21 Predictions for LeBron James' 21st NBA Season
LeBron James is about to tip off his 21st NBA season. That, in itself, is pretty absurd. He'll be just the seventh player in league history to log a minute in a 21st year.
But LeBron hasn't merely survived to this point.
He just averaged 24.5 points, 9.9 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.1 blocks and 1.1 steals in a 16-game playoff run that ended in the Western Conference Finals.
He's proven that he has more to give, and Bleacher Report's NBA staff is here to tell you what that is with the predictions below.
No. 1: This Will Be His 21st '20-5-5' Season
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LeBron has already annihilated countless NBA standards. He's done (and is still doing) things we previously couldn't have imagined.
For example, he has at least 500-plus minutes and averages of at least 20 points, five rebounds and five assists in each of his 20 campaigns.
Needless to say, that's the record. What's incredible is that Kobe Bryant, Larry Bird and Oscar Robertson are tied for the second most 20-5-5 seasons with...10.
And in 2023-24, LeBron's tally will move to 21.
—Andy Bailey
No. 2: Become Second 39-Year-Old to Score 50 in a Game
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LeBron will turn 39 in December. That means he'll have about four months of regular-season action as a 39-year-old this season. Right now, Jamal Crawford is the only 39-year-old in league history with a 50-point game, having dropped 51 on the Dallas Mavericks on April 9, 2019.
Last season, LeBron's game-high was 48, but he'll get back to the half-century mark in 2023-24. And he'll do it post-birthday.
—Andy Bailey
No. 3: Career-Low in Minutes Per Game
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Credit to the Lakers' depth, but James will play a career-low in minutes this season.
L.A. had a strong summer, continuing a trend dating back to before the 2022-23 trade deadline. The Lakers have enough offensive and defensive firepower to let James pace himself.
Last year, he averaged 35.5 minutes a night (55 games), but he'll dip to as low as 31 or 32, which would be well below his career-low in 2020-21 (33.4).
—Eric Pincus
No. 4: Average 25+ Points Per Game, Again
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While James won't have to average the combined 29.6 points per game he put up the past two years for the Lakers to win, don't expect the NBA's all-time leading scorer to stop putting the ball in the basket, either.
The 25-point-per-game line seems to be important to James, as he's crossed that plateau each of the past 19 years. While he's come close to going under a few times (25.3 points per game or lower in four of the past nine years), James hasn't averaged less than 25 a night since his rookie season.
Don't expect this streak to end now.
—Greg Swartz
No. 5: Lowest Assist Average Since Rookie Year
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LeBron has more than defied Father Time for several years now, but there has to be at least some level of decline at some point. In 2023-24, his assist average will be one of the areas of decline—even if it's subtle.
He hasn't been below six dimes a game since his rookie campaign (5.9), but his average over the past two years is 6.5. His willingness to defer to Austin Reaves during L.A.'s most recent postseason run suggests others may get more playmaking opportunities this season.
—Andy Bailey
No. 6: Bounce-Back Year from 3 (but Closer to Career Average of 34.5 Percent)
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James shot his worst percentage from three-point range as a Los Angeles Laker last season (31.2 percent). Whether that dip was due to age or injury (foot issues), look for that issue to resolve some with a bounce-back year from deep.
James will shoot closer to his career average of 34.5 percent. Remember, last year wasn't his worst—James shot 30.8 percent through the 2015-16 season and then jumped to 36.3 the following year.
—Eric Pincus
No. 7: Threaten Career-High 3PA
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LeBron's athleticism doesn't look like it's going to abandon him entirely, but naturally it has to slip a little bit, at some point, maybe (right?).
As he approaches 40, those slips are probably going to become more pronounced, and that could mean more reliance on his jumper.
He probably won't quite get to his career high of 8.0 attempts per game, but exceeding last season's 6.9 is in play.
—Andy Bailey
No. 8: Put Pressure on Front Office at the Deadline
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It's not unusual for James to voice his opinion at the trade deadline, a now time-honored tradition that's happened over and over again.
Don't expect this season to be any different.
James is fully aware of the Lakers' trade assets, a collection that includes either using the 2029 or 2030 first-round pick along with young guards like Max Christie and rookie Jalen Hood-Schifino. New contracts for players like D'Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura and Jarred Vanderbilt could be used to help piece together a trade package as well.
If the Lakers aren't playing up to expectations come February (or even if they are) expect there to be some healthy pressure applied to the front office by James as he chases a fifth championship.
—Greg Swartz
No. 9: Play More Than 60 Games
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Fewer minutes per game will help James pace himself more successfully through the season.
James has averaged 55.6 games a year through five seasons with the Lakers (the 2020-21 campaign was only 72), but he'll reach 60 this year. Some of that will come from the Lakers adjusting to the NBA's new resting policy, but a better team around him will help keep James healthier through 2023-24.
—Eric Pincus
No. 10: Most Points in a 21st Season
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This one's pretty straightforward. Vince Carter has the record for points in a 21st season with 562. Barring injury, LeBron will smash that.
