Best Scheme Fits and Projected Contracts for Top 2024 NFL Free Agents
With eight weeks remaining in the 2023 NFL season, plenty of teams still have their eyes on the playoff race. Others, however, are already looking ahead to the upcoming offseason and 2024 free agency.
Rebuilding teams like the 1-8 Carolina Panthers and 2-8 New England Patriots may take a volume approach to free agency as they look to overhaul their rosters. The very best free agents, however, are likely to interest most teams that can afford them.
Most does not mean all, though. Time and time again, we've seen good players land in ill-fitting situations to become free-agent busts. Pro Bowl running back Miles Sanders is a great recent example, as his tenure with Carolina thus far has been underwhelming at best.
What sorts of schemes and situations would best fit the top impending 2024 free agents? Let's break it down for the top 10 remaining free agents on our 2024 board, dive into contract expectations and identify some potential landing spots.
10. CB L'Jarius Sneed
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Best Scheme: Blitz-Heavy Man Defense
The 2024 free-agent class is loaded with defensive talent, and in a different year, Kansas City Chiefs cornerback L'Jarius Sneed would be closer to the top. The 26-year-old has been simply fantastic this season, allowing an opposing passer rating of just 59.1 in coverage.
While many top cornerbacks thrive in zone coverage or play one side of the field, the Chiefs have traditionally played him in man coverage against opponents' No. 1 receiving options.
"We put LJ on whoever's the best receiver," safety Justin Reid said, per The Athletic's Nate Taylor.
Sneed's ability to excel in man coverage is aided by Kansas City's tendency to pressure quarterbacks at a high rate. Top-tier receivers will eventually break free of coverage, but Sneed can shadow almost anyone for the first few seconds of a play. Against the Chiefs, who have blitzed 33.7 percent of the time this season, quarterbacks don't usually have more than a few seconds to throw.
Schematically, Sneed would be a great fit for the Pittsburgh Steelers, who finished last season with the fifth-highest rate of man coverage, according to Sports Info Solutions. With T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith regularly pressuring quarterbacks, Pittsburgh could allow Sneed to continue playing at a Pro Bowl level.
While the Washington Commanders tend to mix zone and man coverage, they could use a man cover corner of Sneed's caliber, and they lead the league in projected 2024 cap space That's a relevant factor because Sneed has a projected market value of $7.4 million annually.
Contract Projection: Four Years, $30 Million
9. QB Kirk Cousins
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Best Scheme: Motion-Heavy, Spacing-Based Offense
While Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins recently suffered a season-ending Achilles tear, he remains the top quarterback headed to the 2024 market. He finished his season with 2,331 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, five interceptions and a 103.8 quarterback rating.
According to ESPN's Rich Cimini, a typical recovery timeframe for Cousins' injury is between six and nine months.
Cousins played some of the best football of his career this season under head coach Kevin O'Connell, who carried over several concepts from the Sean McVay offense. Like McVay, O'Connell looks to get pass-catchers into space by utilizing pre-snap motion and multiple-receiver sets.
There is no shortage of teams that have tried to emulate McVay's success with the Los Angeles Rams, and any team taking a chance on the 35-year-old Cousins would presumably be willing to adapt.
Given his age, Cousins' market will likely be determined by demand. Teams who need a quarterback and otherwise have a playoff-caliber roster will be his top suitors. The Atlanta Falcons are high on the list since they seem to have soured on Desmond Ridder. Given the disappointing play of Daniel Jones this season, the New York Giants might also be interested, though the prospect of carrying two large QB contracts would be prohibitive.
Expect Cousins to land a deal similar to Derek Carr's with the New Orleans Saints—Carr signed a four-year, $150 million deal this past offseason.
Contract Projection: Three Years, $113 Million
8. LB Devin White
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Best Scheme: Nickel-Heavy 3-4 Base
Devin White projects as the top off-ball linebacker in the 2024 free-agent class. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers star does a little bit of everything well and will be only 26 years old at the start of free agency.
So far this season, White has accumulated 60 tackles, two sacks and an interception. In coverage, he's allowed an opposing passer rating of only 68.0.
Todd Bowles' defense, which uses a 3-4 base with a lot of nickel coverage mixed in, fits White's skill set perfectly.
White is allowed to play away from the line of scrimmage, where his smallish 6'0", 237-pound frame is less of a liability. With Lavonte David also manning the middle of the field, the Buccaneers can switch White's assignment between coverage and run support.
The Los Angeles Chargers could be an ideal landing spot for White. L.A. uses a 3-4 base defense and could offer White another solid inside-linebacker running mate in Eric Kendricks—White would replace impending free agent Kenneth Murray in Los Angeles.
The Steelers also use a lot of 3-4 looks and would probably love to have a versatile linebacker like White between Watt and Highsmith.
