Ranking Top Fantasy Football Buy-Low, Sell-High Players After 2023 NFL Trade Deadline
NFL teams aren't able to trade now that the 2023 trade deadline has come and gone, but fantasy football managers should still be open for business.
The NFL trade deadline marks the unofficial halfway point of the fantasy football season. With typical trade deadlines in the fantasy world set a few weeks away, there's still time to make league-winning moves in November.
Midseason trades in fantasy are all about understanding value. Shipping off a player at the peak of their value or bringing back players whose brighter days are just ahead is the name of the game.
Buy-now candidates are ready to see their value explode, while sell-high candidates should be dealt now because their value has already peaked. Based on factors such as health, team situation and success, upcoming schedule and opportunity, we've highlighted the top players in each category here.
Buy-low candidates were ranked by the likelihood and degree of their potential value increase. Sell-high candidates were ranked by the likelihood and degree to which their value will go down.
5. Buy Low: RB Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
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After back-to-back top-15 finishes in PPR formats, Rhamondre Stevenson laid an egg against the Miami Dolphins in Week 8. He scored only seven points and finished outside of the top 30 RBs for the fourth time in eight weeks.
That kind of inconsistency can be maddening to fantasy managers trying to set their lineup every week. Now's the time to take advantage of that frustration.
The New England Patriots offense might not be very good, but Stevenson still gets plenty of opportunities to be a relevant fantasy option. He's ranked ninth in weighted opportunities by Player Profiler, a metric that takes into account things like targets and red-zone touches.
He's also ninth in goal-line rushing percentage, even with Ezekiel Elliott getting some of that role.
Stevenson isn't likely to hit his RB1 ceiling this year, but he can be a solid RB2 option. As an added bonus, he has some good matchups late in the season.
In Week 16, when most leagues will play their semifinals, he draws the Denver Broncos, who have given up the most points to running backs this season. In Week 17, he'll see a Bills defense that allowed him to score 14.5 PPR points in Week 7.
Stevenson could do his best work of the season come championship time.
5. Sell High: WR Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders
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Jahan Dotson finally had a breakout game against the Philadelphia Eagles last week. He finished as the WR7 in PPR leagues with eight catches for 108 yards and a touchdown in a shootout against the Eagles.
This was the Dotson that fantasy managers expected when they drafted him before the season. Dotson had seven receiving touchdowns in his rookie campaign along with five top-20 finishes in PPR formats.
This season hasn't panned out for Dotson, though. There are a lot of factors at play, including the emergence of Curtis Samuel. He has just six fewer targets than Dotson on the season but has five more catches and nearly two more yards per target.
In other words, Samuel has been a more efficient target for second-year quarterback Sam Howell. In most games, Howell has been able to rely more on Samuel to create yards after the catch and keep the chains moving.
Against the Eagles, it didn't matter who Howell was throwing the ball to. He finished the game with a season-high 397 yards and four touchdowns on 39-of-52 passing attempts.
With enough time, that performance is likely to reveal itself to be an anomaly. It's best to find someone who believes it wasn't and see if they would pay a premium for Dotson.
4. Buy Low: WR Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
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It's hard to consider a fantasy star like Davante Adams a buy-low candidate. But when he only has one top-24 finish in the last four weeks and his team just fired its head coach and replaced its veteran starting quarterback with a rookie, the term certainly applies.
Some frustrated Adams managers are probably ready to deal the receiver, but they might be jumping the gun. The change from Jimmy Garoppolo to rookie Aidan O'Connell could actually help Adams start churning out WR1 and WR2 outings again.
As Yahoo Sports noted, Adams has been much more productive with O'Connell throwing him the ball:
With Jimmy G at quarterback and Josh McDaniels calling the shots, the Raiders allowed Jakobi Meyers to eat into Adams' target share. The rookie should make sure that he goes to his best receiver early and often.
An Adams bounce-back is coming over the second half of the season.
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4. Sell High: WR Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
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Through eight weeks of the season, Courtland Sutton has established himself as a low-end WR2. He is ranked 23rd among receivers in PPR formats and has finished with at least 10.9 points in every game but one this season.
The question is whether that production is sustainable in a Broncos offense that is still trying to figure itself out.
The Broncos are coming off back-to-back wins after a 1-5 start to the season. Their 24-9 win over the Kansas City Chiefs was their best performance of the season, but Sutton drew only three targets in that game.
The best-case scenario for Sutton would have been getting traded to a team with a dynamic offense ahead of the deadline. Instead, he'll have to keep scoring touchdowns at an incredible rate on a mediocre-to-bad offense to remain relevant in fantasy.
Much of Sutton's production has been tied to touchdowns to this point. He has scored in six of the team's first eight games.
According to ESPN's Mike Clay, Sutton should have been expected to score four touchdowns this season based on his number of red-zone and end-zone looks. But he's already scored six, giving him one of the biggest disparities in the league.
Depending on Sutton to continue scoring touchdowns at that rate is wishful thinking. Moving him for a player who should expect some positive touchdown regression would be a shrewd move.
3. Buy Low: RB Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
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Tony Pollard would also be in contention for the "All-Frustrating" team if there were such a thing. He was drafted as an unquestioned RB1 with Ezekiel Elliott finally out of the way.
He looked the part for about two weeks, but he has been a disappointment since. From Weeks 3 through 8, he has only two games with double-digit PPR points and is 25th in scoring for running backs.
That came to a head with his performance against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 8. He had only 6.5 points despite the Cowboys having a great day offensively.
That, combined with an upcoming matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles' stout front seven, have his stock as low as it will likely go this season.
