2024 NFL Draft: Trade Scenarios and Best Prospect Fits for League's Worst Teams
Over the past two decades, Heisman Trophy winners have become synonymous with high draft picks. In fact, 17 of the past 20 winners heard their names called in the first round (safely assuming Caleb Williams is a future opening-frame selection), with seven going No. 1 overall.
This wasn't always the case, though. It may not be for the 2024 NFL draft.
Washington's Michael Penix Jr. is one of the favorites for this year's award. But the nation's leading passer finds himself on this week's trending-down list. Why? Bleacher Report scout Derrik Klassen delves into that very question here shortly.
Conversely, a slew of defenders balled out this past weekend to catch the eye of the rest of the B/R Scouting Department, which also consists of Brandon Thorn, Matt Holder and Cory Giddings.
Typically, this space also provides a weekly top-10 projection based on the updated draft slotting. This week's version will be a little different for the holiday season. We're in a giving mood.
As in, specific franchises should already be considering the possibility of trading down based on their current circumstances. Meanwhile, certain general managers should envision opportunities to trade up and address specific areas. Who should do what and for whom?
Follow along and see the teams currently found in the top 10 (and maybe a couple outside of that range) that need to be looking at all possibilities—even this early in the process.
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1. CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson
Clemson cornerback Nate Wiggins came up big against an explosive North Carolina Tar Heels offense and the presumptive QB1 in the 2024 class, Drake Maye.
Wiggins' fourth-quarter interception sealed the victory for the Tigers. Earlier in the contest, the defensive back hit warp speed and ran down Tar Heels running back Omarion Hampton before he crossed the goal line. Wiggins finished second on his team with seven tackles and defended another pass.
When Wiggins' play, hustle and natural skill set are all taken into account,
"The junior prospect had a great performance against North Carolina," Giddings said. "Though he experienced a slower start to the season, he continues to come on strong as the season progress. He's a cornerback with great length but a bit on the thinner side. Wiggins does display good patience when playing in press and uses his hands and length very well to disrupt receivers at the line of scrimmage.
"He still plays a little high at times and shows some hip tightness, with average vision and awareness which can lead to him losing leverage in the run game."
2. EDGE Javon Solomon, Troy
Seven sacks in two games can't be overlooked. Troy's Javon Solomon has been a terror in recents weeks, with standout performances against two in-state rivals, the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns and Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks.
The fifth-year junior is currently tied for third at the FBS level with 13 total sacks.
"Solomon is doing exactly what he needs to do as a non-Power Five prospect to stand out: He's producing and dominating his level of competition," Holder said. "If he maintains his current trajectory at an all-star game, his draft stock will continued to ascend.
"He does have one more year of eligibility if he wants to return to school and generate draft buzz versus bursting onto the scene later in the process. But he's definitely opened eyes as of late."
3. TE Jared Wiley, TCU
The top tight-end performance of the year now belongs to TCU's Jared Wiley, with seven receptions for 178 yards and two touchdowns this past weekend against the Baylor Bears.
The senior prospect set season-highs in receiving yards for three straight weeks, though he didn't eclipse 65 yards prior to Week 12.
The production is nice. However, he tight end's combination of size and speed is what really makes him an intriguing option.
"Wiley can run," Klassen said. "At 6'7" and 260 pounds, a person might expect Wiley to be a big lug who functions more as a contested-catch weapon. That description could not be further from the truth.
"Wiley is at his best when he can stride out, whether that's underneath as a shallow runner or down the field as a seam-stretcher. He needs to iron out the finer parts of his game, like route-running and how to play through contact. Even so, there just aren't many tight ends with Wiley's size who run the way he does."
4. CB Ricardo Hallman, Wisconsin
A redshirt sophomore can take some time before he's fully on the radar as a legitimate draft prospect, because seniors or high-regarded juniors take precedent during the evaluation process.
Special talents still assert themselves, as Wisconsin's Ricardo Hallman has as one of the nation's best cover corners.
