Where Do Josh Allen and C.J. Stroud Rank Among NFL's Top QBs Entering Week 11?
Prior to the 2023 NFL regular season, there was a perception that Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen was a legitimate MVP candidate with a chance to take that team on a Super Bowl run. And Allen had certainly earned that with two Pro Bowl nods, a second-team All-Pro honor, and even some Offensive Player of the Year and MVP votes in 2020 and 2022.
Meanwhile, because the draft continues to be the ultimate professional sports crapshoot, nobody knew what to expect from rookie Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud. The No. 2 overall pick was a star at Ohio State but had his work cut out for him with a rebuilding Texans team coming off a 13-loss season.
And yet, Allen has been extremely disappointing thus far for the slumping, 5-5 Bills, while Stroud had put together one of the most astonishing rookie campaigns in NFL history for the 5-4 Texans.
It's classic NFL.
With a focus on the wild shifts for those two passers in particular, let's take an updated look at the pecking order among the league's 32 regular starters through 10 weeks this season.
* Includes injured players who are regular starters, except in the case of Aaron Rodgers who has practically been out all season.
The TBD
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Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts: The 2023 No. 4 overall pick threw just 84 passes before a shoulder injury cost him the majority of his rookie campaign. There's no way to draw any conclusions just yet.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: The former top pick looked strong in his season debut Sunday, but he'll also need time to prove doubters right or wrong.
Aidan O'Connell, Las Vegas Raiders: It's hard to have much hope considering general poor play thus far from a rookie middle-round pick with the odds stacked against him, but he's still just three starts into his career.
Will Levis, Tennessee Titans: The rookie relieved Ryan Tannehill with a bang before coming back to earth, so the next few starts should be telling for a second-round pick with three starts under his belt.
The Ugly
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28. Daniel Jones, New York Giants: The league's lowest-rated qualified passer threw two touchdown passes to six interceptions in six games before suffering a season-ending knee injury.
27. Zach Wilson, New York Jets: The other New York quarterback has performed slightly better than Jones on paper but actually has a worse success rate and has generally lacked play-making ability all year long. Watch for both Jones and Wilson to be afterthoughts well before the 2025 season has arrived.
The Bad
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26. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: The numbers aren't as horrific as the New York guys, but a league-low 58.7 completion rate speaks volumes. Love might be one-and-done as a starter in Green Bay.
25. Taylor Heinicke, Atlanta Falcons: The veteran usual-backup is 4-for-16 with a 35.2 passer rating on deep attempts, which is just ridiculously bad. The answer at quarterback doesn't exist on the Falcons roster.
24. Mac Jones, New England Patriots: This isn't much prettier in that respect, as the third-year first-round disappointment has completed just 13 of 50 deep passes in 10 games. He's running out of time.
23. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers: I suppose he's still only a sophomore but Pickett just doesn't really...do anything?
22. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers: We're giving some benefit of the doubt to the somewhat raw rookie No. 1 overall pick, who has a bottom-five passer rating and ranks ahead of only interim Bears starter Tyson Bagent with just 2.7 completed air yards per pass attempt.
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The Mediocre
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21. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: That 52.7 passer rating on third down is really hurting a veteran who is trying to prove 2022 wasn't a fluke.
20. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: The sample's a little smaller thus far this year and only Jones has been under more pressure than Fields when the third-year first-round pick has been healthy, but there still hasn't been enough progress in terms of production through the air.
19. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Somewhat quietly, Mayfield ranks near the top of the league with a 107.7 passer rating on third down. The former top pick has also fared well in the second half of one-score games and on deep passes, while his more broad rate-based stats have been solid as well. Maybe there's still hope for him.
18. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: The Rams have become somewhat of a mess and now Stafford's hurt. His track record helps, but a 64.5 passer rating in the second half of one-score games is still indicative of things not being right. Is he toast at the age of 35?
17. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: Maybe we're being too hard on Allen considering his track record, but what the hell is going on? Dude is extremely well-supported in that offense and is just making mistake after mistake. His league-high 11 interceptions are a big reason the Bills have been such an utter flop in 2023.
16. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints: Carr still doesn't make many mistakes, but he doesn't really win you games. He's just...there.
15, Sam Howell, Washington Commanders: The progress is hard to miss for a first-year starter with average stats across the board but room to grow with the right amount of support.
The Good
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14. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: He's had an up-and-down season for an AFC contender, but his pedigree and solid overall numbers keep him within reaching distance of elite.
13. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: He's had an up-and-down season for an AFC contender, but his past success and solid overall numbers keep him within reaching distance of elite.
12. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: He's had an up-and-down season for an AFC contender, but his track record, season trajectory and solid overall numbers keep him within reaching distance of elite.
11. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos: The nine-time Pro Bowler may be the league's fourth-highest-rated passer with an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-pick ratio, but he's been on target with a league-low 67.8 percent of his throws and it has shown. The numbers are better than the product we've all witnessed.
10. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings: A historical lack of consistency holds him back, but before tearing his Achilles the veteran was on fire with an 18-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio along with an NFL-best 136.0 passer rating on deep balls.
9. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: The league's top-graded quarterback at Pro Football Focus has a turnover-worthy play rate of just 1.7 percent, which is tops among qualified passers. He might not dazzle but he's good enough to take a team like Detroit deep.
8. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: The NFL's fifth-ranked qualified quarterback in terms of QBR has a phenomenal 110.5 passer rating in the second half of one-score games.
7. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: He's come back to earth a tad of late, and he might seem like a game manager at times, but the second-year seventh-round pick still leads the league in passer rating, QBR and success rate. He just needs to get better in key moments.
The Elite
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6. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: He still has his doubt-producing moments, but Prescott's rate-based numbers are in the top handful in pretty much every area. He ranks No. 1 in the league with an on-target throw rate of 83.8 percent.
5. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: He'll have to keep proving himself more and more as defenses gain more tape and better game plan for what he brings to the table, but there's no denying Stroud has already become an elite quarterback. His 15-to-2 touchdown-to-pick ratio speaks for itself, and he ranks second to only Purdy with 4.8 completed air yards per attempt.
4. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: Stroud has been more big plays than Jackson this season, but the former MVP has still looked better than ever as a passer and remains the game's top mobile threat under center. If he can stay healthy, he'll be back in the MVP mix for a potential top seed.
3. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: Miami's inability to beat fellow contenders hurts Tagovailoa. He simply had to be better in Kansas City, Philadelphia and Buffalo. That said, his 105.9 passer rating since the start of 2022 leads all quarterbacks who have started at least 20 games in that span.
2. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: He's been better than Patrick Mahomes this season and is thus the MVP favorite thanks to 22 passing/rushing touchdowns in nine games, but eight interceptions and Mahomes' track record keep Hurts in the runner-up spot here.
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: The highest-rated passer in NFL history is the reigning MVP. He hasn't been himself this year with questionable support, but he still leads the AFC in QBR. He gets the benefit of the doubt for now.
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