He totaled 1,590 last season.
—Andy Bailey
No. 11: Most Rebounds in a 21st Season
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This doesn't require much more explanation than the 21st-season points record.
Carter totaled an all-time-high 194 boards in his 21st campaign. The 457 LeBron grabbed last season suggest he'll cruise past Carter's mark with ease.
—Andy Bailey
No. 12: Most Assists in a 21st Season
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You knew this was coming.
Once again, Carter is the current record holder here at just 87. LeBron had 375 dimes last season.
This record's going down, too.
—Andy Bailey
No. 13: Become 2nd All-Time for 10-Assist Games After Turning 39
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John Stockton has plenty of bonkers marks when it comes to assists. One is that he had 50 games with at least 10 assists after turning 39. Steve Nash is second on that list with a whopping four such games.
LeBron will put five 10-assist games together after his December birthday and move into second place on this hyper-specific list.
—Andy Bailey
No. 14: Enter Top 10 In Playoff Blocks
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James already holds the NBA record for most playoff games, points and steals (along with a second-place ranking in assists and fourth in rebounds). This year he could crack the top 10 in another major category: blocks.
While the playoff block leaders are headlined by legendary big men like Tim Duncan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Hakeem Olajuwon, James can become just the second non-big man (Julius Erving) to crack the top 10.
Currently 11th overall with 270 career playoff rejections, James needs just 12 total blocks to pass Kevin McHale to jump to 10th. Given his current postseason average of 1.0 per game, look for James to join this club in the second round of the playoffs.
—Greg Swartz
No. 15: First NBA Player to 40K Points
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James became the NBA's all-time leading scorer last season. Now, he needs to make sure his record is safe forever.
His 38,652 career regular-season points are just 54 games away (at an average of 25 points per game) from hitting 40,000. James has averaged 55.6 games per season since joining the Los Angeles Lakers in 2018-19, which means it may take him until the end of the regular season to reach this milestone.
Considering that only 54 players in history have reached 20,000 career points and just eight have scored 30,000 or more, James reaching 40,000 may truly be an unbreakable amount.
—Greg Swartz
No. 16: Lakers Finish Top-4 in the West
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The Lakers spent much of last season simply surviving the misfit of Russell Westbrook alongside LeBron and Anthony Davis. From just about the moment he was acquired, it was clear those three just weren't going to jell, but the front office wasn't able to move him until last season's trade deadline.
The current supporting cast fits LeBron, AD and their skills better, and it's more equipped to handle any absences from LeBron. Even in a packed Western Conference, it's good enough to earn home-court advantage in the first round.
—Andy Bailey
No. 17: Become a Regular at USC Games
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James is no stranger as a sideline guest to support family and friends, going all the way back to his days of attending University of Akron basketball games to cheer on high school teammates Romeo Travis and Dru Joyce III.
With his oldest son Bronny now a freshman at USC and planning to play this season following a summer hospitalization following a cardiac arrest, expect LeBron to be on the sidelines supporting the Trojans on a regular basis. It helps that Cypto.com Arena and the Galen Center are only about two miles apart.
—Greg Swartz
No. 18: Pass Reggie Miller for Total Threes (Regular and Postseason)
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There are plenty of categories in which LeBron is already the all-time leader regardless of age, but there are rungs yet to be climbed on a few ladders.
One is the career leaderboard for total threes made in the regular and postseason. He's currently fifth there, 159 behind legendary outside shooter Reggie Miller.
Over the past three years (playoffs included), he's made 144 per campaign. In 2023-24, he'll get to at least 160.
—Andy Bailey
No. 19: Pass Magic Johnson for Total Assists (Regular and Postseason)
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There won't be nearly as much suspense for LeBron passing his next mark on the all-time assist leaderboard.
He's just 44 behind Magic Johnson. Even if his assist average drops to 5.0, he'd pass Magic and move into fourth all-time in his first nine appearances.
—Andy Bailey
No. 20: 20th All-NBA Selection
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As is the case with 20-5-5 seasons, LeBron already has this record and a pretty hefty buffer zone between himself and second place.
His 19 All-NBA selections ranks first all time, with Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar all four behind.
If the earlier prediction that puts L.A. in the top four proves true, you can bet LeBron had a lot to do with it. That, another 20-5-5 campaign and the name recognition of arguably the best player of all time will be enough to get him his 20th All-NBA nod.
—Andy Bailey
No. 21: Make 20th All-Star Game, Passing Kareem
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Last season, James tied Kareem Abdul-Jabbar with his 19th All-Star Game selection. This season, his 20th will finally place James by himself as the NBA record-holder.
James has been chosen as an All-Star every single season since 2004-05, his second in the NBA. Even if he misses some time or his stats are down a bit this year, it's important to remember that fan votes count for 50 percent (along with 25 percent from players and 25 percent from media).
Expect James to once again be voted in, joining a group that includes Michael Jordan, Abdul-Jabbar and Dirk Nowitzki (commissioner selection) as the only players in history to make an All-Star Game at age 39 or older.
—Greg Swartz
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