriguing one when it comes to the league's top running backs. A slew of the position's most well-known stars are going to hit the the open market as free agents and several other elite backs stand out as potential trade candidates.
While some of these players will get franchise tagged or agree to contract extensions with their current employer, a good portion appear poised to sign new deals with competing franchises. Once the dust settles from this impending frenzy of running back movement, the league's landscape could look quite different.
With that in mind, read on for some early predictions on where these marquee running backs will play in 2024.
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
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Saquon Barkley shook off two injury plagued years and returned to prominence last season, carrying the New York Giants' offense on a surprise playoff run during the final year of his rookie deal. While he racked up 1,650 yards from scrimmage, 10 touchdowns and a Pro Bowl nod, he still failed to earn the long-term contract extension he coveted.
Given the tenuous contract negotiations and holdout that nearly lasted into August, it would be surprising if Barkley elects to return to New York in 2024. The team likely won't be too desperate to have him back on a market value deal—estimated to be nearly $7 million per season by Spotrac—either, as there is a huge question mark at the quarterback position and plenty of other issues plaguing this roster. Although Barkley has carried this offense for the last two years, it's clear his presence alone isn't enough to keep this squad competitive without a viable option under center.
Barkley is still averaging a respectable 4.2 yards per carry and has notched five touchdowns in nine games, but he's missed time with injury and hasn't been able to spark many victories for the 4-8 G-Men. He's remained a dynamic talent when healthy and can clearly contribute in all facets of the offense, but he'll be better utilized on a squad that has more capable receivers who can help take the defensive pressure off.
Prediction: Saquon Barkley signs with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
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The decision to not give Austin Ekeler a big-money extension was a shrewd one for the Los Angeles Chargers. The star running back is slogging through arguably his worst season as a professional while the team has fallen out of playoff contention. It's now looking exceedingly likely that this pairing will part ways when Ekeler hits the open market following seven seasons in L.A.
The Bolts held their ground when Ekeler demanded a trade during the offseason, giving him permission to seek out a deal before tacking a couple million in incentives onto the final year of his deal. With Ekeler averaging a career-low 3.8 yards per carry and missing time with an ankle injury, it's going to be interesting to see if any teams are willing to shell out for a fading back set to enter his age 29 campaign.
Ekeler is only a year removed from tallying up a career-best 1,637 yards from scrimmage and scoring 18 touchdowns—building on a 1,558-yard, 20-touchdown campaign in 2021—but he has also looked like a shell of that player. He's fumbled in each of the last two games and hasn't had more than 67 yards rushing in any game since the season opener. While Spotrac still estimates his market value to be $7.4 million annually, he'll be hard-pressed to get more than a one-year 'prove-it' deal after this backslide.
It makes sense for Ekeler to land with contending team willing to roll the dice on a return to form. There's no shortage of good teams lacking in salary cap space seeking solid running backs, especially ones who can be a game-changer in the passing game like Ekeler has been in years past.
Prediction: Austin Ekeler signs with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
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Derrick Henry has been the most consistent running back in football over the last six years, but his time with the Tennessee Titans hasn't resulted in much playoff success. Outside of an AFC Championship Game run in 2019—his first full season as Tennessee's starting back—the Titans haven't gotten past the Wild Card round since Henry began spearheading the offense. With the 4-7 Titans sitting in the AFC South basement and slogging through another lost season, it's looking like Henry may be on his way out this offseason.
Henry was surrounded by constant trade rumors throughout the offseason and leading up to this year's deadline. Despite a 1,538 rushing yard season in 2022 and similar production out of the gate in 2023, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that there was "not as much interest in him across the NFL because of his age, production, expiring contract and cost for the rest of this season". There should be plenty of clubs interesting in signing Henry when he hits the open market, however, as he's racked up 739 yards and six scores on 176 totes through the first 11 games and showed he still has something left in the tank as he approaches his 30th birthday.
Spotrac estimates Henry's market value to be $9.5 million annually, a step down from the four-year, $50 million extension he signed after his breakout 2019 campaign. With the Titans set to enter a rebuild centered around new starting quarterback Will Levis, it's hard to envision the team shelling out the type of cash it will take to keep the aging running back around.
Henry should look to land with a contending team—a Super Bowl title is one of the few accolades that still eluding the three-time Pro Bowler after eight professional seasons—that can pair him with a younger, more dynamic back to keep his workload down and reduce the wear-and-tear on his body.
Prediction: Derrick Henry signs with the Baltimore Ravens.
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Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
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Josh Jacobs claimed the rushing crown and established himself as one of the NFL's best backs last year. The Las Vegas Raiders star's follow-up to that sterling 1,653-yard, 12-touchdown campaign has been underwhelming, however, as he's struggling to get anything going during what has been a miserable campaign for his franchise.
The Raiders declined to give Jacobs a long-term deal after his breakout season. The team instead opted to franchise tag the 2019 first-round pick—a move that led to Jacobs' training camp holdout—before eventually coming to terms on a one-year contract worth up to $12 million in late-August. Vegas' cautious approach looks to have been the right one as the running back has tallied just 771 yards on 220 totes so far.