The bottom line is that Pollard is a talented back on a good offense. After a Week 9 matchup against the Eagles, the Cowboys get the New York Giants, Carolina Panthers and Washington Commanders. The Giants and Panthers are among the worst teams in the league at defending running backs, while the Commanders were middle of the pack and just traded away Chase Young and Montez Sweat.
Pollard is still fifth in the league in expected fantasy points. He's getting his opportunities. It's only a matter of time before some positive regression will have him paying off for managers.
3. Sell High: RB Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Rachaad White rewarded patient fantasy managers with back-to-back strong performances in Weeks 7 and 8.
After falling outside of the top 24 running backs in PPR formats in three of his first five games this season, he finished as the RB12 in Week 7 and RB10 in Week 8.
If possible, it's best to let someone else rely on him as a bonafide weekly starter, though. White's production has mostly been buoyed by great receiving performances.
Over the last two weeks, White has caught 13 of 13 targets for 135 yards. He's still mostly struggled on the ground with 22 carries for 73 yards (3.3 yards per carry).
White's value is almost entirely reliant on a large role in the passing game. He has 30 targets on the season, while the next-closest running back on the team (Ke'Shawn Vaughn) has four.
The problem is that Chase Edmonds returned from an MCL sprain last week and immediately had a small pass-catching role. He played eight snaps, ran five routes, drew three targets and got three carries, per PFF.
If White has a dip in pass-catching efficiency or volume, his fantasy stock is going to take a huge hit.
2. Buy Low: WR Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
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Rostering Chris Olave has been a frustrating experience this season. He has the role that everyone expected, but it hasn't yielded the kind of results you would like.
According to Player Profiler, Olave is No. 1 leaguewide in deep targets, No. 2 in air yards (with 131.3 per game) and No. 5 in routes run. In other words, few receivers are getting as many looks on potential big plays than Olave.
The problem is that he isn't connecting with Derek Carr. Despite all of those opportunities, Olave is the WR26 in PPR formats, averaging 12.7 points per game.
According to ESPN's expected fantasy points metric, which takes into account opportunity, Olave is seventh among all wide receivers with 141 expected fantasy points. He has the largest negative disparity of any receiver in the league.
What makes Olave's middling output even more frustrating is that Carr has had no problems hitting Rashid Shaheed for big plays. Shaheed had three catches for 153 yards and a touchdown last week against the Indianapolis Colts.
Olave is due for some big plays and positive touchdown regression. He has the most targets of anyone with one or fewer touchdowns this season.
The Olave breakout is coming. Wise managers should make sure it happens for their team.
2. Sell High: WR Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
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Justin Jefferson went down with a hamstring injury in Week 5, so there have only been four games where the Vikings had a healthy Jordan Addison and Jefferson playing together. Here are Addison's averages in those four games compared to the last four without Jefferson for the whole game.
- With Jefferson: five targets, 3.25 receptions, 46.3 yards and 0.5 touchdowns.
- Without Jefferson: eight targets, 5.75 receptions, 74.3 yards and 1.25 touchdowns
Clearly, Addison has benefited from not having Jefferson in the lineup. In those four games without Jefferson, his lowest-scoring finish was WR32, and he led all receivers in scoring in Week 7.
All of that production happened with Kirk Cousins at quarterback, but Cousins is now done for the season with a torn Achilles. The Vikings acquired Josh Dobbs from the Arizona Cardinals ahead of the trade deadline, but they're planning to start fifth-round rookie quarterback Jaren Hall in Week 9.
Ian Rapoport of NFL Media also reported that Jefferson is coming back "sooner than later" from the hamstring injury that put him on IR. None of that is good news for Addison's fantasy value moving forward.
It would be best to find an interested buyer than sticking around to find out what the Vikings passing attack will look like for Addison with a new quarterback and a target magnet in Jefferson returning to the lineup.
1. Buy Low: WR Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
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Both Tee Higgins and the Cincinnati Bengals have fallen well short of expectations thus far. The Bengals are 4-3, and outside of Week 2, when he finished second among all receivers in PPR points, Higgins has not been a starting-caliber option.
Last week, he finally showed some signs of life. With the Bengals putting up their best performance of the season, Higgins had five catches for 69 yards. It wasn't a week-winning showing, but it was far useful for fantasy managers than his previous duds.
That spark of life could be a sign of bigger things to come. Joe Burrow was at his most efficient against the San Francisco 49ers, connecting on 28-of-32 attempts for 283 yards and three touchdowns.
Most of Burrow and Higgins' struggles this season could be chalked up to Burrow's calf injury and Higgins' rib injury. With both getting the Week 7 bye to heal up, there's a good chance both have huge finishes to the season.
Burrow has already shown that his breakthrough is coming. Higgins won't be far behind.
1. Sell High: RB Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens
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Gus Edwards' fantasy stock is flying high after two weeks of elite production. The Gus Bus might have single-handedly swung several matchups with 144 total yards and a touchdown in Week 7 followed up by a three-touchdown game in Week 8.
That doesn't mean that the bus won't come to a sudden stop in Week 9, though.
Prior to this two-week breakout, Edwards finished outside of the top 24 running backs in PPR formats in five of six weeks. He was remarkably consistent in those games, scoring between 4.8 to 6.9 PPR points each week.
The bottom line is that Edwards' big weeks have come because he had an 80-yard reception in Week 7 and scored three touchdowns in Week 8. He still split snaps with running back Justice Hill, though.
Edwards' path to elite production is not sustainable. He might continue to command a healthy amount of the Ravens' rushing volume, but if that doesn't come with a high touchdown rate, he's going to fade back into flex play territory.
Flipping him for someone with more passing volume might be a wiser play.
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