NFL Week 7 Odds: Best Picks to Bet on Sunday's Schedule
Week 7 of the NFL season continues on Sunday with an interesting slate of games capped by a powerhouse matchup between two 5-1 teams in the Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles.
From a betting perspective, this slate is a bit tough to read. No team is favored by more than eight-and-a-half points. Only one game has an over/under above 50 points. Eight games have spreads of four points or fewer.
But there are still some opportunities out there. With that in mind, here are some best-bet picks for against the spread, over/under and player props. All odds are via DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday at 8:30 p.m. ET.
For all the latest betting information and reaction, check out B/R Betting.
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ATS: Bills (-7.5, -112) over Patriots
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It's not a comfortable feeling to back a road team giving up more than a touchdown, but this may be a case where we have to simplify the matter at hand.
The 4-2 Buffalo Bills' ugly 14-9 win against the reeling 1-5 New York Giants last Sunday may lead bettors to be prisoners of the moment and back the Pats. In a way, that makes sense, because taking a home team getting seven-and-a-half points is enticing.
But here's the situation: The Bills are a very good football team that is third in scoring and points against. The 1-5 New England Patriots, who are second-last in scoring and 24th in points against, may end up with the NFL's worst record.
Buffalo has one of the best quarterback-wideout combos (Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs) in football, and that duo could light New England up Sunday. The defense, despite missing key players due to injury (e.g. Matt Milano, Daquan Jones), shouldn't have much issue with the Pats' O.
New England quarterback Mac Jones has two more interceptions (seven) than touchdowns (five). The Patriots haven't scored more than 20 points per game all year. On defense, the Pats are missing their two best players in Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez due to injury.
Look for the Bills to orchestrate a "get-right" game in New England while the Pats' season-long swoon continues.
O/U: Raiders at Bears (Over 38, -110)
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Yes, the Chicago Bears and Las Vegas Raiders will be starting backup quarterbacks in Tyson Bagent and Brian Hoyer, respectively, creating pessimism that this game could crack the 38-point over/under total.
Nine of the 12 games the Raiders and Bears have played have finished with more than 38 total points. The Bears have allowed the fourth-most points per game in the league, and the Raiders haven't done particularly well on that end either (14th-most PPG).
It's also fair to wonder if either team is going to have much of a dropoff at quarterback.
Raiders starter Jimmy Garoppolo is 23rd in quarterback rating and 21st in passing yards per game. He's thrown an NFL-high eight interceptions to seven touchdowns. He's also struggled to form a connection with Davante Adams of late (six catches, 74 yards last two weeks).
Bears signal-caller Justin Fields had two great games in Week 4 and 5 but has otherwise struggled mightily. He notably started the season completing just 58 percent of his passes for three touchdowns (four interceptions) and 5.98 yards per attempt through three games.
Both teams also have great talent on the offensive side of the ball.
The Raiders sport 2022 leading rusher Josh Jacobs, the aforementioned Adams (43 touchdowns the last three years) and rookie tight end Michael Mayer, who could be on the verge of a breakout after finally getting some targets and playing time (team-leading 75 yards last week).
The Bears have one great superstar in wide receiver D.J. Moore, who has 32 catches, 582 yards and five touchdowns this year despite an inconsistent offense that's bottom four in scoring. It's not impossible to see him torch Las Vegas on Sunday.
Ultimately, 38 points seems a touch too low, so the over is the pick.
Player Prop: Giants WR Jalin Hyatt (Over 19.5 Receiving Yards, -110)
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A changing of the guard took place in the wideout rotation on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills.
Isaiah Hodgins, who played an instrumental role in the offense in the back half of last season (including a playoff win), was limited to just 23 percent of the team's snaps. Meanwhile, rookie wide receiver Hyatt played a season-high 73 percent of the snaps.
Hyatt only saw four targets but turned them into three catches for 21 yards. He could have had 43 more yards on an incredible diving catch downfield if not for a questionable illegal man downfield penalty.
Simply put, the Giants need him on the field. They are 1-5 and at this point have nothing to lose except more games, which they've done enough of this season. The team is long overdue to incorporate an explosive talent like Hyatt more into the offense to jumpstart the lowest-scoring team in the league.
Hyatt is a deep play threat who averaged 18.9 yards per reception in his final year at Tennessee (67 receptions, 1,267 yards, 15 touchdowns). He showcased that talent in Week 2 against the Arizona Cardinals with two receptions for 89 yards.
From a betting perspective, it's very possible bettors can hit the over here on just one play. Hyatt has never seen more than four targets a game, but he only needs one shot to get you to 20 yards. Given his increased playing time, the guess here is that he finds himself past 29 yards with relative ease on Sunday.
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