"The underclassman is a twitchy cornerback who lacks ideal height (5'10")," Giddings said. "Hallman triggers quickly to the run and screen games, with the short-area burst to quickly close in on ball-carriers. He plays with great change-of-direction, putting his foot into the ground and driving out of breaks. His speed allows him to stick to a receivers' hip pockets. He's a ball hawk, too, who can run routes for receivers.
"While Hallman does gamble at times, causing him some issues especially with double moves, he constantly competes at a high level."
5. EDGE Jack Sawyer, Ohio State
Jack Sawyer entered this season as the lesser of the two defensive end prospects on the Ohio State Buckeyes roster. He probably still is from a draft standpoint. But he showed out this past weekend against the Minnesota Golden Gophers with 3.5 tackles for loss and a sack.
Sawyer made a statement that he's worth a long look opposite teammate JT Tuimoloau.
"The former 5-star recruit stumbled out of the gate this season," Holder said, "but he's picked it back up in the second half of the year.
"This past weekend against Minnesota proved to be a dominant performance as the Buckeye was consistently getting pressure and creating havoc in the backfield. Sawyer's a physical presence on the defensive line who should be a good Day 2 target during draft weekend."
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1. QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington
The Washington Huskies are fun to watch, especially their offense with quarterback Michael Penix Jr. pulling the strings. Despite leading the nation's third-ranked team, putting up top-notch passing numbers and being counted among the Heisman Trophy favorites, his game doesn't necessarily translate as well as others in the same conversation.
His weight distribution creates an overreliance on pure arm strength, and the quarterback clearly struggles greatly against pressure. Those are but two concerns. More can be seen after he completed 52.8 percent of his passes during the past two games.
"The past two weeks have been a useful look at Michael Penix's accuracy issues," Klassen said. "In both games, Penix survived on shot plays down the field to his two jump-ball machines, Rome Odunze and Ja'Lynn Polk. Timing-based concepts in the underneath area and touch throws outside the numbers have both escaped Penix. He is a unique thrower with a slow wind-up, which can make short throws inconsistent. This sixth-year senior's low release also makes him a one-speed thrower, sapping him of the ability to add touch and arc when necessary.
"Penix is still a viable quarterback prospect thanks to his arm talent and aggression. But he shouldn't be viewed as a first-round prospect."
2. WR Xavier Worthy, Texas
Sometimes good enough isn't quite good enough.
Texas' Xavier Worthy has carried a first-round grade through most of this year's process. He posted two excellent performances in back-to-back weeks against the TCU Horned Frogs and Iowa State Cyclones, where he contributed 214 receiving yards.
Others around the nation are playing better and deserving of a little more attention based on their overall skill sets, though.
"Every draft season includes players who fall not necessarily because they got worse," Klassen said, "but because the rest of the class around them stepped up and solidified themselves. That's where Worthy sits.
"Worthy is still an exceptional speed-threat with quick feet as a route-runner. He just isn't as complete and physically impressive as certain other prospects.
"At 6'1" and 172 pounds, the junior prospect is dangerously thin, and it hurts him quite a bit when playing the ball in traffic and at the catch point."
3. OT Amarius Mims, Georgia
No prospect has experienced quite the ups and downs of Georgia's Amarius Mims, at least in this space.
The 6'7", 340-pound blocker opened the season strongly as a first-time, full-time starter. An ankle injury derailed that promising start. Mims is back in the lineup, but the raw nature to his game creates concern. He may not be ready to make the leap to the professional ranks.
"Mims played two games since his Tightrope surgery and struggled with his technique against Tennessee this past weekend, specifically in pass-protection with oversetting that led to losing across his face a few different times," Thorn said. "He fell off of multiple blocks in the run game as well.
"Mims' size, ease of movement and natural strength is evident. But his lack of polish is as well and will need to show some improvement as the year progresses to help quiet some concerns about him being ready to start right away as a rookie."