When eyeing White's 2024 market value, the five-year, $100 million deal that Roquan Smith signed this past offseason is a good place to start.
Contract Projection: Five Years, $101 Million
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7. CB Jaylon Johnson
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Best Scheme: Zone-Leaning Combo Coverage
Chicago Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson projects as the top cornerback headed to the 2024 market. Chicago considered trading the 24-year-old at the deadline but opted to keep him, and Johnson has turned his attention away from seeking a contract extension.
"Just want to continue to stack the season," Johnson said, per Josh Schrock of NBC Sports Chicago.
Johnson is having a tremendous season despite playing on a middling Bears defense. He has two interceptions, one defensive touchdown and is allowing an opposing passer rating of just 60.4 in coverage.
While Chicago does mix its coverages—as teams typically do—head coach Matt Eberflus has traditionally leaned on a zone defense—Chicago ran zone 55 percent of the time last season, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Johnson would be a great fit for the Miami Dolphins and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, whose system emphasizes light boxes and disguised zone coverages. The San Francisco 49ers are another zone-heavy team that could use a top-tier corner on the back end.
While Johnson has a projected market value of $17.5 million annually, he might command more than that on the open market. He has stated that he wants to be paid like a top-tier cover corner, and Jaire Alexander leads all NFL cornerbacks with an annual salary of $21 million.
Contract Projection: Five Years, $97.5 Million
6. WR Tee Higgins
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Best Scheme: Pass-Heavy Offense with One Established Perimeter Threat
Injuries have limited Cincinnati Bengals wideout Tee Higgins this season, but the 24-year-old oozes proven production and potential. Higgins caught 74 passes for 1,029 yards last season and topped 900 yards in each of his first three campaigns.
In Cincinnati's shotgun-based, pass-heavy, spacing-based offense—Zac Taylor is another McVay disciple—Higgins has served as the second option behind Ja'Marr Chase. While a few teams are likely to view Higgins as a potential No. 1 receiver, he'd be best served by landing with a team that has one other proven perimeter option.
Higgins has a good combination of size (6'4", 219 lbs) and speed (4.54-second 40-yard dash), but he might not be explosive enough to consistently beat double coverage. This doesn't mean he can't be a top target, but he'll have more value if he isn't a team's only downfield receiving threat.
The Cleveland Browns could provide Higgins with a fantastic running mate in Amari Cooper, who, like Higgins, wins with route running and reliable hands more than pure speed.
The Carolina Panthers could look to pair Higgins with Adam Thielen as part of a support system for Bryce Young—though it would behoove Carolina to utilize more pre-snap motion to isolate Young's first read.
While Higgins' recent injury history may limit his market value some, he should still command substantially more than the three-year, $33 million deal Jakobi Meyers signed this past offseason.
Contract Projection: Four Years, $64 Million
5. Edge Brian Burns
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Best Scheme: 3-4 Base Defense
Panthers pass-rusher Brian Burns has gotten plenty of attention as a potential trade target over the past two years. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported last year that Carolina turned down a package of two first-round picks and a second-rounder from the Rams.
Burns had 12.5 sacks in 2022 and has five sacks so far this year. Expect him to command plenty of attention on free-agent market, though he probably won't interest every pass-rusher-needy team.
While Burns isn't exactly small, he's a bit on the thinner side at 6'5" and 250 pounds. He relies more on his quickness and bend than on power and can struggle to take on double teams.
Burns' best fit will come in a 3-4 base defense, like the Rams, that can allow him to rush from a wide angle and avoid having to set the edge in run support.
Los Angeles would be a terrific landing spot for Burns, as would the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee uses a 3-4 base, has a tremendous defensive interior headlined by Jeffery Simmons and could use a dedicated edge opposite Harold Landry.
Burns has a projected market value of $23.4 million annually, though it won't be a shock if his contract comes in a little lower than that. It's going to be a pass-rusher-rich market, and Burns is not the most versatile sack artist headed to free agency.
Contract Projection: Four Years, $92 Million
4. Edge Danielle Hunter
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Best Scheme: Attacking 3-4 Base Defense
From a production standpoint, Danielle Hunter is the top edge-rusher scheduled to reach free agency. The Minnesota Vikings standout has already logged 11 sacks and 18 quarterback pressures this season.
Hunter should interest any team with pass-rushing needs and a fair amount of cap space because he is a scheme-versatile defender. He has experience rushing from the defensive end spot and as a linebacker, although he's having a career season under first-year Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores.
Flores' system utilizes a three-man front that allows Hunter to come off the edge as a dedicated pressure man. Disguised blitzes have been a big part of Flores' strategy this season, and no team has blitzed at a higher rate.
