Bryce Young vs CJ Stroud: What NFL History Tells Us About Rookie No. 1 vs. No. 2 Pick

Sunday in Charlotte, the 2023 NFL draft's top selection, quarterback Bryce Young, will go toe-to-toe with the No. 2 overall pick, quarterback C.J. Stroud, when Young's Carolina Panthers host Stroud's Houston Texans.

It marks just the fifth time in modern NFL history in which quarterbacks chosen first and second overall have faced each other as rookie starters.

How might this unfold? Let's look at the past occurrences and do our best to project.

Drew Bledsoe vs. Rick Mirer (1993)

Jim Davis/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

FOXBOROUGH, MA - SEPTEMBER 21: Patriots QB Drew Bledsoe comes up behind his Chicago counterpart Rick Mirer (#13), and gives him a pat of encouragement on the shoulder as they leave the field following New England's 31-3 victory. The two QB's were drafted No. 1 and No. 2 in the country five years ago. (Photo by Jim Davis/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)

The 1993 draft was only the second draft in the Super Bowl era in which quarterbacks went off the board 1-2, with Drew Bledsoe landing with the New England Patriots in the top spot and Rick Mirer going to the Seattle Seahawks right after that. That came 22 years after the Patriots and New Orleans Saints did so with Jim Plunkett and Archie Manning in the top two spots, but Plunkett and Manning didn't face off as rooks.

Three weeks into the '93 campaign, Bledsoe threw two interceptions in a 17-14 home loss to Mirer's Seahawks at Foxboro Stadium. However, it's not as though Mirer lit it up. In fact, he had just 117 yards on 12 completions before exiting the game with an eye injury.

Neither QB was great overall that year, but Mirer was the higher-rated of the two passers in '93 before Bledsoe obviously went on to have a stronger career with four Pro Bowls.

Anyway, the Swami has the highlights here.

Peyton Manning vs. Ryan Leaf (1998)

Jamie Squire

18 Apr 1998: Second overall pick Ryan Leaf (L) poses alongside first overall pick Peyton Manning (R) during the first round of the 1998 NFL Draft at Madison Square Garden in Manhattan, New York. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Squire /Allsport

Five years later, the third-ever QB 1-2 scenario took place when the Indianapolis Colts took eventual legend Peyton Manning before the San Diego Chargers selected eventual mega-bust Ryan Leaf.

The two met five games into that campaign, and it wasn't pretty.

Both completed 12 of 23 passes and posted sub-70 passer ratings. Manning threw his 12th of an NFL-high 28 interceptions on the season, but the Colts did win 17-12 and at least Manning had a much better rookie campaign (and wildly better career) than Leaf.

Chris Berman again with the "highlights."

Jameis Winston vs. Marcus Mariota (2015)

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - FEBRUARY 21: Quarterbacks Marcus Mariota of Oregon and Jameis Winston of Florida State look on during the 2015 NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium on February 21, 2015 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

Tim Couch and Donovan McNabb did not meet as 1-2 picks in 1999, nor did Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III in 2012. But in 2015, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota did just that in their respective career debuts when Mariota's Tennessee Titans hosted Winston's Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1.

Mariota completed all but two of 15 passes and threw four touchdown strikes as the Titans dominated 42-14, while Winston threw two interceptions in a poor performance.

Winston went on to make the Pro Bowl despite mediocre numbers on a mediocre team. Mariota was better statistically as a rookie, but neither has made much of his NFL career. At least Mariota started on a high, although for what it's worth, Winston got some revenge when the two met again last season while Mariota was an Atlanta Falcon and Winston was a Saint.

Mariota-focused highlights of the original battle here.

Trevor Lawrence vs. Zach Wilson (2021)

Michael Owens/Getty Images

EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY - DECEMBER 22: Zach Wilson #2 of the New York Jets and Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars chat prior to an NFL football game between the New York Jets and the Jacksonville Jaguars at MetLife Stadium on December 22, 2022 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

Jared Goff and Carson Wentz did not face each other as rookie first and second picks in 2016, making them the fourth 1-2 QB duo not to meet as rookies. But late in the 2021 season, top Jacksonville Jaguars pick Trevor Lawrence and No. 2 New York Jets selection Zach Wilson evened things out with the fourth 1-2 rookie QB battle since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.

On that occasion, Wilson (14-of-22 with a touchdown and no picks and 91 rushing yards) narrowly outplayed Lawrence (26-of-39 with no touchdowns or picks, a fumble and 37 rushing yards) as the Jets defeated the Jags at home.

Lawrence still probably had a slight edge on Wilson during a '21 season that wasn't pretty for either, but he really began to pull away by earning a Pro Bowl nod while Wilson lost his job in 2022. Now, Wilson is a backup being used only as an interim starter for the injured Aaron Rodgers.

Here are the moving pictures from the 2021 Week 16 battle.

What to expect Sunday

Cooper Neill/Getty Images

HOUSTON, TX - OCTOBER 15: C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans warms up prior to an NFL football game against the New Orleans Saints at NRG Stadium on October 15, 2023 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

Well, it's funny that Wilson and Leaf got the better of both Lawrence and Manning in terms of individual statistics in their head-to-head matchups, because the latter two quarterbacks either are or are on track to become legends. It's also interesting that the team quarterbacked by the No. 2 pick has won three of the four matchups, even though it's hard to argue any of them had/have had better careers than those chosen above them.

It just goes to show how little one game usually matters in the grand scheme, and serves as a reminder that we must be patient. Stroud has greatly outperformed Young this season, but he's probably on the better of the two teams (as is often logically the case when the team that picked second plays the team that picked first). And it's entirely possible that even if he and the Texans hammer Young's Panthers on the road Sunday, Young will bounce back and have a better career than Stroud.

Regardless, sit back and enjoy a rarity as two hungry and superbly talented young players go head-to-head this weekend.