4. WR Jamari Thrash, Louisville
Jamari Thrash made a seamless transition into Power Five play after four seasons with the Georgia State Panthers. He became the type of playmaker Louisville needed on the outside, helping the Cardinals work their way up the rankings.
However, Thrash's performance took a dip over the past two weeks with four total catches for 29 yards, though he has dealt with a hand injury.
"If Thrash is going to play through injury, he must produce more to establish himself as a top-100 pick," Klassen said. "At his best, the fifth-year senior plays with ample speed and eye-popping twitch to excel as both a route-runner and ball-carrier.
"Those traits and better production need to show up again in two big upcoming games against the Kentucky Wildcats and Florida State Seminoles."
5. CB Cooper DeJean, Iowa
Iowa's Cooper DeJean was well on his way to becoming a first-round pick in the 2024 NFL draft. He graded as such through the past three months. Unfortunately, Iowa announced the standout defensive back suffered a season-ending lower-leg injury during a practice session last week.
DeJean still classifies as a junior and may decide to return to Iowa for another season.
"DeJean was having an excellent season before the injury," Giddings said. "He excelled as a dynamic punt returner and physical presence roaming the Iowa secondary. He's an athletically gifted defensive back with versatility to play at multiple spots in defensive backfield. He showed to have the size, speed, and ball skills needed to make him an early round pick.
"After the injury, we must see what his timeline looks like for recovery. If he is set to be fully healthy before or early enough in the season, he may be able to slip into the earlier rounds. For now, the assumption is his draft stock took a significant hit until further details are revealed."
1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina)
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Why the Bears Should Trade Down
The Chicago Bears could turn last year's trade with the Carolina Panthers into a yearslong boon to build a better roster.
Thanks for Carolina's insistence to move up for Bryce Young, the team no longer owns its own first-round pick, which is devastating considering the Panthers are worse today than they were a year ago, and Young hasn't looked like a franchise savior.
Now, the Bears could stand pat and take a top quarterback prospect. That possibility remains on the table. Or, Chicago could stick with Justin Fields and continue to build around him while adding windfall of picks, particularly after moving its second-round selection to acquire edge-rusher Montez Sweat.
Last year's deal gave Chicago its leading receiver, D.J. Moore, two first-round picks and a pair of second-round selections. More can be added to build a groundswell of young talent and make the Bears more competitive overall.
Chicago can pick up Fields' fifth-round rookie option next offseason, play out the rest of his contract and add significant talent, specifically if this particular trade-down doesn't involve a drastic move toward the bottom of the top 10.
Which Team Should Trade Up? — New England Patriots
The New England Patriots haven't been bad enough to "earn" a top-five pick since selecting Willie McGinest fourth overall in 1994. They currently own the third overall pick. It's an ideal spot to leapfrog to the top of the draft and select their preferred quarterback prospect.
Obviously, the Patriots' season has been a massive disappointment. Owner Robert Kraft hasn't been quiet about his displeasure, either. The Patriots clearly don't have the roster to compete at a high level anymore, starting with the quarterback position.
Mac Jones is a competent starting option if everything around him is going well. But it's been blatantly clear this season that he's not a quarterback capable of elevating inferior talent as he crumples under the pressure.
One horrific season can be used as a catalyst to make a bold move and slingshot the squad back to relevancy.
Target: QB Drake Maye, North Carolina
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2. Arizona Cardinals
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Why the Cardinals Should Trade Down
With Kyler Murray looking like the same quarterback upon his return to the lineup after suffering a torn ACL, the thought of the Arizona Cardinals restarting at the game's most important position lessens with each passing week.
Considering the first overall pick will almost surely be a quarterback, the Cardinals will hold significant leverage if they ultimately find themselves as owners of the second selection.
The 2024 draft class potentially features two elite quarterback prospects in North Carolina's Drake Maye and USC's Caleb Williams. While Maye has overtaken Williams in recent weeks, the latter's talent will keep him in the mix to be a top pick.
