NFL Week 7 Picks: Breaking Down Best Value Props and Stars' Outlooks

When it comes to NFL player props, some people want to know which players are the "safest" bets in a given week, while others want to see value. "Value" doesn't necessarily mean guaranteed money, of course, but it does mean a big return on a modest stake.

Of the hundreds of prop bets on the books for Week 7 of the NFL season, two of the following represent scenarios that the stats and trends tell us are likely to play out. (A running back is going to tear up a poor run defense? Groundbreaking.)

One of these props is a bit more of a risk, but if you've done your homework (don't worry; we've done it for you), the potential return is well worth it.

Let's break down three good-value player props ahead of Week 7.

Cooper Kupp Anytime TD (+100)

Harry How/Getty Images

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 15: Cooper Kupp #10 of the Los Angeles Rams scores a receiving touchdown against Kei'Trel Clark #13 of the Arizona Cardinals during the third quarter at SoFi Stadium on October 15, 2023 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Sure, Cooper Kupp has only scored one touchdown so far this season...but he's only played two games, after missing four weeks with a hamstring injury.

Once he returned, Kupp wasted no time reminding everyone why he's Matthew Stafford's favorite target. Last week against the Arizona Cardinals, Kupp led the team in all receiving categories with seven receptions for 148 yards and a touchdown.

In Week 7 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Kupp may see an even higher target share than his current healthy percentage (34.4, per FantasyPros). Last week against the Cardinals, the Rams lost running back Kyren Williams, who was putting together a nice season, and backup Ronnie Rivers to injuries.

Head coach Sean McVay tends to get pass-happy anyway (the Rams have the fifth-highest passing play percentage in the league, at 61.36), and with unknown quantities in the backfield, Stafford will be looking to Kupp and the pass-catchers to keep the ball moving, not to mention in the red zone.

This seems like an easy chance to double your money.

Luke Musgrave Anytime TD (+275)

Cooper Neill/Getty Images

LAS VEGAS, NV - OCTOBER 09: Luke Musgrave #88 of the Green Bay Packers runs with the ball against the Las Vegas Raiders during the second half at Allegiant Stadium on October 9, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

Unless you're a Green Bay Packers or Denver Broncos fan (and possibly not even then), nothing about the matchup between the two on Sunday afternoon screams "must-watch."

Even so, every game features at least a handful of intriguing prop bets, and for this one, it's that Packers tight end Luke Musgrave finds the end zone.

No, the rookie hasn't found the end zone yet this season. But he's becoming a go-to target for quarterback Jordan Love, seeing seven targets in Week 5 against the Las Vegas Raiders and eight in the Week 3 win over the New Orleans Saints.

Musgrave has seen a 17.6 percent target share this season, per FantasyPros, and has had three red-zone looks already. But the best part of this prop? The Broncos defense has been absolutely hopeless against tight ends, giving up the most receiving yards (75.7 per game) and the second-highest yards per reception.

Musgrave should have some healthy opportunities to find the end zone on Sunday.

Kenneth Walker III over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-120)

Dylan Buell/Getty Images

CINCINNATI, OHIO - OCTOBER 15: Kenneth Walker III #9 of the Seattle Seahawks runs with the ball in the first quarter against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium on October 15, 2023 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

Through five games, Kenneth Walker III is one of the league's most productive running backs, totaling 345 rushing yards on the season and averaging 69 yards per game.

Has Walker actually topped 79 rushing yards in a game? Only once, in Week 3. (In Week 4, he totaled 79 yards exactly.)

However, in Week 7 Walker goes up against an Arizona Cardinals defense that is giving up the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs per game (112.8). And it's a safe bet that Walker will be able to rack up some pretty gaudy numbers on those attempts; the Cardinals are allowing the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt, per Fantasy Pros.

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Find all the props for this week's games at DraftKings.

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