Ideally, Hunter will land in another system that allows him to freely rush the passer while using varied blitz packages to get him one-on-one with a single blocker. According to NFL Next Gen Stats (h/t ESPN's Seth Walder), Hunter came into Week 10 seeing a slightly above-average double-team rate and a slightly below-average pass-rush win rate.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers use a similar scheme, looking to isolate Shaq Barrett and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka. If Tampa could fit Hunter into the rotation, it would be a perfect landing spot for him outside of Minnesota.
The Detroit Lions also use a three-man front with Aidan Hutchinson as a dedicated rush linebacker. Hunter would be a great fit there as a complement to Hutchinson and James Houston, the latter of whom is on injured reserve with a fractured ankle.
Contract-wise, the four-year, $98 million extension that Montez Sweat just signed with the Chicago Bears is probably a starting point for the 29-year-old Hunter.
Contract Projection: Four Years, $110 Million
3. Edge Josh Allen
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Best Scheme: 3-4 Base Defense
Jacksonville Jaguars pass-rusher Josh Allen narrowly tops Danielle Hunter because he's nearly three years younger and entered Week 10 with a higher pass-rush win rate.
At 6'5" and 255 pounds, Allen has a great combination of size, length and speed, and he does have experience rushing as a defensive end and as a linebacker. However, he's been most productive serving as a rush linebacker, which he did as a rookie Pro Bowler in 2019 and is doing again this year.
Allen has already accumulated nine sacks and 26 quarterback pressures this year. That's particularly impressive because Jacksonville hasn't paired him with an attention-grabbing complementary pass-rusher.
Given his age, Allen may interest rebuilding teams a bit more than Hunter, which could put a team like the Arizona Cardinals in the mix.
Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon and defensive coordinator Nick Rallis use a combination of 3-4 base looks and 4-2-5 subpackages that closely resemble Vic Fangio's defenses. Allen would be a great fit as a dedicated edge in either package.
If the Rams don't again target or fail to land Brian Burns, they could be another solid landing spot for Allen.
Expect Allen to land a contract close to the market-setting five-year, $170 million deal that Nick Bosa signed with the San Francisco 49ers this past offseason.
Contract Projection: Five Years, $160 Million
2. DT Christian Wilkins
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Best Scheme: Multi-Front or 3-4 Base
Miami Dolphins defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has accentuated the ability of arguably the league's most underrated defender, Christian Wilkins. With a 3-4 base that allows the 6'4", 310-pound defensive lineman to play on the edge, we've gotten to see just how athletic and fluid he is as a pass-rusher.
Wilkins has already recorded 4.5 sacks and 16 quarterback pressures this season. He had only 3.5 sacks and 15 pressures across all 17 games last year.
When Miami shifts to four-man fronts, Wilkins can play inside, serving as an interior rusher and run stopper. The 27-year-old has also recorded 38 tackles, 19 solo stops and five tackles for loss.
To this point, Wilkins has never earned a Pro Bowl nod. That should change this year, though.
While Wilkins should fit into just about any scheme, teams willing to use different alignments and move him around the formation are likely to get the most value from signing him. The Cleveland Browns have adapted to just such a scheme under Jim Schwartz this season.
While Schwartz uses a 4-3 base look, he's willing to move defenders like Myles Garrett and Shelby Harris inside and out. Cleveland could eye Wilkins as a replacement for Harris, who is playing on a one-year deal.
The Arizona Cardinals would be another logical landing spot, given the similarities between Fangio and Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon's defensive schemes.
The four-year, $90 million deal that Daron Payne signed with the Washington Commanders this past offseason should serve as the baseline of Wilkins' next contract.
Contract Projection: Four Years, $100 Million
1. DT Chris Jones
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Best Scheme: 4-3 Base Defense
Kansas City Chiefs defensive lineman Chris Jones tops our board because of his scheme versatility. He's capable of playing inside or out and in a variety of defensive systems.
Under then-defensive coordinator Bob Sutton, Jones racked up 15.5 sacks in 2018, mostly playing as a 3-4 defensive end. Under current defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, he plays on the edge and at defensive tackle in a 4-3-oriented base defense.
Jones is coming off his fourth consecutive Pro Bowl season and already has 5.5 sacks and 18 quarterback pressures through eight games.
"I can play inside. I can play outside. I'm very comfortable with it," Jones said, per The Athletic's Nate Taylor.
Really, Jones should interest any team that doesn't already have an elite defensive front. However, he'll have more value in a four-man front that can play him at multiple positions.
The Bears, Browns and Cincinnati Bengals are teams that utilize 4-3 fronts that would benefit from adding a versatile player like Jones. The decision may come down to money for the 29-year-old.
According to Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio, Jones isn't trying to top Aaron Donald's market-leading three-year, $95 million contract. However, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him command close to that on the open market.
Jones is arguably the best and most versatile player at his position, and he's likely looking at his last chance for a lucrative, long-term deal.
Contract Projection: Three Years, $88 Million
Cap and contract information via Spotrac. Advanced statistics from Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted.
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