As long as the Cardinals are comfortable with Murray, this selection can be traded to a quarterback-starved franchise willing to pay a premium. In doing so, the Cardinals can start supplementing the league's worst roster.
Maybe Arizona will strongly consider a truly special talent in Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. Otherwise, there's absolutely no reason for the Cardinals to stand pat when they can add valuable assets and make their team better in multiple areas.
Which Team Should Trade Up? — Atlanta Falcons
Once again, the Atlanta Falcons are in position to select among the top 10 picks. At this point, everyone should just expect them to draft yet another skill position player who won't be utilized properly.
After selecting Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson in back-to-back-to-back classes, it's time for the organization to finally pull the trigger and address quarterback.
Despite the aforementioned talent, the Falcons are held back by those behind center. It finally reached the point where Arthur Smith benched starter Desmond Ridder in favor of backup Taylor Heinicke, who subsequently suffered a hamstring injury and placed Ridder back into the lineup.
The Falcons have been ranked among the bottom thrid of the league in pass offense since Smith became head coach. A major shakeup is necessary, and finally landing a top-notch quarterback prospect will go a long way to finally maximizing the talent found on Atlanta's roster.
Target: QB Caleb Williams, USC
5. New York Giants
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Why the Giants Should Trade Down
The New York Giants could find them in an odd position where they need help at specific spots, but they don't necessarily coincide with the top of the 2024 class.
Big Blue's future at quarterback will almost certainly be a major discussion point, though it's hard to envision the organization giving up on Daniel Jones after handing him a four-year, $160 million contract extension this past offseason.
Something similar can be said at offensive tackle, where the organization invested a pair of top-seven picks into both spots. Maybe the G-men decide to take another offensive tackle and move Evan Neal to guard. If not, the value at this spot isn't great for the team, particularly if Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr. is snapped up within the first three or four selections—which he most certainly should.
Even someone like Georgia tight end Brock Bowers, who holds an elite grade, can be viewed a redundant because of Darren Waller's presence on the roster.
As such, a trade-down will probably offer the Giants a little more flexibility while adding more picks to the mix.
Which Team Should Trade Up? — Washington Commanders
A trade between divisional rivals doesn't happen often. In this particular case, it's beneficial to both.
With the Giants looking to move down but not too far and the Commanders potentially trying to leapfrog the Tennessee Titans, a simple swap should be in place.
It wasn't too long ago that the Philadelphia Eagles traded with the hated Dallas Cowboys, and the two franchises landed DeVonta Smith and Micah Parsons, respectively.
With the Chicago Bears owning a pair of top-five picks, even in the event a potential trade-down, an offensive lineman may be earmarked for the Windy City. Penn State's Olumuyiwa Fashanu will likely be the first tackle prospect off the board.
Since the Titans own the pick directly ahead of the Commanders, Washington can swallow its pride and make a deal to move up a couple selections and land another top blocker since Sam Howell is the league's most sacked quarterback by wide margin.
The second-round selection Washington acquired as part of the Montez Sweat deal at the trade deadline will be an enticing option to dangle.
Target: OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Why the Buccaneers Should Trade Down
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers just may find themselves in a very difficult position at the end end of the top 10.
Other teams higher in the order are positioned better to trade up for one of the top quarterback prospects. Maybe the Bucs enter that mix and grossly overpay for right to select one. But it's entirely dependent on those organizations near the top and how far they want to move down in the order.
If Tampa Bay stands pat, it becomes a target.
Other quarterback-needy teams will see the Buccaneers as an obstacle for their favorite prospect. A trade could be concocted to make sure another organization gets their signal-caller of the future, even if it's viewed as a desperate move. More importantly, a team should want to find solid value.
At this juncture, a third quarterback prospect hasn't emerged to warrant another top-10 selection. Tampa Bay shouldn't force matters.
As such, the best possible outcome for the Buccaneers based on those scenarios is a trade down where they can possibly get better value at multiple different positions.