The team probably won't be bringing back a player on a market value deal estimated by Spotrac to be nearly $11 million per season. The Raiders will undergo some major re-tooling this offseason, starting by finding a replacement for fired head coach Josh McDaniels. Las Vegas also must figure out the quarterback position after the decision to sign veteran Jimmy Garoppolo failed to pan out.
While Jacobs is still finding the end zone somewhat regularly (he has six touchdowns on the year) and is flirting with a career-best showing as a pass-catcher—he has 35 receptions for 280 yards over the first 12 games—his market won't be too hot due to his meager 3.5 yards per carry. Jacobs looks primed to land with a non-contender for 2024, likely one flush with cap space that needs a ball carrier to shoulder a heavy load due to a lack of talent under center.
Prediction: Josh Jacobs signs with the New England Patriots.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
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The New Orleans Saints committed to Alvin Kamara through the 2025 season when they signed him to a five-year, $75 million contract extension back in 2020, but the relationship could run its course as early as this coming offseason. Kamara has been the subject of plenty of trade rumors over the last two years and it's well within the realm of possibility that he's finally dealt after the 2023 season wraps up.
While the Saints won't get a massive return for a 28-year-old running back who relies on his speed to dice up defenses, Kamara could still return a decent haul of draft capital. He's not been a major force on the ground—putting up 457 yards and two touchdowns on 119 totes across eight games this year—but he's still a dangerous pass-catcher, securing 54 catches on 61 targets for 355 yards and a score since returning from a three-game suspension in Week 4.
With Kamara having exhausted all the guaranteed money left on his contract, the Saints can part ways with the seventh-year veteran rather easily. The team also has a replacement waiting in the wings, having drafted rookie Kendre Miller back in April. He's the lead candidate to take over the backfield if Kamara is dealt, especially with offseason pickup Jamaal Williams failing to move the needle in the Big Easy.
Any team making a run at Kamara will likely feel its offense is a dynamic back away from contending for a championship. He may no longer be one of the NFL's most elusive talents, but Kamara can still contribute in a variety of ways and will be a constant scoring threat if he's utilized correctly by his next team.
Prediction: Alvin Kamara is traded to the Buffalo Bills.
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
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After four seasons of sparse utilization, the Dallas Cowboys felt comfortable enough with Tony Pollard's development to make him their feature back for the 2023 season. While he's fared decently well during his first 11 games in his expanded role, Pollard is averaging career-lows in both yards per carry and yards per reception.
Dallas has still managed to field a top-five offense and leads the league in scoring despite this slight regression from Pollard. While the starting back has posted a respectable 669 yards and four touchdowns on 160 totes, the No. 4 ranked passing offense is firing on all cylinders. Pollard has been helpful in this facet of the game, reeling in 39 receptions—already tying his career high—for 233 yards.
The Cowboys should be interested in keeping Pollard around once he hits free agency, but they likely won't want to keep paying him his current rate. The 26-year-old is taking home a shade over $10 million this season due to his franchise tag, but Spotrac has pegged his market value at a much lower $6.6 million per year.
If Pollard is willing to take less than he's currently making to remain in Dallas, it's possible this relationship continues into a sixth season and beyond. He's unlikely to get a blockbuster contract from another team due to his middling production this year. He fits well in this scheme and could bounce back to his pre-2023 form with some time off to fully recover from the lower leg injury he suffered during last season's playoffs.
Prediction: Tony Pollard re-signs with the Dallas Cowboys.
D'Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles
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The Philadelphia Eagles hit a home run when they brought in D'Andre Swift to help replace the free-agent loss of Miles Sanders this past offseason. Swift has been a revelation for this team's offense since he took over as the primary running back in Week 2, amassing a total of 770 yards and four touchdowns on the ground while adding 201 yards and a score on his 34 catches.
Philadelphia's only misstep was not extending Swift's contract after pried him away from the Detroit Lions in a low-cost trade. He's currently making just $1.8 million but is set to cash in on a major pay increase this coming offseason. Spotrac believes he'll earn something in the $5.4 million per year range, but he could ultimately make a good bit more if he continues playing at a high level while carrying the Eagles on a deep playoff run.
Swift had struggled with consistency earlier in his career, missing at least three games in each of his first three NFL seasons and only logging more than 50 percent of the offensive snaps once during his tenure in Detroit. He's managed to stay healthy in the City of Brotherly Love while seeing the field for 61 percent of the offensive plays as the main option in Philly's deep backfield.
Given his versatility and productivity, there should be plenty of squads eager to get Swift on their payroll this spring. The Eagles have been reticent to give out lengthy deals to running backs during Howie Roseman's time as general manager, but may have to break the mold to keep a player who fits their scheme so well. A franchise tag could also be in the cards if the Eagles—who are projected to have just $1.7 million in cap space going into the offseason—can find a way to fit it on the books.
Prediction: D'Andre Swift is franchise tagged by the Philadelphia Eagles.
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