Which Team Should Trade Up? — Los Angeles Rams
For once, the Los Angeles Rams almost have their entire allotment of original draft picks, with an extra sixth-rounder thrown into the mix thanks to the Kenny Young trade.
The Rams' recent history of aggressive trades is well-documented. But those tended to involve established veterans. In this case, a similar approach could apply in order to provide the team's defense with a significant boost.
Currently, Los Angeles ranks among the bottom eight teams with only 21 sacks through 10 games. Rookie Byron Young has been an excellent addition as this year's initial third-round selection. He's currently half a sack behind the great Aaron Donald for the team lead.
But another edge is necessary to make the Rams' defensive front more complete. Fortunately, a handful of options should be available, particularly the most polished option of the bunch.
With Donald and quarterback Matthew Stafford set to be 33 or older next season, the window on this Rams team is closing quickly, and the addition of a top pass-rusher would certainly help.
Target: EDGE Laiatu Latu, UCLA
10. New York Jets
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Why the Jets Should Trade Down
Whether Aaron Rodgers returns from an Achilles tendon injury this season or not, the New York Jets are all-in with the future Hall of Fame quarterback.
That's perfectly fine. The organization felt he was the missing piece all along. Unless Rodgers decides to step away from the game after this season, he'll almost certainly be the Jets' starter in 2024.
As has been the case ever year, the best path forward is building around the four-time NFL MVP, which the Packers failed to effectively do, at least to the quarterback's liking.
A potential trade-down seems counterintuitive. It's not.
As discussed earlier, the elite talent tier should already be off the board in its entirety by the time the 10th pick is officially on the clock. A trade-down won't force a dip in overall quality based on the projected talent pool.
Second, the Jets can move down and recoup a second-round pick, which they originally surrendered as part of the Rodgers trade.
By moving down and gaining another Day 2 asset (and possibly more), the Jets can do a better job making sure they maximize Rodgers' final year(s).
Which Team Should Trade Up? — Indianapolis Colts
Chris Ballard hasn't traded up in the first round since taking over as the Indianapolis Colts' general manager in 2017. However, the Colts reached the point where a pinch of aggressiveness should serve the franchise well.
Despite this year's season-ending shoulder injury, the belief within the organization is that Indianapolis have its quarterback of the future in Anthony Richardson. He can't have too much talent around him.
Washington's Rome Odunze is a Ballard pick all day long, because the general manager believes in drafting elite athletic traits. The junior wide receiver certainly the build.
"Odunze, 6-2, 216 pounds, was a terrific high school sprinter at Vegas powerhouse Bishop Gorman who won the 4A state title in the 200 meters (21.25) and the 4×100 relay (41.36)," The Athletic's Bruce Feldman wrote. "This offseason, Odunze ran a 4.34 40, a 4.19 pro agility shuttle and also did 37.1 inches on the vertical and 10-1 in the broad jump."
With or without Michael Pittman Jr., who is a pending free agent, the Colts should do everything in their power to help in Richardson's development.
Target: WR Rome Odunze, Washington
Top 10 Projection with Trades
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For those keeping track of the proposed trades and how things would fall...
1. New England Patriots (from Chicago): QB Drake Maye, North Carolina
2. Atlanta Falcons (from Arizona): QB Caleb Williams, USC
3. Chicago Bears (from New England): WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
4. Chicago Bears: OT Olu Fashanu, Penn State
5. Washington Commanders (from New York Giants): OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame
6. Tennessee Titans: TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
7. New York Giants (from Washington): WR Keon Coleman, Florida State
8. Arizona Cardinals (from Atlanta): EDGE Jared Verse, Florida State
9. Los Angeles Rams (from Tampa Bay): EDGE Laiatu Latu, UCLA
10. Indianapolis Colts (from New York Jets): WR Rome Odunze, Washington
EDITOR'S NOTE: This order is based on the records prior to the start of Friday's action.
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